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在美国总统特朗普对全球实施关税后,美联储发布的经济形势报告显示,美国经济仍在稳步扩张,但“普遍存在的不确定性”可能在未来几个月内抑制增长势头。周三,褐皮书报告指出:“自上一期报告以来,经济活动变化不大,但围绕国际贸易政策的不确定性在各地区报告中普遍存在。”

褐皮书每年发布八次,是美联储评估经济状况、决定是否调整利率的重要依据。本次报告是自2月底以来的首次调查,同时也是特朗普政府大规模关税后的第一份褐皮书。

报告指出,“由于经济不确定性上升,尤其是与关税相关的不确定性,多个地区的经济前景明显恶化。”

特朗普在本月初宣布关税政策,被称为“解放日”行动,引发自上世纪30年代以来最严重的全球贸易战。这场贸易争端令美国家庭和企业充满疑虑。经济学家警告称,贸易摩擦若持续,可能推高通胀、增加失业,甚至引发经济衰退。

在关税正式实施之前,为规避可能的涨价风险,一些消费者和企业提前采购。例如,受“抢跑效应”影响,美国新车销量飙升至三年来的最高水平。然而,如果将汽车销售剔除,美联储指出,自2月底以来,美国消费者支出实际上有所下降。

另外,美国人出行减少,外国游客来美人数也下降。经济学家估算,这一趋势可能令美国旅游业全年损失数百亿美元。

报告还指出,就业整体略有增长,但企业招聘意愿普遍谨慎。尽管私营企业新增岗位数量有所上升,政府部门以及依赖联邦资金的机构就业人数则出现下降。

褐皮书写道:“多个地区表示,企业在就业方面采取观望态度,暂停或放缓招聘,直到经济前景更加明朗。”

通胀方面,目前价格涨幅仍相对温和,但许多企业表示,由于关税影响,未来原材料成本预计将上升。他们计划将成本转嫁至消费者,但同时也意识到,消费者对价格上涨持抵触态度。

一些企业可能被迫自行消化额外成本,从而导致利润下降。美联储指出,企业利润的下滑将可能拖累整体经济表现,甚至促使企业裁员以控制开支。

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