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热点栏目自选股数据中心行情中心资金流向模拟交易客户端

  来源:期货日报

  早上好,先关注下海外市场。

  21日晚间,美股再遭重挫,三大指数低开低走,道指跌2.17%,纳指跌2.68%,标普500指数跌2.27%。

  科技股全线大跌,特斯拉大跌超6%,英伟达跌超5%,亚马逊、Meta、博通跌超3%,苹果、微软、谷歌跌超2%。

  与此同时,美元也遭到猛烈抛售,美元指数一度跌破98关口,为2022年3月以来首次。非美货币全线大涨,美元兑日元跌0.93%,逼近140关口;欧元兑美元上涨0.92%,至1.1499;英镑兑美元上涨0.74%,至1.3393。美元兑离岸人民币跌0.11%,报7.2954。

  另外,美国国债亦短线走低,美国30年期国债收益率一度触及4.989%,10年期国债收益率一度突破4.4%。

  华尔街分析人士表示,美股、美元、美债遭遇“三杀”的主要原因是,特朗普上周考虑撤换美联储主席,使美联储的独立性受到质疑,投资者对美国经济的信心再次受到打击。

  消息面上,特朗普再催美联储降息,并表示美国实际上已不存在通胀。不过,最新的数据显示,美联储偏好的通胀指标仍高于其设定的目标水平。

  据央视新闻消息,当地时间4月21日,美国总统特朗普在其社交媒体平台“真实社交”上发文,再次敦促美国联邦储备委员会作出降息决定。

  特朗普在帖文中宣称:“美国实际上已不存在通胀,能源、食品及其他大多数商品价格下行趋势如此显著,几乎不可能引发通胀。但如果‘太迟先生’(指美联储主席鲍威尔)不立即降息,美国经济将面临放缓风险。”

  特朗普近来频繁施压鲍威尔,要求美联储立即降息,并称鲍威尔的行动总是“又迟又错”,“越早走人越好”。

  鲍威尔当地时间4月16日在芝加哥经济俱乐部发表讲话时说,“美国政府已宣布的关税上调幅度远超预期水平,这给美国经济带来的影响,包括推高通胀和抑制增长同样可能超出预期,令美联储货币政策制定面临更棘手局面。”他表示,“美联储在决定是否调整利率前,将继续观察加征关税及其他经济政策的实际影响。”

  特朗普在其第一任期就频繁公开批评美联储及鲍威尔,经常敦促美联储降息。开启第二任期以来,特朗普也多次对鲍威尔施压,要求其降息。鲍威尔则在多个场合强调,美联储将保持政策独立性,政策调整需基于经济数据而非政治干预。

  EvercoreISI副总裁克里希纳·古哈表示,特朗普若试图解雇鲍威尔,可能会引发美国股市的剧烈抛售。他称:“如果你开始质疑美联储的独立性,那就等于是在提高美联储降息的门槛。如果你真的尝试解雇美联储主席,我认为市场将出现严重反应,收益率会上升,美元会走弱,股市会大幅下跌。我无法相信政府真正想要实现这样的结果。”

  Nationwide首席市场策略师马克·哈克特表示,尽管特朗普政府在降低利率方面的意图“非常明确”,但“最终结果无法预测”。哈克特补充道,目前的施压与2018年和2019年的言论类似,不过“就像关税一样,这更可能是在公开场合进行的谈判,意图通过口头施压来影响决策,因为若真的解雇(鲍威尔),无疑将导致市场动荡”。

  截至收盘,截至收盘,道指跌2.48%,纳指跌2.55%,标普500指数跌2.36%。美元暴跌至去年10月份以来的低点,资金加速流向日元、黄金等避险资产。

  WTI原油期货收跌2.47%,报63.08美元/桶。布伦特原油期货收跌2.50%,报66.26美元/桶。

  黄金再创新高

  美元走软、特朗普对美联储的批评以及持续的贸易战担忧,共同推动了市场避险需求高涨。

  新加坡华侨银行策略师克里斯托弗·黄指出,如果美联储的公信力受到质疑,可能会侵蚀市场对美元的信心,并加速资金流入包括黄金在内的避险资产。高盛集团预测黄金价格明年年中有望触及4000美元/盎司。

  今日最新数据显示,COMEX黄金期货一度突破3445美元/盎司关口,再次创下历史新高。自4月7日以来,COMEX黄金期货涨超14%。此外,昨日现货黄金价格日内一度涨近100美元/盎司。截至发稿,现货黄金价格突破3440美元/盎司,创历史新高。

