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  华尔街见闻

  中信建投证券认为,美债的到期偿付和新增供给规模确实不低,但并未边际恶化。真正需要关注的问题在于:美国企业债市场面临到期与基本面恶化的双重压力;美债的真正供给考验,或在下半年债限解决和减税落地,预计美联储会开启新一轮结构性QE进行配合。

  被市场热烈讨论的“2025年美债到期规模大幅上升至9万亿美元”、“6月到期规模就高达6万亿美元”两则消息,究竟如何看待?

  4月23日,中信建投证券在研报中指出,市场热议美债的到期偿付压力,存在一定误解,美国国债的到期偿付和新增供给规模确实不低,但并未边际恶化。真正需要关注的问题在于:

风险提示及免责条款

  市场有风险,投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议,也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资,责任自负。

专题:聚焦2025年IMF和世行春季年会

  鉴于美国提高关税、全球需求疲软以及金融环境趋紧,国际货币基金组织(IMF)下调了亚洲经济增速预测,调整幅度为新冠疫情以来最大。

  IMF亚太部主任KrishnaSrinivasan接受采访时表示,预计今年亚洲经济将增长3.9%,较此前预测下调0.5个百分点。2026年增速预测下调至4%。

  鉴于关税谈判和贸易前景的不确定性较高,这些预测仍存在显著的下修风险。

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