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热点栏目自选股数据中心行情中心资金流向模拟交易客户端

  高盛发布研报称,予海天国际(01882)“买入”评级,基于2025年预期市盈率13倍计算,目标价26.2港元。公司2025-2027年预计营收分别为173.52亿元、180.31亿元、196.10亿元;EBITDA分别为37.01亿元、38.02亿元、43.12亿元;每股收益分别为2.06元、2.10元、2.34元。考虑到客户可能因关税不确定性延迟资本支出,下调2025年下半年-2030年每股收益预期10-12%。基于其全球销售日益多元化和强大的产品竞争力维持买入评级。当前12个月预期市盈率为8.1倍,EV/EBITDA为5.6倍,低于历史平均水平1个标准差。

热点栏目自选股数据中心行情中心资金流向模拟交易客户端

  汽配股早盘涨幅居前,浙江世宝(01057)上涨18.48%,报3.59港元;耐世特(01316)上涨9.50%,报4.61港元;五菱汽车(00305)上涨4.76%,报0.44港元;敏实集团(00425)上涨2.93%,报17.54港元。

乖宝宠物成为年营收最高的国产宠物食品上市公司——2024年,这家公司营收达到52.45亿元,同比增长21.2%;净利润为6.25亿元,同比增长45.7%。

在主要业务涉及宠物食品的中国公司中,这已经是第一梯队的销售业绩,并逐渐与其他品牌拉开差距。作为对比的是,主业包括宠物粮、零食等的天元宠物、佩蒂股份在2024年的营收分别为27.64亿元、16.59亿元。中宠股份2024年全年业绩尚未披露,但其前三季度营收为31.89亿元,如果按照推测的40亿元左右的全年营收计算,其仍低于乖宝宠物的销售额。

乖宝宠物一个关键的策略是布局自有品牌。

这一策略让这个以宠物食品出口代加工起家的公司得以转型。自2013年以来,乖宝宠物陆续创建了麦富迪、弗列加特等核心自有品牌矩阵,并推出弗列加特高肉猫粮、弗列加特全价冻干猫粮、麦富迪双拼粮、麦富迪益生军团等多个产品系列,以及定位高端的狗粮品牌汪臻醇等等。

2024年,乖宝宠物自有品牌营收达到35.45亿元,同比增长29.14%;占总营收比重达到了67.59%,比2023年的63.44%进一步提升4.15个百分点。

而这家公司的一个突出打法是做高端化。此前乖宝宠物在财报中反复强调高端化策略的推进,比如加快品牌高端化步伐,提升麦富迪品牌的高端产品占比,同时定位高端的肉食猫粮品牌弗列加特也在进行产品升级等等。

押宝高端化与当下中国市场的宠物消费趋势有关。《2023年中国宠物食品消费报告》显示,食品作为刚需产品,是整个宠物消费市场规模的最大细分市场。伴随着精细化高营养养宠趋势,即便在疫情因素影响下,食品市场也仍然保持活力。该报告称,犬食品消费市场规模较往年基本持平,猫食品市场则有大幅提升,较往年增长15.6%。犬猫营养品市场份额的提升,与当下精细化高营养养宠所推动的消费趋势相吻合。

另外现阶段对于大公司来说,高端化有利于瞄准细分市场,做出差异化的产品,并借助品牌提升溢价空间。这也是与低价竞争的白牌或小品牌拉开差距的做法。

乖宝宠物盈利能力提升也在业绩中有所表现。

2024年公司的毛利率为42.27%,较去年同期毛利率增长了5.43个百分点。其中乖宝宠物主推的主粮毛利率水平更高,达到44.70%,而零食的毛利率为39.47%。

但乖宝宠物的另一个做法是,优化公司品牌架构,聚焦细分市场扩大品牌份额。于是在它通过主力品牌高端化扩大市场和打响品牌知名度后,也逐步将触角延伸至更低的价格带,利用大公司的品牌效应、研发体系以及供应链为平价品牌背书。

譬如在今年2月,乖宝宠物宣布“佰萃”宠物粮品牌开始独立运营,定位是平价粮,以“垂直厂牌”的模式运营,直接打通乖宝宠物的自有工厂和终端用户。

在电商平台可以对比发现乖宝宠物不同品牌矩阵的零售价格差异——麦富迪的猫粮每千克在17.9元左右,其中的Barf生骨肉系列将每千克单价拉高至48.5元左右;弗列加特每千克在83.3元左右;汪臻醇的每千克价格在94.5元左右;佰萃则每千克价格为14.5元左右。由此可见弗列加特、汪臻醇定位高端,麦富迪为中高端,佰萃则是平价定位。

