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财联社4月26日讯(编辑刘蕊)在特朗普政府贸易政策不确定性等因素影响下,市场对于美国经济前景的信心再起近期也持续下滑。高盛策略师表示,自3月初以来,外国投资者或已卖出630亿美元的美国股票。

不过,如果以史为鉴,相比于过去数十年间的多次资金外流情况,此次外资流出美股的规模仍然相对较小。

欧洲投资者一直在抛售美股

自2月20日以来,标普500指数在创下纪录新高后便持续震荡下跌,尤其是在4月2日特朗普公布所谓的“对等关税”政策后,美股更是大幅跳水,直到近期才有所回调。从月线图上看,截至本周五收盘,标普500指数在3月和4月分别下跌5.75%和1.54%。

高盛指出,在这一期间,来自高频资金流动的数据显示,欧洲投资者一直在推动抛售美股,而其他地区则继续买入美股。

高盛策略师丹尼尔•查韦斯(DanielChavez)领导的投资组合团队在报告中写道:“这种动态对美股估值构成了重大风险,因为在2025年初时,外国投资者在美国股票中的持股比例达到了创纪录的18%。”

美股历史上的外资流出潮

高盛指出,自1980年以来,美股历史上共出现过10次外国投资者大量抛售的情况,平均抛售额占美国总市值的0.6%,相当于今天的3000亿美元左右。

相比较之下,近期外国投资者的这次抛售“比过去几十年的平均水平持续时间更短、程度更浅”。

如果回顾历史,在过去的外资抛售美股期间,美股总体表现仍具韧性,能够抵御外资外流的冲击——除了1987年、1990年和2022年的三次例外情况下,在过去10次外资流出的情况下,有7次美股仍然能保持上涨。

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