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深圳市(龙华区、盐田区、龙岗区、宝安区、罗湖区、光明区、福田区、坪山区、南山区)

  今日(4月15日)A股延续缩量震荡,两市成交额仅1.08万亿元,环比缩量超2000亿,三大指数全天走弱,沪指尾盘翻红微涨0.15%,深证成指、创业板指分别下跌0.27%、0.13%。

  量能萎缩下,盘面回归风扇摆头模式,热点难以持续。今日大消费接力向上,军工、半导体、信创等科技题材尽墨。

  市场轮动的背后,是外部不确定性扰动下市场风险偏好的收缩,行情回归僵持与拉锯战模式。

  以守为攻,资金向经营稳健、高股息、低波动等确定性方向聚焦的“暗线”逐渐涌现。今日银行板块全天逆市走强,A股顶流银行ETF(512800)场内价格收涨1.47%,在市场持续震荡背景下稳步向上,强势6连阳!

  拆解银行板块的韧性密码,外部扰动或将持续抬高市场波动率,银行股息吸引力进一步凸显。截至4月14日,银行ETF(512800)跟踪的中证银行指数股息率(近12个月)为6.36%,较10年期国债收益率(1.66%)超额4.7%,且仍在继续走阔;叠加板块市净率PB仅0.65倍,安全边际充分,政策组合拳亦有望对板块构成支撑。

  值得一提的是,有“红利之源”称号的自由现金流策略在震荡行情中也表现出了明显的防御性。全市场首批跟踪“沪深300自由现金流指数”的ETF——300现金流ETF(562080)今日上市,场内价格顽强收涨0.2%。

  分析指出,宏观局势瞬息万变,“现金为王”时代或已到来,“现金奶牛”公司得益于较高的经营质量和股息率,拥有更强的穿越周期的能力和股东回报潜力,配置价值突出。

  【ETF全知道热点收评】下面重点聊聊银行、现金流两个主题的交易和基本面情况。】

  【能涨抗跌,波动下稳步六连阳,解析银行韧性密码】

  今日银行板块全天逆市走强,A股42只上市银行超9成收涨,整体涨幅中位数达1.24%,显著优于大盘。具体看,城农商行表现较强,常熟银行领涨逾4%,渝农商行涨超3%,浦发银行、重庆银行、成都银行、农业银行等6股涨超2%。

  A股顶流银行ETF(512800)全天稳步向上,场内价格收涨1.47%,在市场高波动背景下日线强势6连阳,较收复4月7日下跌仅一步之遥。

  近期市场快速轮动,高股息+低波稳健的确定性暗线持续演绎。解析银行韧性密码,作为经营稳健、高股息、低波动的代表板块,在高波环境下,银行的类固收配置价值有望进一步凸显。

  ①业绩表现稳健:从年报看,银行经营发展稳健,业绩增速持续改善,资产质量保持向好。政策组合拳亦有望为银行基本面带来支撑,预计金融增量政策配合宽松财政政策加快落地,资负两端利率传导效率加强缓解银行息差压力。

  ②分红盛宴开启:目前已有24家银行宣布拟派发现金红利,包括此前已派发的2024年度中期分红在内,这24家银行2024年度累计分红金额超过5700亿元。其中国有六大行全年累计分红金额合计超4200亿元,较上年均有所提升;股份行方面,招商银行以504.40亿元的分红总额领跑,现金分红比例达到35.3%,此外,兴业银行2024年度现金分红比例首次突破30%。

  ③股东、高管真金白银霸气“护盘”:年内已有邮储银行、光大银行等多家银行股东披露增持公告,华夏银行、浙商银行等也公告了高管增持自家银行股份,不仅为银行股提供了资金支持,更重要的是向市场传递了积极的信号,有助于增强投资者信心。

  截至4月14日,银行ETF(512800)跟踪的中证银行指数市净率PB为0.65倍,仅位于近10年31.9%分位点的历史相对低位,具有较高的安全边际;与此同时,中证银行指数股息率(近12个月)为6.36%,较10年期国债收益率(1.66%)超额4.7%。

  顺势而起,攻守兼备!看好银行板块配置性价比的投资者可以关注银行ETF(512800)。银行ETF(512800)被动跟踪中证银行指数,成份股囊括A股42家上市银行,近三成仓位布局工商银行、农业银行、交通银行等国有大行,捕捉“高股息”主题机会;约七成仓位聚焦招商银行、兴业银行、江苏银行等高成长性股份行、城商行、农商行,是跟踪银行板块整体行情的高效投资工具。

