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温南栀姜岑川:探索欲望的边界与激情的真实
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温南栀姜岑川:探索欲望的边界与激情的真实

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  法国酒业巨头保乐力加(PernodRicard)周四公布第三财季销售额下降3%,低于预期,原因是关税的不确定性给已经陷入困境的烈酒行业带来了冲击。

  分析师此前预计,在截至3月底的三个月里,该公司的有机净销售额将下降2%。

  保乐力加的销售受到美国批发商在预期关税之前下单的提振。但这被其他问题抵消了,包括印度的生产中断、关税对中国干邑销售的影响,以及由于干邑在中国的免税销售暂停,其旅游零售部门的销售额下降了31%。

  保乐乐首席执行官亚历山大·力加表示,如果不是印度装瓶厂的技术问题和复活节时间过晚——这两个因素都不会影响下一季度的业绩——保乐乐的业绩将符合预期。

  不过,分析师们表示,复活节时间等问题已得到很好的预示,而汇率变动可能影响保乐力加的盈利。

  杰富瑞(Jefferies)分析师爱德华·芒迪(EdwardMundy)表示,保乐力加目前需要在第四季度实现稳健的销售增长,才能达到分析师对年销售额的平均预期。

  与此同时,美国总统特朗普的关税政策使整个烈酒行业陷入了不确定性。在对高价酒的需求已经受到高利率和通胀压力的情况下,关税威胁到消费者信心。

  力加说,保乐力加认为美国的潜在需求没有变化,但不清楚这种情况是否会发生变化。

  “在当今世界,很难预测,”他说。

  保乐力加乐维持全年销售额个位数低降幅的预期不变,但警告称环境仍不稳定。

  该公司此前已经下调了2025年以及2027-2029年的增长预测。该公司在2月份表示,关税的年度影响约为2亿欧元(2.272亿美元)。

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