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今年是建党100周年吗,在光影交错中,感受人性的复杂与情感的纠葛
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今年是建党100周年吗,在光影交错中,感受人性的复杂与情感的纠葛

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  ■ 苏向杲

  4月23日,中国人民银行党委委员、副行长陆磊在新闻发布会上介绍,人民币的跨境支付、投融资、储备等国际货币功能逐步增强,已成为全球第四大支付货币和第三大贸易投资货币。人民币国际货币功能的持续增强,是我国近年来统筹发展与安全、深化贸易投资便利化改革的积极成果。

  当前,我国经济正处于转型升级的关键阶段,同时面临外部不确定性增加的挑战,人民币国际货币功能的增强,有助于我国实现经济增长质量与速度的动态平衡。具体而言,人民币国际货币功能增强有四大积极意义。

  首先,促进贸易便利化,赋能稳外贸。

  一季度,货物和服务净出口拉动我国GDP(国内生产总值)增长2.1个百分点,对经济增长的贡献率为38.89%。人民币国际货币功能的增强有利于进一步释放净出口对经济的拉动作用:其一,跨境贸易采用人民币计价结算,能有效降低企业因外币汇率波动产生的汇兑损失,稳定外贸企业利润预期。其二,有助于扩大我国与“一带一路”共建国家及新兴市场的人民币贸易结算规模,降低对外币结算体系的依赖,推动出口市场多元化。其三,随着人民币国际货币功能的增强,我国在全球产业链中的议价能力有望相应提升,有利于高端装备等高附加值产品出口,优化贸易结构,为净出口增长提供长效支撑。

  其次,吸引外资流入,助力促投资。

  人民币国际货币功能的完善显著提升外资配置中国资产的便利性:一方面,境外投资者可直接使用人民币投资,避免了货币兑换产生的手续费和汇率波动风险,大幅提高投资效率。另一方面,人民币被更多国家纳入外汇储备体系,本质上是境外经济体对我国经济投下“信任票”,有利于增强海外投资者“增配中国”的信心。人民币国际货币功能的深化还将推动国际投资机构基于资产配置多元化需求,系统性提升中国资产的配置比例。这些效应不仅增强了资本市场的买方力量,更通过资本要素的优化配置助推实体经济发展。

  再次,提升金融体系稳健性,增强抗风险能力。

  人民币国际货币功能的强化从三个层面筑牢金融安全屏障:一是降低国内金融机构对外币的依赖度,有效缓解外部冲击带来的汇兑风险;二是吸引境外投资者增持人民币债券、股票等金融资产,通过市场参与者多元化提升金融市场的深度与韧性;三是助力构建自主可控的跨境支付体系,人民币跨境支付系统(CIPS)的不断完善,有利于我国降低对国际资金清算系统(SWIFT)的依赖。

  最后,促进金融体系深化改革,推动制度型开放。

  人民币国际货币功能的扩展,要求金融体系加速完善跨境资金流动的金融基础设施,构建与之匹配的宏观审慎管理框架,健全市场化风险定价机制,满足国际市场对人民币跨境支付、投融资、储备的需求。这种“以开放促改革”的机制,将推动我国金融市场向更高层次发展。

  需要指出的是,人民币国际货币功能的增强也可能伴随跨境资本流动波动性加大等挑战,国际风险也可能通过货币渠道传导至国内市场。但总体来看,我国在推进人民币国际货币功能增强的过程中始终坚持安全与发展并重,为境内外主体持有、使用人民币营造了稳健的政策环境。笔者相信,立足新发展格局,人民币国际货币功能的持续提升,必将为我国经济高质量发展注入更强动能。

专题:巴菲特2025年股东大会重磅来袭

  “股神”巴菲特已经控制了整个美国短期国债市场的近5%,超过了美联储的持仓。

  根据伯克希尔最新财务披露中公布的数据计算,截至2025年3月底,该公司已经积累了3008.7亿美元的美国国库券,而整个美国国库券市场的总规模为6.15万亿美元,这意味着伯克希尔控制了大约4.89%的份额,相当于市场上流通的每20美元国库券中,就有1美元属于该公司。

  这突显出在股票估值高企和全球经济持续不确定的情况下,巴菲特对安全性和流动性的关注。目前伯克希尔持有的美国国库券总额超过了美联储,后者拥有超过1950亿美元的类似证券。

  截至3月底,伯克希尔3340亿美元的现金储备中,超过90%投资于短期政府债券。其中144亿美元的国库券被归类为现金等价物,这些债券的剩余期限不足三个月,还有2864.7亿美元的国库券被列为短期投资。两者加在一起就是3008.7亿美元。

  今年4月,美国国债的平均收益率为4.359%,巴菲特似乎更看重稳定的回报,而不是风险较高的投资。这位亿万富翁投资者已经两年多没有进行重大收购了,并经常以高估值为理由。“一切都太贵了,”他在过去的采访中说。

  苹果等其他大公司也增加了对美国国债的敞口。苹果目前持有155亿美元的美国国债,这是其300亿美元现金及等价物的一部分,但规模远不及伯克希尔。

  当市场苦苦等待他的下一步动作时,巴菲特正安然坐收国库券的利息,静候良机,即他所谓的“肥球”(fatpitch),然后再将大量资金重新配置到风险资产中。

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