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4月21日,GTC泽汇资本表示,随着美国假期的结束,投资者开始重新评估市场风险,黄金价格因此出现下跌。尽管黄金被认为可能被高估,但由于美元的持续走弱,黄金仍然得到了良好的支撑。近期,由于市场对美国经济增长放缓和通胀上升的担忧,美元汇率下跌至三年低点,这为黄金价格提供了支撑。此外,美元的走弱也反映了市场对美国贸易政策不确定性的担忧,特别是特朗普政府的关税政策。

  GTC泽资本进一步认为,尽管黄金价格在短期内可能会经历回调,但长期来看,黄金作为避险资产的价值依然显著。市场对贸易政策的不确定性以及全球经济前景的担忧,增强了黄金的避险需求。此外,尽管美国政府宣布暂停部分关税措施,但贸易紧张局势的长期影响仍存在,这使得黄金的避险价值更加凸显。

  GTC泽资本还强调,黄金价格的上涨部分是由于对新关税的预期。预计相关方面将在4月2日宣布对包括加拿大和欧盟在内的国家实施报复性关税。汽车关税预计将在4月3日跟进,可能会使车辆价格上涨数千美元。GTC泽汇资本解释道:“关税本质上是对商品的税收,具有通胀性。如果关税范围扩大,成本上升,这将增强对黄金等通胀对冲工具的需求。”

  GTC泽汇资本总结认为,尽管当前市场环境复杂,但黄金作为一种避险资产的价值依然显著。投资者应密切关注贸易政策的变化以及全球经济数据的动态,以便及时调整投资策略。

4月21日,FPG财盛国际表示,美国政府已正式开始制定第11轮国家外大陆架(OCS)石油和天然气租赁计划,此举将对美国能源产业产生深远影响。内政部长DougBurgum启动了这一进程,首先由海洋能源管理局(BOEM)发布信息请求(RFI),开启了为期45天的公众评论窗口期。此举将决定未来海上钻探的地点和时间。

  FPG财盛国际进一步认为,美国能源政策正在发生转变,从气候口号转向增加化石燃料的使用。这一转变可能不会立即转化为实际的石油产量,但可能成为政治舞台上的一场大戏。然而,有一点是明确的,海上石油开采活动正在获得新的剧本,而这一剧本的第一章才刚刚开始。

  FPG财盛国际分析称,美国目前拥有2227个活跃的海上租赁,其中469个正在生产石油和天然气。在2024财年,这些海上地点为联邦政府创造了70亿美元的收入,约占美国石油总产量的14%。然而,目前的五年计划(2024-2029)仅包括三次租赁销售,全部位于墨西哥湾。新的第11轮计划可能会大幅改变这一状况,尽管目前尚未确定具体的租赁区域。

  FPG财盛国际总结认为,尽管美国在能源领域拥有丰富的资源和先进的技术,但美国政府的关税政策和贸易争端可能对全球能源市场的稳定性和可持续性构成威胁。投资者需密切关注全球能源市场的动态变化,以及各国政府在能源政策上的调整,以应对未来的不确定性。

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