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双性将军粗壮H灌满怀孕|如何引导其健康发展?
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24年业绩稳健增长,持股计划彰显发展信心

报告摘要

■ 事件:公司发布2024年年报以及2025年一季报。公司2024实现收入23.22亿元,同比增加18.41%;归母净利润6.14亿元,同比增加13.25%;扣非归母净利润5.82亿元,同比增加15.79%。单季度来看, 24Q4公司收入6.24亿元,同比增加23.11%;归母净利润1.2亿元,同比增加44.95%;扣非归母净利润1.09亿元,同比增加43.86%。25Q1实现收入5.1亿元,同比增加12.92%;归母净利润1.71亿元,同比增加35%;扣非归母净利润1.58亿元,同比增加25.13%。盈利能力方面,24年毛利率为48.8%,同比下降3.43pcts,净利率为26.69%,同比下降1.39pcts。

■ 电力设备板块持续增长。分业务来看,2024年公司电力设备业务实现营业收入18.11亿元,同比增长11.47%,公司业务结构向高端产品延伸,其中,特高压产品通过换流变出厂实验,高技术壁垒为持续开拓国内外高端电力装备市场提供核心支撑;售后服务市场实现营业收入1.32亿元,同比增长24%;数控设备业务保持稳定,实现营业收入1.75亿元。公司未来将加大数控设备激光设备的协同,提升其海外影响力和市场份额。

■ 加速海外市场布局。2024年公司国际化布局和售后服务延伸,直接、间接出口实现营业收入4.85亿元,同比增长41%,总收入占比26.7%。公司计划在东南亚地区建立涵盖产品设计、生产制造、销售服务及运维管理的完整产业链,并力争在短期内实现业务的显著突破。目前,印尼工厂已初步完工,新加坡已步入正轨,并积极完善本地化团队,以增强东南亚市场的销售和服务能力。

■ 

加速产能优化,提升两大生产基地的协同效应。

上海基地:将在维持现有12000台产能的基础上,主要承担新产品研发与海外市场开拓的任务。遵义基地:承担大规模生产任务,目前遵义基地的产能产线已经初步完成布局,形成铸钢、铸铝、机械加工等全产业链的布局,达成年产8000台的生产能力。

■ 

发布员工持股计划,业绩高增长目标彰显信心。本次员工持股计划涉及授予激励对象合计不超过1500万股,约占当前公司股本总额的1.67%,首次授予部分的参加对象中公司董事、监事、高级管理人员为9人,2025-2027年年度累计净利润的考核指标为24.54亿元,业绩高增长目标展示了公司对其发展战略的坚定信心。

■投资建议:公司是国内变压器分接开关龙头,竞争格局稳定,出海进程全面加速,我们预计公司25-27年营收为26.12、29.70、35.53亿元,营收增速分别为12.5%、13.7%、12.9%;归母净利润为7.10、8.28、9.55亿元,归母净利润增速分别为15.6%、16.5%、15.4%。对应4月18日收盘价,公司25-27年PE分为17X、15X、13X。维持“推荐”评级。

■ 风险提示:汇率波动风险;海外市场拓展不及预期。

研究报告信息

证券研究报告:华明装备(002270.SZ)2024年年报及2025年一季报点评:24年业绩稳健增长,持股计划彰显发展信心

对外发布时间:2025年4月21日

报告撰写:

邓永康SAC编号S0100521100006

林誉韬SAC编号S0100524070001

王一如SAC编号S0100523050004

朱碧野SAC编号S0100522120001

李佳SAC编号S0100523120002

许浚哲SAC编号S0100123020010

黎静SAC编号S0100123030035 

专题:京东美团“战火”升级京东喊话:对兼职骑手永不强迫“二选一”

  来源:蒉莺春Kate

  今天一大早就看到各种群里散的黑板报檄文:字里行间愤怒至极,颇有不共戴天为民除害之意。当时还有个朋友以为是假的,说要反复求证切不要轻信。我仔细读完,大吃一惊,当时忙着开会,写了几句在朋友圈,那晚上得空了就继续来说说吧。

  首先,我还是那句话,如果良性竞争可以推动行业进步,让多方受益,那一定是好事。

  其次,这封信里的逻辑我们来分析一下。这里主要攻击的是美团逼迫骑手“二选一”。首先这个“二选一”会造成骑手收入下降,给骑手带来损失;其次这个“二选一”也给京东因为单量暴增但没人接单造成了用户体验问题,因此望美团好自为之,回头是岸。

  我谈两个问题:1.共享用工平台“二选一”是否现实,有没有这个动力和能力?2.下雨天不容易打到车不是因为车少了?

  我对于打架不感兴趣,我感兴趣的是逻辑。美团和京东都对共享经济做出了很大的贡献,美团有800万骑手(大部分是兼职),京东有100万(达达的众包占了很大部分)。共享经济模式下,事实上平台对于众包骑手的约束很弱,就像骑手可以很短时间拿着头盔和制服在一个平台上岗(比如京东这几天迅速找了很多骑手),他们也可以随时用脚投票去另一个平台开工。当然更多的情况是一个骑手同时在几个平台干活,这样可以让他们更快地把一天期望的工资挣到。而在同一个平台里,事实上众包骑手和驻店骑手都能无缝切换,因为周末有时候单量大,钱多人少,驻店的也愿意临时转众包多挣点。那么平台有没有能力去“二选一”呢?通常情况下是没有的,因为骑手都是看着订单走,哪里有钱用脚投票。在这样的情况下,京东撒钱,骑手就算被美团要挟说你要去了东东那里就不要回团团了,骑手根本不会理,骑手会用脚投票。

  首先这些众包骑手的工作本来就不是有固定的时间和地点,以及工作年限契约的。这种不固定性是共享经济灵活用工模式所特有的:之所以叫做“灵活”用工,本质就是双方都不要限制那么多,你有空了干一点,没空了那平台和你下次见。也正是这种灵活用工模式带来了很多益处,比如让很多女性在照顾孩子之余可以灵活上班的,都定死了时间有很多人就无法灵活就业了。

  其次我们面临失业率的问题,所以不是没有劳动力。众包配送的门槛没有这么高,走了旧的会有新的,“二选一”意义不大。

  第二个问题是下雨天打不到车是不是因为车少了?类比也就是说订单多的时候,大家都等着吃京东外卖的时候是不是因为没有配送员导致的?下雨天打不到车这件事,大家的直觉就是雨天车少,需求大于供给,因此造成这个局面。关于这个问题美国有个著名的劳动经济学家Farber对纽约的出租车司机做了研究,发现事实上下雨天打不到车并不是因为出租车少了,而是因为司机下雨天接单容易,计划一天要挣到的钱很快就挣到了,挣到了就提早回家了。这个每天计划挣到的钱在经济学里被叫做“参照点”,过了这个点,继续工作给人带来的幸福指数就远远小于回家老婆孩子热炕头的幸福度。

  所以也许,京东平台的骑手小哥人手不够不是因为”二选一“,而是在如此激励的情况下,他们早早挣到了一天的期望值,那再要回去干,得要更高的激励才行呢。

  “二选一”是个特别古早的概念。当年平台锁后台的动作在今天的竞争格局下其实毫无意义。如果美团真的大规模开始对骑手“二选一”,京东也不用写檄文了,因为那是一条通往奴役之路,早晚会自生自灭。

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