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  期权交易员两周来首次转而押注人民币在未来一个月内将小幅上涨。

  1个月期美元/离岸人民币风险逆转指标周四自4月2日以来首次进入负值区域,位于-0.05%,表明看跌期权占上风。

  该指标4月9日一度触及1.18%。

  交易员当前为押注美元/离岸人民币走低的看跌期权支付的价格高于看涨期权的价格。

  过去几周的情况恰恰相反,当时看涨期权相对于看跌期权的溢价持续扩大。

  美元/离岸人民币现汇在4月8日一度升至纪录高位7.4290,随后回落。

  美国法官裁定谷歌非法垄断广告技术,这为美国检察官寻求与谷歌分手埋下了伏笔。以下是此案涉及的内容以及谷歌今后将面临的问题。

  这是怎么回事?

  最重要的是这与什么无关:这与谷歌的搜索无关,尽管还有另一起关于搜索的反垄断案。司法部的广告技术案围绕着谷歌网络展开,谷歌网络是谷歌的一个部门,负责管理广告商购买数字广告空间的拍卖式系统。广告技术部门选择以何种成本在何种位置投放广告。

  联邦检察官称,谷歌对广告技术的控制权使其能够非法抵制竞争,从而损害了新闻机构等网络出版商的利益。法官对此表示同意。谷歌的论点是,它以卓越的技术战胜了竞争对手。

  在Alphabet2024年3500.2亿美元的营收中,广告业务约占75%。谷歌网络业务仅占收入的8.7%。

  接下来会发生什么?

  裁定存在非法垄断的法官现在将听取有关如何处理的辩论。司法部一直在寻求至少剥离谷歌网络部门的平台--谷歌广告管理器。根据Wedbush对法庭文件的研究和分析,广告管理器在2020年占总收入的4.1%,占营业利润的1.5%。

  法庭文件中更近期的数字被删节。

  这对谷歌有多大影响?

  康奈尔大学法学院教授埃里克·霍文坎普(ErikHovenkamp)在此案早些时候曾预测,如果败诉,谷歌可能不得不剥离部分而非全部显示广告业务,净收入下降幅度将低于10%。

  谷歌甚至对部分广告技术剥离持开放态度。9月18日有报道称,谷歌自己提出出售其广告交易平台(NewsStory),该平台是谷歌广告管理器的一部分,以安抚欧洲反垄断监管机构。消息人士称,出版商拒绝了这一提议。

  这会产生连锁反应吗?

  休斯顿大学法学教授尼古拉斯·古根伯格(NikolasGuggenberger)说,这一裁决最严重的影响可能是该公司如何管理法院下令的补救措施对其广告技术套件其他部分的连锁反应。从理论上讲,如果司法部胜诉,广告商和出版商将更容易更换广告技术平台。

  此外,在政治意愿方面也有先例可循:拜登政府和特朗普政府迄今为止都对此案表示支持,这表明在起诉大科技公司方面,政治阵营双方的合作几乎达到了独一无二的水平。

  分析人士说,另一起涉及谷歌搜索技术的反垄断案仍在继续,但与谷歌失去搜索技术的影响相比,这只是皮外伤。下周,华盛顿的一名法官将对搜索技术进行审判。

  这就是结局吗?

  不,谷歌已经表示将上诉。联邦法官接下来必须决定对非法垄断的补救措施。除非达成和解协议,否则还需要一段时间,甚至几年才能结束。

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