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  欧洲债券上涨,德国国债跑输,交易员在官员发出鸽派信号后上调对欧洲央行的降息预期。这推动意大利—德国国债利差收窄至四周低点。

  交易员预计2025年剩余时间将降息67个基点,周三预计为约62个基点。欧洲央行管委OlliRehn表示,央行很可能需要进一步下调利率,且不应排除更大幅度降息的可能性。

  当被问及是否存在更大幅度降息的可能性时,欧洲央行首席经济学家PhilipLane在接受采访时表示:“从理念上讲,我们不会对任何利率路径作出预设承诺”,并称“没有理由说我们永远只能选择默认的25个基点”调整幅度。但他强调了这些言论的理论探讨性质。

  另据报道,随着全球环境日益动荡,欧洲央行势将考虑改变其货币政策战略,以便对价格冲击做出更灵活的反应。

  市场

  德国国债收益率跌4个基点,至2.45%;

  德债期货涨57点,至131.83;

  意大利10年期国债收益率跌8个基点,至3.55%;

  意大利与德国10年期国债利差收窄4个基点,至109个基点;

  法国10年期国债收益率跌7个基点,至3.17%;

  10年期英国国债收益率跌5个基点,至4.51%。

  知情人士透露,欧洲央行将考虑调整其货币政策战略,以便在当前全球环境日益动荡的背景下,更灵活地应对价格冲击。

  要求匿名的知情人士透露,欧洲央行管委会成员将在5月6日至7日于葡萄牙波尔图举行的非正式会议上,首次就正在进行的战略评估展开深入讨论,届时他们将讨论对货币政策策略做出这一转变的理由。

  知情人士称,会议将审议由为此评估而成立的两个工作小组以及货币政策委员会撰写的报告,后者由来自欧洲央行及欧元区20个国家中央银行的高级经济学家组成。

  欧洲央行正试图为一个预计将出现更频繁且更具破坏性的经济冲击的环境做好准备。这项评估始于去年夏季,重点是详尽审视央行上一次此类评估的结果。

  2021年7月发布的前次战略评估很快遭遇了历史性通胀浪潮的考验,令欧洲央行措手不及,并引发外界批评,认为官员在加息方面反应过慢。

  近期,美国总统特朗普的关税政策引发全球市场剧烈波动,也突显出在政界越来越倾向以强硬手段干预经济的背景下,前景可能迅速生变。过去几周,欧洲的经济前景发生剧变,使得官员们对通胀走势的判断变得更加不确定。

  更加灵活

  包括欧洲央行执行理事IsabelSchnabel在内的多位决策者表示,随着全球经济向更绿色、更数字化转型,以及贸易关系紧张,未来供应中断可能更加频繁。这意味着欧洲央行需调整其对增长与通胀的评估方式,并在应对冲击时展现出更强的灵活性。

  参与此次战略评估的经济学家聚焦两个核心问题:欧洲央行所处的宏观经济新环境,以及这对货币政策及其工具的影响。

  虽然官员们仍可能忽略与2%通胀目标轻微偏离的情形,但若出现更严重偏离,可能需要更强烈的政策回应,尤其是在部分官员认为消费者与企业的通胀预期稳定性下降的情况下。

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