乖宝宠物转型建立自有品牌并取得业绩突破的背后,反映出的一个行业趋势是,国产宠物粮正在趋向于替代进口宠物粮。

在2024年天猫双十一猫狗食品榜单TOP10中,国产品牌占据6席,前5名都是本土品牌,其中乖宝宠物旗下的麦富迪连续4年排名首位。

事实上,国产宠物粮的崛起与国产新消费品牌爆发的路径类似。而线上占据优势的其中一个原因,也在于国产品牌与外资品牌相比,更倾向于将营销和渠道资源砸向线上,以获得更快的品牌认知。

以乖宝宠物为例,其2024年的销售费用呈显著增长态势,销售费用达到10.55亿元,较2023年的7.21亿元同比增长46.31%——这一增速也超过了同期营收21.2%的增长率。

同时国产宠物粮品牌也在供应链上下功夫。除了乖宝宠物,其他国产宠物粮品牌也在纷纷自建工厂,比如诚实一口、高爷家、阿飞与巴弟、卫仕、帕特、网易天成等。

而眼下宠物行业也面临动荡的关键时刻。美国对中国的关税霸凌实施后,行业普遍关注的问题是,自美国进口的宠物粮是否会涨价,以及中国宠物企业对外出口业务是否会受到影响。

乖宝宠物也难逃关税摩擦导致出海受阻的风险。

美国是这家公司产品的主要出口国,其对美出口产品主要在中国及泰国工厂生产。截至4月20日,美国政府宣称对中国输美商品征收“对等关税”的税率分品类最高达245%,对泰国输美商品征收“对等关税”的税率为36%(暂缓90天实施)。由此,这家公司中国工厂对美出口订单量存在较大不确定性,泰国工厂对美出口的价格优势被削弱、订单量存在一定的不确定性。

年报显示,2024年乖宝宠物的境外收入为16.93亿元,同比增加15.70%;占总收入的比例为32.29%,与2023年的33.83%基本持平。这也意味着,如果关税摩擦持续,乖宝宠物若将出口市场转移至国内消化,短期内也将承受相当的压力。

  4月23日一早,“黄金巨震”相关话题一度冲上微博热搜第一。

  黄金在经历大涨后开始跳水,周三亚市早盘,现货黄金一度跳水,最低触及3312美元/盎司。此前黄金价格强势上行,连续刷新历史高位。

  此次金价上行的直接导火索是特朗普再次在社交媒体上点名批评鲍威尔,称其“太迟先生”(Mr.TooLate),暗示其对经济放缓反应迟钝,引发市场对美联储政策独立性的高度关注。

  鲍威尔近期曾在公开场合强调,货币政策的独立性“属于法律问题”。

  南华期货贵金属新能源研究组负责人夏莹莹表示,中长期看涨金价,但短期来看,金价经历持续性快速上涨后,需警惕多头获利了结压力。

  当地时间22日,美国总统特朗普表示,无意解雇美联储主席鲍威尔,尽管他对美联储未更快降息感到失望。特朗普说:“我们认为美联储应该降低利率,现在是一个完美的时机。”

  分析师认为,相关表态降低了美联储货币政策剧烈转向的风险,也缓解了外界对美联储政策独立性的担忧,从而对黄金多头构成短线打击。

  尽管周三出现回调,黄金整体趋势仍维持强势。截至发稿,伦敦金现重回3372美元/盎司。

  HeraeusMetals贵金属交易员祖姆菲(AlexanderZumpfe)指出:“当下投资者对政治干预货币政策的担忧,正在成为推动黄金的关键变量。”他表示,黄金近期技术支撑位在每盎司3450美元和3400美元,当前的上涨动能或将继续推动金价向3600美元靠拢。

  XS.com分析师古鲁(RaniaGule)表示:“当前黄金的上行趋势并非短期情绪推动,更反映了市场对全球政治、经济体系稳固性的重新评估。”

  Pepperstone的布朗(MichaelBrown)补充道,在美国国内政策博弈不断加剧的背景下,黄金作为不受舆论波动影响的“稳态资产”,其避险价值被市场重新评估。分析人士认为,金价短期内仍将围绕美联储政策、美国政治博弈及地缘局势等不确定性波动,在流动性依然充裕的环境下,黄金的结构性上涨空间仍未关闭。

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