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门卫老头挺进校花的翘臀,孩子们的想法竟然如此天真,背后的故事让
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门卫老头挺进校花的翘臀,孩子们的想法竟然如此天真,背后的故事让

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  原标题:老龄化推动医保支付方式改革提速,下一步重点是什么|晋观医养

  医药服务供给侧规模扩大、需求推动下的医药费用快速增长、医保制度运行压力加大,凸显出医保支付方式改革的迫切性。

  我国65岁及以上的老年人口已达2.2亿,医疗需求的增加和医疗费用的攀升持续驱动我国医保支付方式改革进一步扩面、提质、增效。

  2025年是我国医保支付方式改革的关键之年。按照既定目标,到今年底,DRG/DIP支付方式将覆盖所有符合条件的开展住院服务的医疗机构,基本实现病种、医保基金全覆盖。

  近日,国家医保局医药服务管理司副司长徐娜在2025年医保支付方式改革蓝皮书发布会暨趋势交流会上表示,截至目前,全国393个统筹地区中实施按病组(DRG)付费191个、按病种分值(DIP)付费200个,天津与上海兼具两种付费模式,实现了统筹地区全覆盖、符合条件的医疗机构全覆盖、病种覆盖率达到95%、医保基金覆盖率达到80%。

  医保支付方式距离实现既定目标仅一步之遥。今年,国家医保局将采取统筹推进多元化支付体系建设、加快完善配套管理机制、着力提升数智化管理水平举措等措施,聚焦提质增效,持续推进医保支付方式改革走深走实。

  老龄化加剧与医疗费用上升

  时隔三年,“深化医保支付方式改革”再次被写入政府工作报告中,是今年医保改革的一个“重头戏”。

  医保支付方式改革的目标是建立管用高效的医保支付机制,构建以DRG/DIP付费为主,按床日付费、按人头付费、按项目付费等多种方式并存的复合式支付方式制度。其中,按病种付费是当前医保支付方式改革的主要任务,DRG/DIP付费方式作为我国目前主要推行的两类按病种付费方式,主要针对的是一般住院病例。

  2009年之前,我国基本医保基金的结算方式在多数地区采用按项目付费。随着基本医保全民覆盖和新一轮医改的启动,医保支付方式改革被列为新一轮医改的重点工作之一。2018年国家医保局成立后,医保支付方式改革驶入快车道。

  医保支付方式国家试点启动时,经济增速、财政增长进入放缓的新常态。与此相对应的是,基本医保筹资增长放缓。《中国医疗保障支付方式改革发展报告(2023~2024)》(下称“蓝皮书”)称,职工医保筹资与收入挂钩,近年来,部分地区为降低企业成本,调低了职工医保单位费率。居民医保缴费由个人和财政按比例分担,随着人均筹资额的增长,每年增速日渐趋缓。2018~2022年,基本医保基金收入增速由14.4%降至7.6%。

  2023年基本医保基金收入增速为8.3%。据国家医保局近日发布的《2024年医疗保障事业发展统计快报》,2024年,基本医疗保险基金(含生育保险)总收入为34809.95亿元,同比增速降至约3.9%。

  从医保基金的支出端看,老龄化、慢病化等带来人群对健康需求的不断增强,医保基金面临较大支付压力。国家统计局数据显示,2024年末,60岁及以上人口31031万人,占全国人口的22.0%,其中65岁及以上人口22023万人,占全国人口的15.6%。

  蓝皮书预测,基于2022年的人口结构保守估计,10年后,我国65岁及以上人口占比将超过19%。职工医保在职退休比有所下降,由2012年的3.00降至2022年的2.76;2023年降至2.71。

  与年轻人相比,老年人疾病风险更高。根据第五次和第六次国家卫生服务调查数据,25岁及以上人群两周患病率随着年龄增加而不断升高,65岁及以上人群两周患病率是全人群的1.8倍以上。从疾病负担来看,慢性病治疗费用占医疗总费用的比重超过70%。随着人口老龄化的加速,总体疾病负担将同样呈加速增长趋势。

  《中国卫生健康统计年鉴》显示,20年来,医疗资源增势明显。2002~2023年,总床位数由314万张增至1017万张,年均增长5.8%。每千人口床位数由2002年的2.5张增至2023年的7.2张,年均增长5.2%。

  2005~2021年,全国医药总费用规模持续攀升,由4662亿元增加至41772亿元,增加37110亿元,增长近8倍,年均增速达14.7%,快于同期GDP年均增速(12%);其中增量的约85%流向医院。随着全国医药总费用规模的扩大,年度增量不断攀升。2010年以前,年度增长额平均约1000亿元;之后年均增长额升至2000亿~3000亿元。

  医药服务供给侧规模扩大、需求推动下的医药费用快速增长、医保制度运行压力加大,凸显出医保支付方式改革的迫切性。

  支付方式改革下一步重点

  首都医科大学国家医疗保障研究院执行院长、蓝皮书主编应亚珍表示,当前医保支付方式改革三年行动计划收官,各地积累了改革实施经验,改革成效正在逐步显现。

  徐娜认为,医保支付方式改革实现了“医保患”三方初步共赢:基金运行平衡、使用效率提升;医疗机构获得更多医保结余,内部收入结构改善;患者就医经济负担减轻,住院自付费用稳中有降。

  与此同时,支付方式改革目前还有三大挑战:医疗费用增长与支付方式管理之间存在矛盾;整体改革质量仍有较大提升空间;改革多方协同合力发挥不充分。

  应亚珍分析称,对照支付方式改革目标,改革实施中还存在困难和问题,医疗医保相向而行还有差距,医保筹资、待遇保障和医药费用之间的“三角”不均衡,医疗服务供给侧处在运行变化期,监管难度加大。

  蓝皮书建议,要围绕改革目标,不断完善实施策略、方案,采取针对性措施和手段,如推进异地就医纳入按病组付费/按病种分值付费管理;制定基金监管规则,完善智能审核系统,进一步推进医共体下的多元复合支付方式,引导医疗机构更加注重人群健康,医保按健康绩效付费。

  国家医保局医保中心副主任隆学文表示,异地就医住院费用纳入按病种付费管理稳步推进。截至一季度末,除了6个省级统筹省份和11个不作为就医地的统筹地区以外,23个省份的235个统筹区开展了省内异地就医住院费用纳入按病种付费管理,177个统筹区已实际付费。

  作为DRG/DIP2.0版分组方案的五大配套机制之一,医保基金预付制度也在快速推进,2025年一季度预付总规模723亿,可有效破解医院垫资难题,助力公立医院轻装上阵。

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