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热点栏目自选股数据中心行情中心资金流向模拟交易客户端

  来源:南方都市报

  近日,天佑德酒(002646.SZ)披露年报,2024年公司净利润“腰斩”,同时公司扣非后净利润、经营现金流净额等核心财务数据均同比下滑超50%。

  公司在年报中表示:2024年,白酒行业整体仍处于调整期。当前行业进入结构调整和增速换挡的新阶段,价格倒挂成为行业痛点,去库存是众多企业的关键任务。

  去年净利润“腰斩”,产能利用率不足50%

  财务数据显示,天佑德酒2024年营收为12.55亿元,同比增长3.69%;同期归属于上市公司股东的净利润为4213.53万元,同比下降52.96%,扣非后净利润为3816.86万元,同比下滑超55%;基本每股收益0.0882元,同比下滑超50%;截至2024年末,公司经营现金流净额为1866.58万元,同比大跌82.03%。

  对于净利润及经营现金流净额下跌较大的原因,天佑德酒表示:受公司长期资产摊销额较大的影响——摊销额8941.43万元;2024年在制品原酒增加,存货期末较期初增加1412.64万元;报告期内经营性应交税金、其他应付款、应付账款等期末较期初增加2857.91万元。

  业绩下滑背后,天佑德酒的酒制造板块销售量、生产量以及库存量等皆处于下滑态势,对应数值分别为1.47万吨、1.40万吨、5191吨,分别同比下滑3.24%、13.65%以及11.85%。

  值得注意的是,天佑德酒产能利用率不足50%。从公司披露的产能情况来看,天佑德酒成品酒涉及产能3万吨,2024年实际产量1.36万吨,产能利用率仅45.33%;西藏阿拉嘉宝产能利用率更低,产能5000吨,2024年产量仅为325吨,产能利用率仅6.5%。

  公开资料显示,天佑德酒旗下的产品主要为青稞白酒,旗下品牌包括天佑德、互助、八大作坊、世义德、永庆和等,该系列青稞白酒产品2024年营收占比超过98%;同时,公司还有威士忌(Sulongghu、Nara、Joolon)、马克斯威(Maxville)葡萄酒等。

  天佑德:次高端白酒消费待恢复,酒企普遍“控量挺价”

  天佑德酒在年报中强调,行业竞争进一步加剧,白酒销售有所承压,特别是次高端产品消费需求仍待恢复,客户信心仍处于修复阶段。

  次高端消费待恢复、价格倒挂、库存高企等困境下,何解?天佑德酒表示:酒企普遍采取“控量挺价”策略,积极协助经销商提升动销,为消化渠道库存及后续销售提供支撑。

  南都湾财社记者注意到,今年以来,习酒·窖藏1988、汾酒青花20、老白汾酒10、第三代珍十五、第八代五粮液、42度500ml国缘四开及对开、泸州老窖老头曲、洋河海之蓝及天之蓝等白酒品牌纷纷传出暂停供货或严格配额管控的消息。

  “控量挺价”背后的关键,在于“库存”二字。据了解,近期不少白酒经销商因库存压力扩大,导致资金周转紧张,便开启了“去库存”模式,而激进的“去库存”方式难免会压低白酒产品的市场终端价,从而使得酒企好不容易建立起来的价格体系被扰乱,进一步影响白酒品牌力。

  酒企已意识到上述“库存压顶”在白酒调整周期下的“杀伤力”,于是频频启动“控量挺价”策略,这一战略的关键不仅是维护价格体系,还有“自上而下”地完成一场又一场的渠道库存去化。

  南都·湾财社记者张海霞

  (文章来源:南方都市报)

  高盛策略师表示,日元是短期对冲澳元,长期对冲美元风险的好货币。

  策略师KarenReichgottFishman和StuartJenkins在周四的一份报告中写道,美元/日元在未来12个月应会跌至135,风险倾向于“更早”达到这一水平或更低。

