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  来源:中国商报

  国常会再度释放重要信号。4月18日召开的国务院常务会议指出,要持续稳定股市,持续推动房地产市场平稳健康发展。相关举措一旦推出,要直达企业和群众,提高落地效率,确保实施效果。

  中国商业经济学会副会长、华德榜创始人宋向清表示,此次国常会释放的政策信号具有显著的系统性和前瞻性,其核心在于通过逆周期调节与结构性改革的双重发力,构建“稳增长、促转型、惠民生”的政策闭环。

  持续稳定股市,持续推动房地产市场平稳健康发展,这是国务院近期对房地产市场的又一次表态。国常会将“持续稳定股市”置于“持续推动房地产市场平稳健康发展”之前,这一表述顺序的调整对比今年2月底中央政治局会议和3月初政府工作报告中“楼市在前、股市在后”的惯例,此次“逆序”释放出政策层对资本市场定位的转变,资本市场在经济全局中的战略地位提升。【此前报道:周末持续重磅!下周A股,行情可期】

  上海易居房地产研究院副院长严跃进认为,这次国常会继续提到房地产的内容有非常强的信号。严跃进分析,稳楼市工作取得了阶段性成果,去年3个月加今年3个月累计6个月的努力,楼市止跌回稳态势明显。“二季度房地产相关表述可能会延续‘持续推动房地产市场平稳健康发展’的说法,工作重心将调整到‘持续推动’。”

  可以看到,国常会对于股市的提法提到了效果的落地,这次与楼市等一并,提及“相关举措一旦推出,要直达企业和群众,提高落地效率,确保实施效果。”“一旦”“落地效率”“确保实施效果”等措辞,更像是体现了政策端“应急响应”向“长效治理”的根本性转变,减少“文件空转”的出现,不排除后续还有更多实质性的政策出台。

  严跃进预计,二季度还会有一些持续推动房地产的利好政策,类似近期的杭州契税优化政策、青岛十二条政策,无锡、南京等一系列地方政策,持续为房地产二季度的向好发展提供动力。

  这次国常会同样将楼市与股市放在了一起,二者对于经济而言皆有重要性。可以说,国常会的这一重要定调为我国股市和房地产市场的发展指明了方向。未来,随着各项政策措施的落地实施,有望推动股市和房地产市场逐步走向健康稳定的发展轨道,为我国经济的高质量发展提供有力支撑。

  在资本市场方面,新“国九条”明确要求优化上市公司分红机制、扩大回购规模,2025年一季度A股共有668家上市公司实施回购,回购金额合计达293.74亿元,切实将政策红利传导至投资者。房地产领域则通过“保交楼”专项借款、房企白名单融资等工具,实现资金从金融体系向民生项目的精准滴灌,有效缓解市场焦虑。

  广东省住房政策研究中心首席研究员李宇嘉提出,无论是全国两会,还是近期的国务院表态,都把房地产放在了扩大内需和促进消费的层面。李宇嘉认为,下一步的政策,一方面要在土地规划、报建、配套等方面给予更多的优惠政策,鼓励开发商提供品质好价格适宜的好房子,让好房子覆盖更多人群;另一方面,要加快促进二手房以旧换新,形成新市民在租赁房和二手房之间的由租转买、二手房和新房之间刚需和改善的循环。

  (注:本文不构成任何投资建议)

  盘前大事

  • 最新贷款市场报价利率(LPR)将于4月21日出炉;4月24日,国家统计局将发布流通领域重要生产资料市场价格变动情况;4月25日,中国人民银行将发布4月中期借贷便利(MLF)数据。

  • 4月20日,北京清华校园惊现机器人和机器狗领操名场面,其带领清马跑团做热身操,动作灵活中又带点僵硬,反差萌引发网友热议:“我承认机器人跳操有点东西!”这已不是机器人首次出圈——从春晚扭秧歌、出席运动会,到和网红“甲亢哥”斗舞,再到跑马拉松,机器人的技能树不断刷新。

  • 当地时间4月18日,中国动画电影《哪吒之魔童闹海》——也就是《哪吒2》在法国迎来首映,来自法国各地的影迷齐聚在巴黎地标性建筑大雷克斯影院,共同观看这部他们期待已久的电影。据了解,《哪吒2》将于4月23日正式在法国超过200家影院同步上映。法国发行方期待,影片中蕴含的东方神话意象和文化魅力,能为法国观众带来绝佳的视听体验。

  本报记者 刘 琪

  今年一季度,我国经济开局良好,高质量发展向新向好,彰显了中国经济强大的韧性和潜力。然而,当前外部环境更趋复杂严峻,国内有效需求增长动力不足,经济持续回升向好基础还需巩固。

  4月18日召开的国务院常务会议指出,面对复杂严峻的外部环境,要深入贯彻中央经济工作会议部署,加力落实《政府工作报告》明确的政策措施,锚定经济社会发展目标,加大逆周期调节力度,着力稳就业稳外贸,着力促消费扩内需,着力优结构提质量,做强国内大循环,推动经济高质量发展。

  东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青对《证券日报》记者表示,当前外部经贸环境变数骤然加大,无疑需要国内宏观政策加快对冲步伐,加大力度实施逆周期调节。此次会议提出“锚定经济社会发展目标”,这意味着今年“5.0%左右”的GDP增速目标不会下调。在外部不利因素影响下,国内稳增长政策需要进一步加码,把提振内需作为首要任务,着力扩大消费。

  “面对外部环境扰动,我国宏观政策还有空间和余力,将根据形势需要和外部影响动态调整,加强逆周期调节。”民生银行首席经济学家温彬在接受《证券日报》记者采访时认为,为应对冲击,年内储备政策工具箱还包括降准降息、结构性工具扩容、增量财政、类“平准基金”、生育补贴、消费支持、地产收储等,助力做大做强国内大循环,提振消费和投资。金融部门也将多方施策稳固金融支持力度,充分挖掘国内有效需求,促进金融总量合理增长,并助力经济逐步向新向好。

  王青表示,综合考虑当前外部经贸环境变化、房地产市场走势及物价水平,二季度“择机降准降息”时机已经成熟。这能有效激发企业和居民融资需求,扩投资促消费,提振市场信心,是当前对冲外部波动最有力的手段。

  在中信证券首席经济学家明明看来,我国政策工具箱储备充足,可以通过各项宏观政策的协同加码实现稳增长。货币政策方面坚持支持性立场,可以适时降准以保持流动性合理充裕,适时降息以进一步降低企业融资成本,支持实体经济发展。

  财政政策方面,明明认为,可以通过提高赤字率和增发特别国债的方式提供2万亿元左右增量财政资金,主要用于提振消费,如发放消费券、育儿补贴等,此外还可以用于拉动投资、支持科技创新和战略性新兴产业等领域。

  王青则预计,接下来财政促消费政策力度会进一步加大。除了加快推进3000亿元超长期特别国债资金支持耐用消费品以旧换新外,不排除各地加大促消费支持范围,将更多普通消费品和服务消费纳入进来的可能,这会有效应对可能出现的“出口转内销”需求。

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