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  财联社4月23日讯(编辑潇湘)越来越多证据表明,随着美国总统特朗普发起的关税战持续升级,有关外资加速抛售美国国债的担忧在4月确实可能已演变为现实。

  最新的信号来自纽约梅隆银行提供的跨境资金流动数据(iFlow),该银行为全球客户管理着约53万亿美元的资产,并提供有关资产配置趋势的见解。

  纽约梅隆银行美洲宏观策略师JohnVelis在周二发布的客户报告中指出,“美国国债的避险属性正遭受日益严峻的质疑,我们的数据清晰印证了这一趋势转变。”

  Velis通过图表展示了跨境美国国债资金流动的情况:截至4月11日当周,外资抛售规模“接近偏离正常值一个完整标准差”,创下近年来最剧烈的单周抛售纪录。

  纽约梅隆银行的数据显示,自4月4日以来的11个交易日中,有8个交易日出现了外国卖盘。

  华尔街始终担忧,随着特朗普运用关税工具重塑全球贸易格局,美债对海外投资者的吸引力可能持续衰减。

  白宫宣称加征关税旨在引导制造业回流,但美国财政赤字高度依赖主要贸易伙伴的融资支持。若外资持续撤离美债,或将推高债券收益率,导致美国政府融资成本攀升,更将波及美国中产阶级——住房抵押贷款和汽车贷款等长期利率均与美债收益率挂钩。

  据业内最新估计,目前外国投资者持有的美债比例约为30%,已明显低于了2008年时接近50%的水平。

  日本财务省周二公布的初步数据也显示,截至4月4日的一周内,日本私人机构(包括银行和养老基金)抛售了价值175亿美元的长期外国债券,接下来的七天内又出售了36亿美元。这也是自2005年有记录以来,两周内最大规模的抛售之一。

  本月的美债抛售潮,始于4月2日特朗普意外推出超预期规模的对等关税。一周后,债市剧烈震荡迫使特朗普宣布对部分国家的高额关税暂缓90天执行,为与其他国家领导人达成贸易协议争取时间。

  纽约梅隆银行追踪的数据显示,4月11日当外资加速撤离美债时,10年期美债收益率曾一度逼近4.5%。尽管市场对中美达成贸易协议的预期推动美债价格周二有所反弹,但10年期美债收益率全天也仅回落了不到2个基点至4.393%。

  值得一提的是,周二最新进行的2年期美债标售,也显示出海外投资者需求低迷。当天美国财政部标售了690亿美元的两年期国债,这是本周美国财政部1830亿美元总国债发行量的一部分。

  最终,两年期美债标售的得标利率高达3.795%,比预发行利率3.789%高出0.6个基点,这是自去年10月以来最大的尾部利差。表明投资者要求获得更高的补偿以消化此次售债。其中尤其值得注意的是,通常代表外国央行等机构的间接竞标者此次获配所占比例仅为56.2%,这是自2023年3月硅谷银行危机最严重时期以来的最低值。

  知名财经博客网站ZeroHedge表示,虽然间接竞标者需求在两周前很强劲,但这一次却崩溃了,如果比例再下降10-20%,美联储可能别无选择,只能重启量化宽松政策,以提供其明确应该做的事情:成为美国国债的“最后买家”。

  LPLFinancial首席固定收益策略师LawrenceGillum表示:“毫无疑问,外国投资者抛售美元资产的现象已经发生,并加剧了市场波动。再加上对美联储独立性的担忧,以及过早降息可能造成的非受迫性政策失误,长期国债收益率持续走高也就不足为奇了。”

  “我们看到欧洲投资者正在将部分投资汇回,”NorthlightAssetManagement首席投资官ChrisZaccarelli表示,“我们预计,只要关税政策和其他反全球化政策得到认真讨论,这种趋势就会持续下去。”

专题:第九届中国企业领袖读享盛典

  2025第九届中国企业领袖读享盛典于4月22-23日在北京举办。华润啤酒副总裁,贵州金沙酒业董事长范世凯出席并致辞。

  范世凯指出,在这个信息过载的时代,企业家需要的不仅仅是知识的增量,更是认知的提升。总裁读书会构建的共享认知生态,让商业思变和心智生产力同频共振,金沙酒业践行的上游战略,让品质坚守与时代脉搏深度交融,这二者看似路径不同,却都在完成对商业本质的溯源和重构。

  他表示,中国人的精神世界里,好书与美酒从来都是相映成辉的知己。而摘要酒正是金沙酒业对书酒文化的当代诠释。金沙酒业将以上游战略为指引,在书酒共生的长河中守护文化的根脉,让传统工艺与现代精神相拥,让地理基因与人文情怀共振,让每一滴酒都成为传递东方智慧的媒介。

  4月18日深夜,重药控股连收重庆证监局行政监管措施与深交所监管函,直指其2023年年报存在四类财务确认违规:未实质取得货权却确认收入、无商业实质交易入账、期后大额异常退货、收入确认时点与会计政策不符。值得关注的是,此次暴雷恰逢公司实控权由重庆国资委转至国务院国资委不足百日,业内猜测这或是新任控股方主动“挤水分”的结果。

  千亿联合体的“阿喀琉斯之踵”

  2023年初,通用技术集团入主重药控股,将其与中国医药合并打造出年营收超千亿的流通巨头。但规模神话难掩经营隐忧:2022-2024年净利润三连降,2024年预告净利腰斩,应收账款周转天数高达150天,远超同行均值。数据显示,其2023年801亿元营收仅转化6.55亿元净利,净利率不足0.8%,而同期国药控股净利率为2.3%。

  重药控股73%网点分布在川渝云贵地区,这些区域公立医院平均回款周期长达9-12个月,叠加集采压价与账期延长,形成“规模越大、资金链越紧”的恶性循环。更严峻的是,其与中国医药的协同效应未能显现——两家企业应收账款周转天数均在150天高位徘徊,合并后资金效率不升反降。

  市值管理考核下的业绩迷途

  此次财务造假风波,恰逢国资委将市值管理纳入央企考核的关键节点。2023年报显示,重药控股管理层股权激励行权条件要求净利润年复合增长率不低于10%,而实际业绩已连续三年负增长。

  这种现象并非孤例。2023年白云山第四季度突然计提3亿元亏损,被指是为新任管理层卸下历史包袱;九州通2022年也曾因提前确认收入被问询。这些案例折射出流通企业在规模扩张与质量提升间的集体迷失——商务部数据显示,TOP5企业已占据医药流通市场52%份额,但行业平均净利率从2018年的1.8%下滑至2023年的1.2%。

  此刻摆在重药控股面前的,不仅是财务洗澡的阵痛,更是如何将千亿规模转化为真实价值的终极命题。当潮水退去,唯有真正穿上“效率救生衣”的企业,才能穿越行业周期。

  本文结合AI工具生成

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