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今晚爸妈不在家(骨科) 作者:鲜鱼:揭开古老文明与现代萌宠的奇幻交汇
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  今日(4月21日),化工板块再度上攻,反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF(516020)全天震荡上行,盘中场内价格最高涨幅达到1.05%,截至收盘,涨0.87%,日线三连阳。

  成份股方面,广东宏大领涨8.37%,金发科技、扬农化工双双收涨超4%,卫星化学、润丰股份、航锦科技等收涨超3%。

  资金面上,基础化工板块今日获主力资金大举涌入。Wind数据显示,截至今日收盘,基础化工板块单日获主力资金净流入37.74亿元,净流入额在31个申万一级行业中高居第4;近5日,基础化工板块更是以77.31亿元的吸金额在31个申万一级行业中高居第3。

  成份股业绩方面,截至今日收盘,化工ETF(516020)标的指数细分化工指数50只成份股中已有27只公布了2024年业绩。营业收入方面,27只个股中有17只营业收入实现了同比增长,其中8只同比增长率达到两位数;归母净利润方面,27只个股中有26只实现了盈利,其中14只归母净利润实现了同比增长,齐翔腾达归母净利润同比增长率达到108.26%。

  从估值方面来看,Wind数据显示,截至上个交易日(4月18日)收盘,化工ETF(516020)标的指数细分化工指数市净率为1.84倍,位于近10年来4.31%分位点的低位,中长期配置性价比凸显。

  展望后市,浙商证券表示,在美国关税大幅提升背景下,出口压力增大,外需承压,预计高层或将继续加大经济刺激力度;在政策加持下,内需有望复苏,看好受益内需的磷肥、钾肥、民爆龙头;AI和芯片材料细分龙头等。

  湘财证券指出,美国本轮加征关税,预计对我国化工品直接出口的影响有限,或将通过下游制造环节间接影响化工产品需求。我国化工产业链一体化程度高,在全球范围内竞争优势显著,我国化工产业有望受益于高端产品国产化替代加速、内需景气提升、全球贸易格局重塑等发展机遇。

  银河证券表示,短期,政策刺激下,化工行业有望迎来估值修复,建议关注业绩具有韧性的核心资产,及估值具备弹性的优质新材料标的;中期,看好化工结构性投资机会,建议重点关注成长属性标的。

  如何把握化工板块反弹机遇?借道化工ETF(516020)布局效率或更高。公开资料显示,化工ETF(516020)跟踪中证细分化工产业主题指数,全面覆盖化工各个细分领域。其中近5成仓位集中于大市值龙头股,包括万华化学、盐湖股份、恩捷股份、华鲁恒升、天赐材料、荣盛石化等,分享强者恒强投资机遇;其余5成仓位兼顾布局磷肥及磷化工、氟化工、氮肥、煤化工、钛白粉等细分领域龙头股,全面把握化工板块投资机会。场外投资者亦可通过化工ETF联接基金(A类012537/C类012538)布局化工细分领域龙头。

  注:需要特别提醒的是,近期市场波动可能较大,短期涨跌幅不预示未来表现,基金投资可能产生亏损。请投资者务必根据自身的资金状况和风险承受能力理性投资,高度注意仓位和风险管理。

  图片及数据来源:沪深交易所等,截至2025年4月21日。风险提示:化工ETF被动跟踪中证细分化工产业主题指数,该指数基日为2004.12.31,发布日期为2012.4.11,指数成份股构成根据该指数编制规则适时调整。Wind数据显示,细分化工指数近5个完整年度收益率分别为2020年:51.68%;2021年:15.72%;2022年:-26.89%;2023年:-23.17%;2024年:-3.83%。标的指数成份股构成根据该指数编制规则适时调整,其回测历史业绩不预示指数未来表现。文中指数成份股仅作展示,个股描述不作为任何形式的投资建议,也不代表管理人旗下任何基金的持仓信息和交易动向。基金管理人评估的该基金风险等级为R3-中风险,适合适当性评级C3(平衡型)及以上投资者。任何在本文出现的信息(包括但不限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等)均只作为参考,投资人须对任何自主决定的投资行为负责。另,本文中的任何观点、分析及预测不构成对阅读者任何形式的投资建议,亦不对因使用本文内容所引发的直接或间接损失负任何责任。基金投资有风险,基金的过往业绩并不代表其未来表现,基金管理人管理的其他基金的业绩并不构成基金业绩表现的保证,基金投资须谨慎。

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