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再深点灬舒服灬太大了添小书-揭秘背后隐秘交易与利益链条》
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◎记者王彭

近来,公募基金一季报陆续披露。从已披露的QDII基金最新持仓来看,有基金经理大幅减仓美股,转而提升A股和港股的仓位。多位业内人士表示,考虑到当前不确定因素较多,全球资金对美股持偏谨慎态度。与此同时,中国科技领域的新突破使得中国资产在全球范围具有显著吸引力,尽管部分个股近期出现调整,但中国资产重估的逻辑依然没有改变。

减持美股增持中国股票

最新披露的基金一季报显示,多只QDII在减持美股的同时,显著提升了中国股票的仓位。

融通核心价值混合(QDII)最新披露的基金一季报显示,截至今年一季度末,该基金美股仓位为24.22%,较去年四季度末的52.38%大幅降低近30个百分点;基金港股仓位为54.94%,较去年四季度末的20.48%提升逾30个百分点。

融通核心价值混合基金经理何博、程越楷表示,年初判断港股科技股相对于美股科技股有明显的估值性价比优势,因此降低了美股仓位,将更多的股票仓位配置在估值性价比更突出的港股科技股上。基于对中国及美国科技资产的长期看好,组合将持续聚焦于中美科技股。短期而言,从性价比角度考虑,产品持仓偏向港股,未来将在中美科技资产中进行适度的轮动交易。

广发全球科技三个月定开混合一季报显示,截至今年一季度末,基金美股仓位为46.4%,较去年四季度末的52.93%降低了6.53个百分点;A股和港股仓位合计为35.95%,较去年四季度末的25.88%提升了10个百分点。

“今年一季度,我们继续对美国半导体等科技行业的仓位进行较大幅度的减持,增加了对中国互联网等中国科技行业的配置。”基金经理李耀柱称。

截至今年一季度末,交银环球精选混合的美股仓位为29.04%,较去年四季度末的40.87%大幅降低11.83个百分点;港股仓位为41.98%,较去年四季度末的33.99%提升7.99个百分点。此外,万家全球成长一年持有期混合的美股仓位为22.13%,较去年四季度末的29.99%降低了7.86个百分点;A股和港股仓位合计为71.17%,较去年四季度末的63.72%提高了7.45个百分点。

不确定因素扰动全球市场

在最新披露的基金一季报中,多位QDII基金经理均提到了美国“对等关税”政策对于全球经济和资本市场的影响。在他们看来,多重不确定因素扰动下,全球市场将持续震荡。

回顾今年以来美股表现,银华海外数字经济量化选股混合发起式基金经理马君表示,关税和财政政策路径的不明确,导致市场对经济韧性的定价出现阶段性失衡,风险溢价抬升引发科技成长板块估值收缩。同时,在宏观环境不确定的情况下,企业端对盈利前景的保守化倾向进一步强化了市场的防御性定价逻辑。上述因素的共同作用,导致一季度美股回调。

广发中证海外中国互联网30基金经理夏浩洋认为,美国关税政策的反复,也在不断影响着市场对于资产定价的判断。可以说,其政策的不确定性已成为当前市场不稳定因素的主要来源。

“当下,美国关税政策继续增加了市场的不确定,进一步提升了美国经济和美元体系的风险。因此,美股、日股、越南等市场的回撤幅度很大,未来下跌的风险依然没有充分释放。”创金合信全球芯片产业股票发起基金经理刘扬称。

鹏华道琼斯工业平均ETF基金经理李悦、罗英宇认为,展望2025年二季度,美股的交易主线将聚焦美国政府的关税政策及其对美国及全球贸易、经济和通胀的冲击。

中国资产重估逻辑依然存在

受美国关税政策冲击,此前走势强劲的多只中国科技股近期大幅回落。不过,在业内人士看来,多重因素支撑下,中国资产重估的逻辑依然存在。

FXTM富拓集团特约分析师黄俊表示,近期中国科技板块的调整主要是受美股科技股下跌的影响。从长期来看,海外资本仍然希望寻求到新的投资热点。如果中国芯片、人工智能等领域能出现新的重大技术突破,增强资本对中国科技的信心,年初由DeepSeek引发的中国科技股重估趋势仍有望延续。

“今年一季度,港股市场表现较好,原因在于国产大模型的进步引发了市场对中国科技股和美国科技股的估值重构,港股互联网公司则是最直接享受这一过程的公司。对于国内互联网巨头来说,大模型赋予他们新的业绩增长点,长期来看仍然有较大的增长空间。”创金合信港股互联网3个月持有期混合基金经理郑剑、孙悦称。

李耀柱认为,DeepSeek人工智能系列模型的推出,意味着人工智能行业价值链将重塑,规模定律也由预训练转到后训练,大幅降低了训练和推理成本,这让中国的互联网行业迎来较大的重估。

“我们认为,中国互联网行业有充足的工程师人才,同时在数据和用户上有深厚的积累,叠加中国丰富的应用场景,互联网大厂在人工智能发展中会有较大的优势,这个行业迎来新的资本开支周期,从而带动相关公司盈利提升,未来我们的组合在这一行业的配置比例也会逐步提升。”李耀柱称。

夏浩洋表示,对于中国科技股的重估已成为市场热议的话题。就当前而言,AI在大模型和软件应用端都有广阔发展空间。未来待AIAgent发展取得突破,大模型和应用两端的爆发或如期而至,互联网作为在AI大模型和应用端都占据优势的板块或将充分受益。投资者可以关注深度受益于AI发展的中概互联板块的长期投资机会。

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