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当前,房地产行业正站上新周期的关键转折点,二季度有望成为政策优化的重要窗口期,届时房价有望迎来真正拐点。

中房报记者许倩丨北京报道

进入3月份,房价上涨的城市数量明显多了起来。

4月16日,国家统计局发布2025年3月70个大中城市商品住宅销售价格变动情况。70城中,24个城市新房价格环比上涨,比2月份增加6个;10个城市二手住宅价格环比上涨,比2月份增加7个。这是市场信心明显增强的重要信号。

从新房市场来看,3月份,70城新房价格指环比下跌0.1%,跌幅与1、2月持平;同比下跌5%,跌幅比2月份收窄0.2个百分点,且已持续5个月收窄。照此趋势,房价止跌回升拐点将近。

从二手房市场看,3月份,70城二手住宅价格环比下跌0.2%,跌幅比2月份收窄0.1个百分点;同比下跌7.3%,跌幅收窄0.2个百分点,且已连续6个月收窄。二手房价格亦已跌至触底区间。

一线城市楼市回暖明显。

3月份,一线城市新房价格环比上涨0.1%,涨幅与1、2月份相同,这是自2024年12月份以来连续4个月反弹。其中,上海和深圳分别上涨0.7%和0.1%,北京和广州分别下降0.2%和0.1%。

一线城市二手住宅价格环比由2月份下降0.1%转为上涨0.2%。其中,北京、上海、深圳分别上涨0.5%、0.4%和0.3%,广州下降0.2%。

二三线城市房价跌幅也在持续收窄,尤其是二线城市止跌态势明显。

3月份,二线城市新房价格环比持平于2月份;二手住宅价格环比下降0.2%,但跌幅比2月份收窄0.2个百分点。三线城市新房价格环比下降0.2%,降幅收窄0.1个百分点;二手住宅价格环比下降0.3%,降幅收窄0.1个百分点。

广东省城乡规划院住房政策研究中心首席研究员李宇嘉分析称,当前房价表现仍相对较弱的主要原因在于二三线城市拖累。一方面,二三线城市3月份新房供给较多,但市场去化有限,导致库存压力较大。克而瑞统计,30城整体供求比由2月的0.5增至3月份的0.72。另一方面,很多开发商仍坚持以价换量的销售策略。但在整体低位徘徊的基础上,市场呈现出筑底的走势。

3月份,有24个城市新房价格环比上涨。其中,上海上涨0.7%,居全国第一;其次是杭州、成都,上涨0.5%;宁波上涨0.4%;天津、长沙、济南、宜昌,均上涨0.3%。

上海易居房地产研究院副院长严跃进分析称,上海是本轮楼市复苏的“领头羊”,城市基本面和房价走势都非常不错。杭州、成都是近期市场关注度最高的城市,其土地交易行情也非常好。宁波和天津则是楼市深度调整的代表,当前房价指数表现好,说明恢复状态不错,具有启发意义。

从市场供求关系来看,据克而瑞数据,3月份,武汉、长沙、西安、北京、厦门新房市场供过于求,南京、宁波、南宁、杭州、合肥、福州供求持稳。天津、苏州、西安、郑州、宁波则因短期开盘项目品质提升,去化率骤增。

10个城市二手住宅价格环比上涨。其中,杭州以1%涨幅领涨全国,北京上涨0.5%,上海上涨0.4%,深圳、南昌、扬州均上涨3%。而杭州、上海新房价格同样涨幅居前,说明随着新房交易量上升,二手房市场供求关系亦持续改善。

房价下跌严重的城市,同样值得关注,说明楼市行情存在严重分化。新房市场上,丹东以0.7%跌幅领跌,包头环比下跌0.6%。二手房市场上,秦皇岛、包头、惠州以0.8%跌幅领跌,郑州下跌0.7%。

李宇嘉表示,这一轮楼市表现,重点城市止跌回稳的趋势更加明显。主要原因在于,这些城市前期流入人口多,前些年房价高位徘徊制约购买力释放,近几年房价回调导致观望,由此积累的刚需庞大。此外,这些城市常住人口规模大,老市民改善住房需求的潜力也很大。近年来政策积极降低门槛、降低成本,对刚需和改善需求的释放效应比较明显。同时,去年四季度住房消费释放充分,二手房低价房源大量消耗,近期成交房源多为次低价房源,或业主继续降价的意愿降低,比如价格逐步企稳,由此导致了新房、二手房价格率先止跌回稳。

对于二季度房价走势,多位业内人士预计,房价上涨城市数量会进一步增加。

中央层面一直高度重视楼市企稳。4月15日,中共中央政治局常委、国务院总理李强在北京调研时强调,要进一步释放市场潜力,着力推动“好房子”建设,加快构建房地产发展新模式,促进房地产市场平稳健康发展。

当前,房地产行业正站上新周期的关键转折点,二季度有望成为政策优化的重要窗口期,届时房价有望迎来真正拐点。

值班编委:李红梅

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