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含羞待C炼瓷 - 在国际市场的影响
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含羞待C炼瓷 - 在国际市场的影响

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  中新社北京4月25日电题:中央政治局会议释楼市新信号,明确“持续巩固”稳定态势

  中新社记者庞无忌

  25日召开的中共中央政治局会议对房地产市场的表述发生变化。会议指出,加快构建房地产发展新模式,加大高品质住房供给,优化存量商品房收购政策,持续巩固房地产市场稳定态势。

  与去年年末召开的中央经济工作会议和今年全国两会政府工作报告“持续用力推动房地产市场止跌回稳”的表述相比,此番会议对房地产市场的表述变为“持续巩固房地产市场稳定态势”,反映去年四季度以来,稳楼市各项政策显效,房地产市场持续向着止跌回稳的方向迈进。

  作为观察楼市走势的先行指标,今年以来,中国部分城市土地市场表现活跃。据中指研究院统计,今年前四个月,22个重点城市土地成交月度平均溢价率从去年年末的5%-10%升至20%左右。

  分析认为,在这一新形势下,此番政治局会议通过“优存量”与“拓增量”双轨并行、“提质”与“稳量”同步推进、短期稳定与长期发展统筹兼顾,推动房地产市场进入“量稳质升”的新阶段。

  其一,“优存量”与“拓增量”双轨并行。

  在优化存量方面,此番会议提及,加力实施城市更新行动,有力有序推进城中村和危旧房改造;优化存量商品房收购政策。存量优化调整也有利于增量市场的活跃。

  广东省住房政策研究中心首席研究员李宇嘉认为,城市更新的范围包括城市市政基础设施更新、老旧小区改造以及城中村和危旧房改造等。其对稳投资、带动上下游产业的作用非常显著。下一步,城市更新行动有望迎来创新性专项债、中长期国债以及创新性货币政策等的支持。

  中指研究院政策研究总监陈文静指出,随着城市更新行动推进,今年以来已有不少城市出台配套的房票安置政策。据中指监测,今年以来超20个地方优化房票政策。近期厦门扩大房票使用范围至二手房,且继续鼓励房票用于购买新房,将进一步打通一二手链条,促进市场库存去化。

  中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬指出,存量商品房收购是促进房地产市场止跌回稳、保障和改善民生的重要抓手,地方在实施过程中还面临一些堵点,需要在收购主体、价格和用途方面给予城市政府更大自主权,并及时研究推出新的支持措施。

  其二,“提质”与“稳量”同步推进。

  在稳楼市政策“组合拳”推动房地产市场交易保持平稳同时,此番会议明确提出加大高品质住房供给。李宇嘉表示,目前激活楼市需求的一个重要抓手就是利用“好房子”等供给侧的产品创新牵引和拉动需求,从而带动新房和二手房、刚需和改善性住房的良性循环,既提质又稳量。今年楼市的一大特点就是大量高品质的改善性住宅项目集中入市,激活需求。

  陈文静指出,今年,“好房子”首次被写入政府工作报告。3月,住建部发布国家标准《住宅项目规范》,并将在5月1日落地实施,部分城市也发布了“好房子”建设相关标准,预计未来相关政策将进一步完善,更多城市落地标准规范,助力高品质住房建设,“好房子”供应有望放量。

  其三,短期稳定与长期发展统筹兼顾。

  在强调“持续巩固房地产市场稳定态势”的同时,会议还提出加快构建房地产发展新模式。

  陈文静表示,加快构建房地产发展新模式,有利于行业中长期平稳健康发展,预计2025年更多新模式的相关配套政策将进一步完善、落地。

  58安居客研究院院长张波认为,这标志着房地产行业从规模扩张转向质量提升的转型路径进一步清晰,也将引导房地产行业从“增量扩张”向“品质竞争”转变。(完)

热点栏目自选股数据中心行情中心资金流向模拟交易客户端

  来源:中金点睛

  特朗普政府试图通过加征关税促使美国贸易逆差收窄,制造业回流,我们认为这两个目标难以通过关税实现。首先,关税难以使得美国贸易逆差收窄。从理论来看,提升关税并不一定能够缩减逆差(扩大顺差)。根据勒纳对称定理,对进口征税等同于对本国的出口征税。关税难以促使制造业回流美国。全球供应链对中国的依赖度比较高,而且无论是从劳动者数量、质量,还是就业意愿来看,美国制造业回流都将面临着劳动力短缺的问题。美国制造业成本高,也是其制造业回流的挑战。特朗普关税或对美国产生滞胀式影响,美国衰退风险加大。除了“滞胀”风险,特朗普的减税、削减支出和关税组合或将损害美国大多数家庭,对低收入人群损害更大,加剧美国内部不平衡。实际上,从经济视角来看,美国没有非常突出的外部失衡问题,但内部分配问题很严重。

