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桂林市(秀峰区、永福县、资源县、雁山区、全州县、荔浦市、平乐县、七星区、叠彩区、灌阳县、灵川县、龙胜各族自治县、临桂区、象山区、恭城瑶族自治县、兴安县、阳朔县)








毕节市(织金县、金沙县、黔西市、赫章县、七星关区、大方县、纳雍县、威宁彝族回族苗族自治县)








新余市(渝水区、分宜县)








运城市(稷山县、盐湖区、临猗县、夏县、万荣县、新绛县、绛县、永济市、闻喜县、平陆县、芮城县、垣曲县、河津市)








保山市(施甸县、隆阳区、腾冲市、昌宁县、龙陵县)








肇庆市(端州区、鼎湖区、封开县、德庆县、高要区、四会市、广宁县、怀集县)








松原市(乾安县、前郭尔罗斯蒙古族自治县、长岭县、宁江区、扶余市)








淮安市(洪泽区、淮安区、涟水县、金湖县、淮阴区、盱眙县、清江浦区)








岳阳市(平江县、君山区、汨罗市、岳阳楼区、华容县、云溪区、临湘市、湘阴县、岳阳县)








营口市(老边区、大石桥市、站前区、鲅鱼圈区、西市区、盖州市)








宝鸡市(扶风县、陇县、眉县、麟游县、千阳县、岐山县、金台区、渭滨区、太白县、陈仓区、凤翔区、凤县)








上海市(青浦区、长宁区、宝山区、金山区、徐汇区、闵行区、杨浦区、浦东新区、普陀区、松江区、黄浦区、静安区、虹口区、崇明区、嘉定区、奉贤区)

关税持续反复,新材料领域,我们认为率先受益的为半导体产业链相关材料,具备国产替代和景气度较高双重逻辑,适合中长期关注。细分看,主要有电子化学品、电子特气、靶材、电子树脂、膜材料等细分领域。

行情回顾

新材料指数涨跌幅为-4.9%,跑输沪深300指数2%。观察各子板块,碳纤维指数-5.3%、半导体材料指数-1.9%、OLED材料指数-7.4%、膜材料指数-5.7%、涂料油墨指数-4.4%。本周新材料板块中,实现正收益个股占比为+19.2%,表现占优的个股有石英股份(+42%)、沃顿科技(+16.3%)、泛亚微透(+14.8%)、泰和新材(+12.5%)、华特气体(+7.4%),国产替代标的涨幅靠前。

本周重点关注:新材料国产替代

关税持续反复,新材料领域,我们认为率先受益的为半导体产业链相关材料,具备国产替代和景气度较高双重逻辑,适合中长期关注。细分看,主要有电子化学品、电子特气、靶材、电子树脂、膜材料等细分领域。

长期观点 

1、碳纤维:我们认为目前T300大丝束已处于阶段性底部阶段,但考虑到部分公司仍有产能快速释放,不排除后期继续价格战的可能,但原丝环节的企业仍较少,目前价格战停留在碳纤维环节,单从原丝环节来看,主要系吉林碳谷,上海石化及蓝星等少数几家掌握制备工艺,原丝环节降价可能性不大,建议关注吉林碳谷等。民品T700领域,国内目前主要系中复神鹰及长盛科技两家,中复神鹰为国内龙头产能已达2.85万吨(在建3wt),长期来看,下游新能源领域持续高景气,公司产能扩张有望带动业绩持续释放,预浸料业务如进展顺利后续或带来新增量,建议关注中复神鹰(与化工团队联合覆盖)。 

2、电子材料:我们跟踪的折叠屏手机中UTG环节,在消费电子颓势时折叠手机下游需求仍高增,伴随行业价格带的不断下行,进一步促进下游需求有望实现正向循环。我们持续看好未来3-5年折叠屏手机的持续渗透,我们认为,产业链中的卡脖子环节仍将在一段时间内获得相应溢价。此外我们看好光刻胶及高频高速CCL上游原材料中的国产替代逻辑。重点推荐:世名科技(与化工团队联合覆盖)、凯盛科技(与电子团队联合覆盖)。 

3、新能源材料:光伏方面,下游需求端仍维持较快增速,但产业链各环节扩张较快,我们判断需等待出清。风电方面,目前海风突破层层阻碍,持续放量,风电叶片环节集中度较高,重点推荐时代新材(与电新团队联合覆盖)。

风险提示:下游需求不及预期,行业格局恶化,原材料涨价超预期,关税存在一定不确定性。

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