  市场人士:追涨需谨慎

  金瑞期货贵金属研究员吴梓杰告诉期货日报记者,今年黄金价格不断创新高,主要原因有三点:一是黄金实物需求增长。自俄乌冲突爆发以来,各国“去美元化”诉求愈发显著,去年全球央行购金量连续三年超过1000吨,今年一季度中国人民银行继续小幅增持黄金,有效支撑了金价。机构和个人投资方面,黄金ETF的持续正流入以及投资金条的火爆也导致实物需求进一步增长。

  二是地缘政治风险抬升金价。中东和俄乌局势反复、美国关税政策带来的经济风险和不确定性大幅增加,作为优质的避险资产,黄金自然受到追捧。

  三是资本市场的前瞻交易行为。虽然十年期美债的实际收益率仍在2.1%左右的高位,但利率期货已对激进的降息预期进行计价,叠加美元指数自去年11月的高点回落,流动性边际宽松与机构资金顺势加仓,共同推高了金价。

  事实上,当前各国投资者为寻求“避风港”,加速增持黄金、欧元、日元等资产。记者注意到,金价冲高时,黄金ETF的表现显著跑赢现货。今年以来,国内主要黄金ETF的涨幅约为35%,高于同期金价30%的涨幅;更有海外黄金ETF的涨幅达到50%。另外,黄金产业链上游的矿企如紫金矿业、山东黄金和湖南黄金等在金价大涨的情况下销售利润飙升,今年以来股价涨幅十分可观。

  美国潜在的通胀和经济压力、全球贸易战升级等因素使各国的投资者和机构涌入黄金市场避险。世界黄金协会(WGC)最新公布的数据显示,今年一季度,黄金ETF录得三年来最大的季度资金流入,净流入226.5吨。

  广发期货贵金属研究员叶倩宁告诉记者,投资黄金最重要的逻辑是黄金的货币属性,当货币超发或美元信用受损时,黄金的稀有性和优良的物理化学性质,作为“硬通货”能很好地起到保值和储藏的作用。另外,从金融属性来看,黄金与其他资产的相关性较低,机构投资者在其投资组合中往往会适度配置黄金,以更好地稳定投资组合的净值曲线,而商品属性又能让黄金在高通胀的环境中取得显著收益。

  金价持续上涨,今年还能“上车”吗?对此,吴梓杰认为,黄金中长期仍有较好的上涨前景。一旦美联储开启降息周期,叠加各国央行持续买入和美元走弱等因素,金价有望突破3500美元/盎司大关。不过,黄金连续上涨后,若美联储意外延长“更久更高”的利率立场,或者全球贸易战逐渐熄火,投机性多头预计会大量止盈,金价短线可能出现5%~10%的回撤。对于投资者而言,更合理的做法是在金价回调时分批加仓,以ETF配置为核心,辅以期货或期权进行战术性操作,并在每轮大幅拉升后及时对冲或减仓,保持仓位的灵活性。

  “黄金中长期上涨的驱动在于美国关税政策和债务压力带来的经济衰退风险提振避险需求,全球央行和金融机构持续购金使黄金基本面偏紧。在美联储偏‘鹰’的情况下,未来一段时间美国宏观政策风险和金融市场风险难以消退,多头对黄金的需求有所增加。展望后市,在美元持续贬值的情况下,金价年内有望达到3600美元/盎司。”叶倩宁说。

  韩国文化体育观光部周一表示,从本周开始,韩国将举办一系列欢迎国际游客的活动。

  “2025韩国欢迎周”将从4月25日持续到5月16日,恰逢日本黄金周和中国劳动节等重大节日,以及在韩国度假胜地济州岛举行的亚太经合组织(APEC)峰会高官会议,这些都是外国游客的高峰时间。

  韩国文化体育观光部表示,“欢迎周”活动的目的是为游客提供便利和积极的体验。

  在仁川机场、金浦机场、济州机场和釜山港国际客运站,将分阶段设置欢迎展位。摊位将展示韩国传统工艺品,并配备多语种导游,提供旅游信息和帮助。

  利用Naver的多语种地图平台制作的数字旅游导览地图将在展位和VisitKorea官方网站上提供。地图上包括工艺体验、地区旅游景点、货币兑换处、购物中心和便利设施等。

  韩国观光委将与26个观光合作企业合作,向参观欢迎摊位的外国游客提供折扣、代金券和纪念品。

  自2023年以来,韩国旅游委员会一直在旅游旺季举办类似的欢迎活动。第二轮欢迎活动计划于今年秋天举行,与10月至11月在庆州举行的亚太经合组织(APEC)领导人非正式会议同时举行。

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