  【A500之后,基金公司疯卷“自由现金流”ETF!562080抢跑上市!】

  大变局之下,自由现金流策略异军突起,备受关注!4月14日,市场继A500ETF之后再现发行潮,10家基金公司同日发售自由现金流策略ETF,另有5只仍在募集期,这意味着,当前,全市场共有15只自由现金流策略ETF同台发行竞技。

  与此同时,同策略产品抢跑上市!4月15日,国内首批300现金流ETF(562080)正式登陆上海证券交易所,成为沪市首只上市的自由现金流策略ETF,也是全市场首只上市的300现金流ETF。

  中证指数公司信息显示,300现金流ETF(562080)被动跟踪沪深300自由现金流指数(简称:300现金流),聚焦大盘蓝筹“现金牛”。相比现金流策略指数,300现金流专注在沪深300核心资产中挖掘“真金”宝藏,具有“聚焦大市值,赛道更核心;更强防御力,能攻亦可守”的突出优势。

  二级市场上,300现金流ETF(562080)首日上市表现稳健,场内价格收涨0.2%,跑赢沪指(+0.15%)、创指(-0.13%)、沪深300(+0.06%)等主要指数,场内交投活跃,全天成交1.87亿元。

  成份股表现上,新和成涨5.32%领涨50只“现金牛”公司,华润三九涨3%,美的集团、山金国际、陕西煤业集体涨超2%。下跌方面,中国中免重挫3.38%居首,长春高新、中国铝业、云铝股份跌2%左右。

  当前,全球经济不确定性上升,国内经济转向高质量发展,利率长期趋势下行等多重背景交织,“现金为王”时代或已到来,“现金奶牛”公司得益于较高的经营质量和股息率,拥有更强的穿越周期的能力和股东回报潜力,配置价值突出。

  招商证券表示,一方面,当前中国经济进入高质量增长阶段,上市公司增速波动降低,资本开支高峰过去,投资回归到获取自由现金流这一“真金白银”本质。另一方面,在经济环境承压时,价值策略呈现“质量→自由现金流→分红”的递进关系。相比红利策略,自由现金流策略具有长期收益更高、增长弹性更强的优势。

  特别提醒:近期市场波动可能较大,短期涨跌幅不预示未来表现。请投资者务必根据自身的资金状况和风险承受能力理性投资,高度注意仓位和风险管理。
数据、图片来源:沪深交易所等。

  风险提示:银行ETF被动跟踪中证银行指数,该指数基日为2004.12.31,发布于2013.7.15;300现金流ETF被动跟踪沪深300自由现金流指数,该指数基日为2013.12.31,发布日期为2024.11.12。指数成份股构成根据该指数编制规则适时调整,其回测历史业绩不预示指数未来表现。文中提及个股仅为指数成份股客观展示列举,不作为任何个股推荐,不代表基金管理人和基金投资方向。任何在本文出现的信息(包括但不限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等)均只作为参考,投资人须对任何自主决定的投资行为负责。另,本文中的任何观点、分析及预测不构成对阅读者任何形式的投资建议,本公司亦不对因使用本文内容所引发的直接或间接损失负任何责任。投资人应当认真阅读《基金合同》、《招募说明书》、《基金产品资料概要》等基金法律文件,了解基金的风险收益特征,选择与自身风险承受能力相适应的产品。基金的过往业绩并不预示其未来表现,基金管理人管理的其他基金的业绩并不构成基金业绩表现的保证。根据基金管理人的评估,银行ETF(512800)、300现金流ETF(562080)风险等级为R3-中风险,适宜平衡型(C3)及以上的投资者,适当性匹配意见请以销售机构为准。销售机构(包括基金管理人直销机构和其他销售机构)根据相关法律法规对以上基金进行风险评价,投资者应及时关注基金管理人出具的适当性意见,各销售机构关于适当性的意见不必然一致,且基金销售机构所出具的基金产品风险等级评价结果不得低于基金管理人作出的风险等级评价结果。基金合同中关于基金风险收益特征与基金风险等级因考虑因素不同而存在差异。投资者应了解基金的风险收益情况,结合自身投资目的、期限、投资经验及风险承受能力谨慎选择基金产品并自行承担风险。中国证监会对以上基金的注册,并不表明其对该基金的投资价值、市场前景和收益做出实质性判断或保证。基金投资须谨慎。

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