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知情人士透露,尽管美国关税带来不确定性,但日本央行官员认为目前没有必要改变现有的逐步加息立场。知情人士表示,日本央行官员认为,特朗普政府的关税行动和其他贸易伙伴针对美国的报复性行动可能会削弱日本经济,并可能推迟日本央行实现通胀目标的进程。就目前而言,日本央行官员的整体经济预测基本保持不变,因为他们正在等待更多数据来分析美国关税的影响。

知情人士表示,鉴于经济可能出现的各种情景,日本央行官员认为,现在将这些情景纳入基本预测并对日本央行的政策立场做出重大改变还为时过早。

知情人士表示,在5月1日为期两天的政策会议结束时,官员们将在审查最新数据和信息后就政策利率做出最终决定。知情人士表示,尽管日本央行将提出其基本情景预测,但该行可能会明确表示,由于关税带来的不确定性,经济前景尚不明朗。

市场普遍预计日本央行将在政策会议上维持利率不变。

知情人士称,面对经济和通胀的各种风险,日本央行一直在思考在最坏的情况下采取什么行动才是合适的。

据知情人士透露,日本央行还可能考虑在政策会议结束时发布的季度经济报告中下调价格预期。这一变化将源于日元走强、油价下跌以及可能出现的经济疲软。日本央行可能将2027财年核心通胀的首次预测定为2%左右。

周一,日元兑美元汇率触及七个月高点,自日本央行1月份发布经济展望报告以来,日元兑美元已升值约11%。而同期油价已下跌约13%。日本政府还决定从本财年开始基本免除高中学费,经济学家认为此举可能会使物价指数下降约0.2个百分点。

鉴于日本严重依赖进口能源和商品,日元走势对日本经济产生了重大影响。

知情人士表示,日本央行官员还可能讨论将本财年的经济增长预期从1.1%下调。巴克莱经济学家预计,考虑到关税的影响,经济增长预期将下调至0.5%左右。

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