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钢铁侠3高清种子,轻松追番,随时随地享受漫画带来的无限乐趣!
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钢铁侠3高清种子,轻松追番,随时随地享受漫画带来的无限乐趣!

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4月27日,英派斯(002899)发布公告,公司拟向全体股东每10股派发现金红利0.75元(含税),预计总派发金额为1099万元。

  一、政治局会议后市场或如何演绎?

  本周五(4月25日)中央政治局会议召开,延续并强化了此前市场形成的政策认知框架。会议强调,要坚持稳中求进工作总基调,统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争,坚定不移办好自己的事,扩大高水平对外开放,以高质量发展的确定性应对外部环境急剧变化的不确定性,内外政策一致性特征进一步显现。

  会议对经济运行作出“向好态势”的积极表述,相比去年12月“总体平稳、稳中有进”和9月“正视困难”的表述明显提升,反映出政策信心持续增强。一季度我国GDP同比增长5.4%,国民经济开局良好,生产与消费数据全线好转,为政策基调的乐观强化提供了基础。在此背景下,本次会议在市场高度关注的地产、生育等领域展现出明显克制,延续了政策定力特征。

  具体政策层面,本次会议继续坚持结构性、精准性的应对方向,强调对受关税冲击较大企业提高稳岗返还比例,加快内外贸一体化,稳定内需与外贸结构,主要应对特朗普关税政策带来的压力。同时,继续以“上证指数与人民币汇率”为抓手,加强市场预期管理。整体来看,需求侧大规模刺激仍未启动,政策依然处于“筹备期”,以积蓄空间、增强韧性为主。

  在总量政策基调进一步明确后,市场博弈重心将逐步从内部政策期待转向中美谈判进展,尤其是围绕关税调整的宏观变量演绎。由于短期内国内不会主动加大刺激力度,未来一段时间内,中美关税博弈将成为主导市场风格切换的重要催化因素。

  受此影响,恒生科技指数所代表的AI产业链,以及海外供应链占比高的出口链板块,短期内有望相对占优。而前期依赖地产、消费政策预期而上涨的板块,以及受避险情绪推动的黄金等资产,阶段性受益逻辑或将削弱,进入整理期。

  就中美降关税前景来看,我们认为年内仍存在达成交易型协议的可能,但难度不容低估。中美互信基础弱化,结构性分歧加剧,全面型协议(如2019年第一阶段协议)实现概率较低。不过,在特朗普关注TikTok出售进展,以及考虑到国内经济压力变化的背景下,双方在年内就关税进行局部调整、达成“交易型协议”的空间仍然存在。

  若下半年经济下行压力加剧,中美在关税领域的缓和窗口或有望打开,届时关税水平预计将从目前的高位显著回落。

  二、投资建议

  当前仍然建议维持“高低切换”的思路。二季度仍处于筹码消化期,尽管在资本市场政策支持下指数或保持韧性,但高估值,高杠杆的中小市值个股估值仍需时间消化。

  配置方面,当前建议关注防御类资产以及中美关系缓和下的科技主线:

  一、在总量政策偏稳、结构风险上升的背景下,防御类资产依然具有较高配置价值。

  其中长端国债,低位周期股,以及高股息红利资产如电力、公用事业等方向,具备估值支撑与现金流安全边际。

  二、恒生科技板块业绩增速较高,且估值仍处于低区间。受益于中美关系缓和预期,恒生科技板块估值或回暖。

  三、黄金、核电、军工等“安全类资产”在中美缓和预期下若出现调整,则或构成中期较好的布局机会。

  风险提示:全球流动性超预期收紧,市场博弈的复杂性超预期,政策变化的节奏复杂性超预期等。

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