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撅起屁股用手扒开bl,掌握高效学习方法,助你在考研中脱颖而出!
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  来源:华尔街见闻

  德银认为美元牛市终结、熊市开启,核心原因包括全球对美双赤字融资意愿降、美资产持有量见顶、多国更倾向于国内财政促增长。欧元/美元汇率将在2025年结束时达到1.15,之后逐步逼近1.30。

  美元一轮较长的熊市要开始了?

  23日,德银TimBaker团队发布研报指出,自年初以来,全球出现了一系列重大变化,包括美国贸易政策的转变、德国财政政策的调整以及对美国地缘政治领导地位的重新评估。这些事件,正在挑战自二战以来全球金融体系的基础,共同促成了美元进入下行周期的前提条件。

  德银认为,其中的核心原因包括全球对美双赤字融资意愿降、美资产持有量见顶、多国更倾向于国内财政促增长。

  报告预测,欧元/美元汇率将在2025年结束时达到1.15,2026年升至1.20,之后逐步逼近1.30。美元将结束“高利率”时代,这对全球经济和资本流动将产生深远影响。

  美元熊市的核心:全球对美国“双赤字”融资意愿下降

  德银认为,美元的牛市已走到尽头,预示着一轮较长的熊市开始。

  2025年年初以来,美元指数表现已出现明显转折,从长时间的强势逐步走向调整。理由集中在三个核心评判:

  报告强调,市场可能出现非线性反应和制度性突破的风险,特别是美联储的独立性可能受到挑战。

  风险提示及免责条款

  市场有风险,投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议,也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资,责任自负。

热点栏目自选股数据中心行情中心资金流向模拟交易客户端

  花旗发布研报称,金沙中国(01928)首季业绩表现符合预期,净收入同比下跌6%,物业EBITDA跌12%至5.35亿美元,大致符合该行预期的5.3亿美元及市场预测的5.41亿美元。集团旗下澳门伦敦人酒店目前已全面投入营运,计及最新的市场博彩收入趋势、即将来临的五一长假期,以及大股东LVS表明有意继续从市场上购入金沙中国的股份,再加上恢复派息,预料都将为其股价提供支持,维持“买入”评级,目标价21港元。

  随着伦敦人酒店在五一假期前全面投入营运,花旗预料金沙中国今年下半年EBITDA将显著复苏,相信首季业绩公布后,市场对业绩表现或令人失望的担忧已消散。

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