  他们表示,日元/美元成为一种有效的对冲工具,因为美元将解除近年来高估的局面,很有可能会转为低估;“如果美国像我们目前预期的那样能避免经济衰退,或许堪堪避过”,那么它的表现应该会优于其他日元交叉汇率。

  高盛称,战术性做空澳元/日元,因股市风险偏向下行,且美元抛售的速度使得该货币对面临战术性波动的风险。

  在市场波动中寻找确定性,是每位投资者的期望。华商基金权益投资部基金经理王毅文用超12年的投研积淀给出了答案:以产业演进的视角挑选方向,以长期持有的心态精选个股,用产业趋势中的确定性机会应对市场的不确定性。

  以产业视角穿越周期代表作近三年业绩同类前十

  华商基金王毅文于2013年加入华商基金,从研究员做起,历任机械、家电、中小盘研究员,后担任工业、消费组组长,逐渐成长为实力派权益基金经理。超12年的投研历练(其中7.3年证券研究经历,4.8年证券投资经历),使得他形成了以中观产业研究为核心的价值成长策略,即以产业演进的视角挑选方向,以长期持有的心态精选个股。

  王毅文

  华商策略精选灵活配置混合基金经理

  王毅文认为,产业趋势或是催生优质个股的重要因素,从中观产业出发或能有效兼顾投研的效率和确定性。他表示,会从这些产业中筛选出优质的“头部”公司,在合理的价格区间买入并长期持有,获取公司成长的价值。同时,他也非常注重回撤控制,通过动态调整行业权重、市场不确定时分散持股等方式来实现。

  中长期的投资视野、多行业的研究经历,使得王毅文善于跨行业横向寻找优质可靠的投资机会。华商策略精选灵活配置混合基金的中长期表现证明了其策略的有效性和投资实力。

  银河证券数据显示,截至2025年一季度末,华商策略精选灵活配置混合基金近3年、5年业绩表现亮眼,不仅远超同期业绩比较基准和沪深300指数收益率,业绩排名也均位列同类基金前1/4。其中,该基金近3年净值增长率7.55%,位列同类基金前十(10/141);近5年净值增长率54.53%,大幅超越同期业绩比较基准39.16个百分点,超越沪深300指数49.07个百分点,在126只同类基金中排名第29位。

  华商策略精选灵活配置混合基金中长期业绩表现

  数据说明:基金业绩及业绩比较基准数据来自基金定期报告;市场指数数据来自万得信息;排名数据来自银河证券2025.04.02公布,基金分类为偏股型基金(股票上限80%)(A类)。

  2025年前瞻布局慢牛格局下的硬科技主线机遇

  展望2025年,王毅文认为,资本市场面临的宏观内外环境依然复杂,但在政策不断加力及产业持续发展等因素推动下,预计市场将呈现震荡向上的慢牛格局。他对2025年的整体市场表现持乐观态度,他认为中国经济整体正处于温和复苏的趋势中,传统产业筑底回升、新兴产业蓬勃发展,预计盈利增长和风险偏好都将朝着正面的方向演进,同时指数和个股估值仍处于历史区间的较低位置。

  面对复杂的内外环境,王毅文表示,将着眼中长期,挑选主赛道上具有明确产业趋势的方向,如半导体、人工智能、汽车智能化、上游资源、电网投资、内需消费、机器人等。王毅文进一步表示,近年来我国一系列硬科技快速发展,相关产业化应用的临界点越来越近,以人工智能为代表的硬科技仍将是全年主线之一。因此他将重点关注以下几大方向:国产算力产业链,包括算力芯片、半导体设备、数据中心液冷等;人形机器人快速迭代及人工智能与医疗、传媒传统产业的结合带来的新机会;国防军工中的低空经济、卫星互联网、新型武器的列装等领域;以及受益于人工智能、新型能源产业发展需求爆发的铜、铝等上游资源领域。

  在瞬息万变的市场中,想要以市场的确定性机会应对市场的不确定性风险,需要有专业人士掌舵,从产业趋势中挖掘机会。华商基金的投研老将王毅文,值得投资者关注。

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