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事件

近期,公司发布2024年年度报告以及2025年一季度业绩快报公告。2024年公司实现营业收入61.7亿元,同比+9.67%;实现归母净利润11.3亿元,同比+11.1%。2025年一季度,公司预计实现营业收入15.6亿元,同比+17.5%;预计实现归母净利润3.7亿元,同比+31.1%。

点评

▍抽水蓄能即将进入投产期,参与现货市场初见成效

截至2024年年末,公司抽水蓄能投产装机总规模1028万千瓦,占全国装机容量的17.5%。在建抽水蓄能电站9座,总装机容量1080万千瓦,包括广东的肇庆浪江抽水蓄能电站(120万千瓦)、惠州中洞抽水蓄能电站(120万千瓦)、梅州抽水蓄能电站二期工程(120万千瓦)、茂名电白抽水蓄能电站(120万千瓦),广西的南宁抽水蓄能电站(120万千瓦)、桂林灌阳抽水蓄能电站(120万千瓦)、钦州灵山抽水蓄能电站(120万千瓦)、贵港港北抽水蓄能电站(120万千瓦)、玉林福绵抽水蓄能电站(120万千瓦)。2025年南宁以及梅州抽蓄电站二期项目将全面建成,实现公司“十四五”抽水蓄能投产480万千瓦的目标;“十五五”期间,公司将力争新增投产约1000万千瓦。

2024年7月,广东省能源局、国家能源局南方监管局印发《关于印发广东省抽水蓄能参与电力市场交易实施方案的通知》(粤能电力〔2024〕27号),提出建立健全抽水蓄能参与电力市场交易机制,以市场方式形成电量电价。2024年9月30日,公司发布公告,旗下梅蓄一期电站已于2024年10月起进入电力现货市场交易。我们认为,随着电力现货市场的逐步完善,公司有望通过参与现货市场增厚抽蓄电站的电量电费利润。

▍调峰水电发电量提升带动利润增长,新型储能稳步发展

2024年全年,公司调峰水电厂来水同比增加,发电量同比提升57%至84.8亿千瓦时,带动营业收入同比增加55.5%;新型储能方面,截至 2024年末,公司新型储能电站累计装机规模 65.42万千瓦/129.83万千瓦时(含调试)。2024年年内新建成电化学储能电站3座并进行调试,分别为云南文山丘北储能项目(200MW/400MWh)、海南临高储能项目(20MW/40MWh)、湖南中南水泥厂配储项目(5.1MW/14.7MWh);完成深圳潭头储能电站(5.25MW/11.58Mwh)收购。

▍盈利预测与估值

由于抽蓄电站投产的时间节奏原因,略下调盈利预期,预计2025-2027年公司可实现归母净利润11.56/14.4/15.9亿元(25/26年前值16.5/19.5亿元),对应PE26.4/21.1/19.2x,维持“买入”评级。

▍风险提示

政策推进实施不及预期、来水不及预期、用电需求下降、辅助服务市场发展不及预期等风险、业绩快报仅为初步核算,具体以公司正式季报为准

文中报告节选自天风证券研究所已公开发布研究报告,具体报告内容及相关风险提示等详见完整版报告。

证券研究报告:《南网储能:来水转好带动调峰水电利润提升,抽蓄即将进入投产期》

对外发布时间:2025年4月17日

报告发布机构:天风证券股份有限公司(已获中国证监会许可的证券投资咨询业务资格)

本报告分析师:

郭丽丽执业证书编号:S1110520030001

赵阳 执业证书编号:S1110524070005

(转自:郭丽丽的研究札记)

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