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转自:财联社

财联社4月25日讯(编辑刘蕊)美东时间周四,明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行行长卡什卡利(NeelKashkari)发表了一系列讲话,表达了对美国长期贸易政策不确定性可能造成的经济影响的担忧。

他表示,当前美国贸易政策的极端不确定性让他对未来美国出现大规模裁员的风险感到“紧张”。

他认为,美国需要尽早解决与主要合作伙伴的贸易争端,这将有助于驱散笼罩在美国经济上的不确定性阴云。

特朗普关税可能引发裁员潮?

卡什卡利在明尼苏达大学的一场问答活动中表示:“如果我们与主要贸易伙伴的贸易争端得到解决,将减轻极大的不确定性。”

卡什卡利表达了对当前美国经济不确定性的担忧。他警告称,在美国总统特朗普的关税驱动的经济不确定性下,最终可能导致未来美国出现大规模裁员。

他表示,“尽管我们还没有看到它(裁员潮)出现”,但他正对这一方面密切关注。

他警告称,虽然迄今为止美国企业的裁员人数尚未上升,但一些企业已开始未雨绸缪,为不确定性持续存在时可能出现的裁员情况制定情景规划。

贸易不确定性关乎信心

卡什卡利认为,对美国经济来说,今年可能发生的最乐观的事情将是“解决与主要贸易伙伴的贸易争端。对于全国大大小小的企业和各地的人们现在都在经历的极端不确定性来说,这将是一个最佳的解药。”

他警告称:“这是一个关于信心的问题:如果我们所有人同时感到紧张……它真的会拖累经济,真的会让经济放缓。”

卡什卡利还谈论了美国贸易逆差与利率之间的关系。他指出,多年来,美国挥之不去的贸易逆差一直是由外国投资推动的,这使得利率保持在低位。相反,如果美国转向贸易顺差——并因此失去其作为“唯一的资本首选目的地”的地位——借贷成本将上升。在这种情况下,中性利率,即货币政策既不刺激也不限制经济增长的利率,最终也会更高。

在其他方面,卡什卡利重申了他对加密货币的负面立场:“除了作为一种投机工具,它在发达经济体中基本上是无用的。它只是个玩具。”

(财联社刘蕊)

  25日盘中,金融科技数次短线拉升,截至发稿,恒宝股份涨停,指南针涨超6%,东华软件、银信科技、恒银科技等多股涨超2%。热门ETF方面,金融科技ETF159851)短线拉涨超1%,实时成交额超2亿元,盘中溢价频现,资金大幅净申购。

  消息面上,全国人大常委会法工委发言人、研究室主任25日在全国人大常委会法制工作委员会发言人记者会上表示,将完善有利于推动高质量发展的体制机制方面,制定民营经济促进法、国家发展规划法、金融法、金融稳定法、耕地保护和质量提升法,修改反不正当竞争法、企业破产法、招标投标法、农业法、渔业法、民用航空法、中国人民银行法、银行业监督管理法。

  中长期投资逻辑来看,金融科技弹性十足,对流动性改善反映迅速。目前资本市场稳市政策频出,成交活跃度有望显著提升,金融科技板块有望持续受益:互联网券商基本面预期有望持续改善,金融IT等作为顺周期高弹性品种,持续受益于交易量提振和金融信创,C端炒股软件景气度向上,B端金融IT需求逐步释放。

  多角度把握金融科技机会,重点关注金融科技ETF159851)及其联接基金(A013477C013478)。资料显示,金融科技ETF(159851)被动跟踪中证金融科技主题指数,全面覆盖了跨境支付、AI应用、互联网券商、华为鸿蒙、金融IT信创等热门主题。

  数据来源:沪深交易所等。

  风险提示:金融科技ETF被动跟踪中证金融科技主题指数,该指数基日为2014.6.30,发布日期为2017.6.22,指数成份股构成根据该指数编制规则适时调整,其回测历史业绩预示指数未来表现。文中指数成份股仅作展示,个股描述不作为任何形式的投资建议,也不代表管理人旗下任何基金的持仓信息和交易动向。基金管理人评估的该基金风险等级为R3-中风险,适宜平衡型(C3)及以上投资者。任何在本文出现的信息(包括但不限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等)均只作为参考,投资人须对任何自主决定的投资行为负责。另,本文中的任何观点、分析及预测不构成对阅读者任何形式的投资建议,亦不对因使用本文内容所引发的直接或间接损失负任何责任。基金投资有风险,基金的过往业绩并不代表其未来表现,基金管理人管理的其他基金的业绩并不构成基金业绩表现的保证,基金投资须谨慎。

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