  图表:美国豁免“对等关税”的电子产品对中国依赖度较高

  资料来源:USCensusBureau,中金公司研究部

  2025.04.23|张文朗黄亚东等

  02

  宏观Macroeconomy

  从汇率、利率到风险溢价

  资料来源:Wind,中金公司研究部

  2025.04.21|周彭张文朗

  03

  中金研究CICCResearch

  关税冲击影响的全球视角

  资料来源:各公司公告,中金公司研究部

  2025.04.19|杨鑫陈健恒等

  04

  宏观Macroeconomy

  高关税或触发“衰退式”降息

  资料来源:Haver,中金公司研究部

  2025.04.21|肖捷文林雨昕等

  05

  策略Strategy

  哪些企业有望受益于“扩内需”?

  本次美国关税冲击之下,A股市场显现较强韧性,经历对等关税宣布后一个交易日的短暂调整后,近两周延续修复态势。主要原因为以下几个方面:宏观政策上,本次我国政策针对特朗普的关税政策应对更为从容,与美国面临的“滞胀”环境不同,我国所处的低通胀环境使得政策发力方向更为明确,市场对政策发力也有一定预期。资本市场方面,维稳资金及时注入流动性,上市公司集中发布增持与回购公告,维护市场信心;另外美国超预期的关税加征幅度,反而加快市场消化关税事件的速度。向前看,随着前期回调缺口逐渐修复,我们认为市场可能进入政策观察期,可能受益内需增长和政策预期的相关板块或仍有相对表现。

  2025.04.20|李求索魏冬等

  2025年4月24日-25日,国际货币基金组织(以下简称基金组织)在美国华盛顿特区召开第51届国际货币与金融委员会(IMFC)会议,会议讨论了全球经济金融形势、基金组织工作等议题。中国人民银行行长潘功胜出席会议并发言。中国人民银行副行长宣昌能参加会议。

  会议认为,世界经济正处于关键转折点。近期贸易紧张局势加剧,导致不确定性和市场波动,给经济增长和金融稳定带来风险。会议重申支持强劲的、以份额为基础的、资源充足的基金组织作为全球金融安全网的核心,期待各国尽快完成第十六次份额总检查下份额增资的国内批准程序。会议认为,基金组织份额占比调整应旨在更好反映成员在全球经济中的相对比重,同时保护最贫困国家发言权。

  潘功胜指出,当前全球经济增长动能偏弱,下行风险突出。近期美国滥施关税,严重侵犯各国正当权益,严重损害以规则为基础的多边治理体制,严重冲击全球经济秩序,破坏全球经济长期稳定增长;同时也引发全球金融市场剧烈波动,发达经济体尤为严重。这对全球金融稳定造成威胁,对新兴市场经济体和发展中国家构成严峻挑战。

  潘功胜强调,各国亟须加强宏观经济政策协调,支持多边贸易体系,推动经济全球化朝着更加开放、包容、普惠、均衡的方向发展,共同促进全球经济金融稳定。中国坚持真正的多边主义,是经济全球化和贸易自由化的倡导者、世贸组织的坚定维护者和支持者,积极参与全球经济治理,致力于建设开放型世界经济。中国愿进一步深化与基金组织的合作,支持基金组织在维护全球经济金融稳定方面发挥更大的作用。

  潘功胜指出,基金组织作为全球金融安全网的核心,继续推动份额改革对提高基金组织的合法性、有效性和代表性至关重要。基金组织是以份额为基础的机构,份额占比调整是治理改革最重要的组成部分,应尽快实现份额占比调整,使其反映成员国在全球经济中的相对地位,增加新兴市场和发展中国家的代表性。中国呼吁各方尽快完成内部程序,早日推动第十六次总检查承诺的份额增资生效,并加快第十七次份额总检查的准备工作,包括对新份额公式的讨论,维护基金组织信誉,早日实现有意义的份额调整。

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