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来源丨时代商业研究院

作者丨陆烁宜

编辑丨郑琳

作为苹果公司(AAPL.O)“果链”上的一员,蓝思科技(300433.SZ)自2007年开始迅速发展,营收规模扩张数倍,但随着智能手机时代的红利潮逐渐离去,蓝思科技如今也走到了转型的十字路口。

3月31日,蓝思科技正式向港交所递表,欲冲击港股IPO。而在净利润“开倒车”、毛利率持续下滑的背景下,蓝思科技如今的资本故事还能如愿打动投资者吗?

从此次募资用途来看,蓝思科技拟将部分募资用于智能汽车零部件、智能机器人零部件及智能穿戴设备的开发及生产,似乎正准备从一个手机零部件供应商向更全面的智能硬件制造商转型。

事实上,蓝思科技早已跨界智能汽车行业。2024年,智能汽车与座舱类产品收入已占该公司总收入的近10%。不过,该行业头部玩家实力较强,诸如华为、百度(BIDU.O)、德赛西威(002920.SZ)等,蓝思科技的竞争站位仍有待观察。

4月3日,就公司盈利能力下降、大客户依赖、跨界新业务发展情况等问题,时代商业研究院向蓝思科技发送邮件并致电其董事会办公室询问,工作人员称将向相关业务部门转达。4月27日,时代商业研究院再次致电该公司,但电话无人接听。截至发稿,对方仍未回复。

4年毛利率下降13个百分点,营收翻倍净利润却“开倒车”

蓝思科技的发展史,最早可以追溯到2003年成立的深圳市蓝思科技有限公司,而其前身蓝思科技(湖南)有限公司(下称“蓝思有限”)则于2006年12月成立。

2007年,蓝思有限通过了苹果公司的供应商认证,成为“果链”的一员。同年,苹果发布了初代iPhone,智能手机时代就此开启。作为苹果公司的供应商,蓝思科技随之迎来高速增长。

2015年3月,蓝思科技正式登陆创业板,迄今已上市10周年。2024年,蓝思科技的营收已从2015年的172.27亿元增长到698.97亿元,增加了3倍多。今年一季度,蓝思科技的营收已达到170.63亿元,与2015年全年营收相比,基本相当。

然而,营收增长的同时,蓝思科技的盈利水平却止步不前。Wind数据显示,2015年,蓝思科技的净利润达到15.42亿元,而今年一季度的净利润却仅为4.54亿元。

这并不是今年一季度独有的现象。事实上,自2020年净利润达到巅峰后,蓝思科技的净利润就一直在“开倒车”。Wind数据显示,2020—2024年,蓝思科技的营收从369.39亿元增长至698.97亿元,接近翻倍;而净利润却在2020年达到49.55亿元后出现大幅下降,2021—2024年均低于40亿元。

自2020年以来,蓝思科技的盈利能力逐渐走弱。Wind数据显示,2020—2024年,其毛利率分别为29.44%、20.92%、19.21%、16.63%、15.89%,其间累计下降13.55个百分点。今年一季度,其毛利率进一步降至12.80%,较2020年锐减超过一半。

跟行业均值相比,蓝思科技毛利率降幅显然更快。Wind数据显示,2020—2023年,其所属的消费电子零部件及组装行业(申万三级)的毛利率均值分别为24.58%、21.69%、21.03%、20.21%。而截至今年4月27日,该行业63家已披露2024年年报的A股上市公司,毛利率均值为20.12%。可见,虽然行业毛利率也持续下降,但是降幅远小于蓝思科技。

蓝思科技盈利能力下滑,本质上是智能手机红利见顶的结果,其主要客户苹果的业绩同样反映出这一点。Wind数据显示,2022—2024财年,苹果营收同比增速分别为7.79%、-2.80%、2.02%,净利润同比增速分别为5.41%、-2.81%、-3.36%,业绩增长疲软。

跨界智能汽车产业链,或为抢占市场降价销售

在智能手机红利见顶的情况下,蓝思科技试图跨界智能汽车、机器人等新兴行业,以打造第二增长极。

招股书显示,此次赴港IPO,蓝思科技除了拟将募资用于支持新一代智能终端折叠屏功能件及其相关配件的研发和产能建设,还计划将部分募资用于开发智能汽车内外饰部件、智能机器人的产能配套及眼镜开发以及智能穿戴类等产品的扩产。

事实上,早在2019年年报中,蓝思科技就曾提出,在技术进步、政策支持、消费升级的背景下,全球智能汽车、新能源汽车产业迎来爆发式发展,产销量大幅增长,配套产业链加速完善,车载电子产品产销量大幅增长,高端智能汽车板块将成为该公司未来快速增长和重要战略组成部分。

不过,时代商业研究院发现,直到2023年年报披露,蓝思科技才正式报告了新能源汽车(或智能汽车)及智能座舱类、智能头显与智能穿戴类产品的收入,或表明其跨界已初见成效。

年报显示,2022—2024年,该公司的新能源汽车(或智能汽车)及智能座舱类产品收入分别为35.84亿元、49.98亿元、59.35亿元,占营收的比例分别为7.67%、9.17%、8.49%;智能头显与智能穿戴类产品收入分别为35.39亿元、31.04亿元、34.88亿元,占营收的比例分别为7.58%、5.70%、4.99%。

从产品收入增速来看,跟智能头显与智能穿戴类产品相比,智能汽车与智能座舱类产品的收入增长更为稳定,且更有可能成为其第二增长曲线。

不过,根据中商产业研究院今年3月5日发布的《2025年中国智能座舱重点企业及行业竞争格局分析(图)》显示,中国智能座舱企业可以分为全栈科技巨头、传统Tier1供应商、软件/OS服务商、芯片与域控厂商、垂直技术供应商等六大类,代表企业包括华为、百度、德赛西威、华阳集团(002906.SZ)、零跑汽车(09863.HK)、科大讯飞(002230.SZ)等。

可见,目前智能座舱行业有多家互联网巨头和软硬件巨头参与,作为跨界的企业,蓝思科技能否在该产业链中争得一席之地,仍有待观察。

此外,从毛利率来看,蓝思科技智能汽车与智能座舱类产品的毛利率呈下降趋势。年报显示,2022—2024年,该类产品的毛利率分别为20.02%、15.47%、10.17%,其中2024年毛利率较2022年近乎腰斩,且2023—2024年连续两年均低于整体毛利率。招股书显示,2023年毛利率下降,主要受产能爬坡期折旧摊销费用较高以及海外生产基地的运输和原材料成本较高等因素影响。

值得注意的是,蓝思科技还存在降价销售的情况。招股书显示,随着与客户加深合作,蓝思科技开始提供如电池板这种更低价的结构件及模块,导致智能汽车及智能座舱类的结构件及模块的平均售价由2022年的583.8元降至2023年的418.5元,同比下降28.3%。

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