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  4月20日电据美国消费者新闻与商业频道(CNBC)19日报道,CNBC最新全美经济调查显示,由于民众不满美国总统特朗普对关税、通胀和政府支出的处理方式,导致特朗普在其总统任期内的经济支持率处于最差水平。另有49%的受访者认为,美国未来一年的经济将恶化。

  据报道,这项对全美1000名美国人进行的调查显示,44%的受访者认可特朗普的总统工作表现,51%的受访者不认可。在经济问题方面,特朗普的支持率为43%,反对率为55%。

  当地时间18日,美国总统特朗普再度对美国联邦储备委员会主席鲍威尔施压,要求美联储立即降息。

  这已经是特朗普连续两天就利率问题催促鲍威尔了。

  此前,特朗普已经多次敦促美联储降息。而鲍威尔在多个公开场合强调,美联储将保持政策独立性,称当前美国的关税政策令美联储在制定货币政策时极为棘手。

  与此同时,各国货币政策管理者都对美国单边贸易政策表达了担忧,称全球经济正面临前所未有的挑战。

  “我们的政策工具只能在同一时间点解决一个问题”

  在第一个总统任期内,特朗普就没少公开批评美联储及鲍威尔,经常敦促美联储降息。

  如今,开启第二个总统任期,特朗普继续对鲍威尔开启“催催催”模式。

  上月19日,特朗普在社交媒体上发文称,“美联储最好还是降息”,因为美国关税影响开始逐渐渗透到经济中。本月4日,在所谓“对等关税”政策宣布后的两天,特朗普再次称“现在是鲍威尔宣布降息的绝佳时机”。

  面对总统的压力,鲍威尔在多个场合强调,美联储要保持政策的独立性。

  “我们绝不会受到任何政治压力的影响,人们可以随便说什么,这没问题,但我们会严格按照不考虑政治或其他任何外部因素的方式行事。”

  一次次被美联储“掌门人”怼回来,特朗普17日又在社交媒体上发文称,鲍威尔的行动总是“又迟又错”。他说,行动太慢的鲍威尔早该像欧洲央行一样降息了,现在更应该立即降息。他还说,鲍威尔“越早走人越好”。

  此前一天,鲍威尔在芝加哥经济俱乐部发表讲话时指出,美国政府已宣布的关税上调幅度远超预期水平,其带来的经济影响同样可能超出预期,令美联储货币政策制定面临更棘手的局面。

  “大多数时候,当经济疲软时,通胀率会低、失业率会高。这两种情况都需要降低利率来应对。所以大多数时候,(控通胀和保就业)这两个政策目标并不矛盾。但在当前(关税政策)的冲击影响下,我们观察到的指标显示失业率和通胀率将同时上升。但我们的政策工具在同一时间点只能用于解决一个问题。”

  鲍威尔的讲话十分明确,关税政策导致美国经济走势“怪异”,美联储不会急于降息,究竟是保持高利率抗通胀,还是更快降息托底经济,美联储可能需要留足观察的时间窗口。

  显然,特朗普希望美联储放宽货币政策、降低信贷成本以刺激经济的迫切需求暂时难以得到满足。

  美国莱利财富管理公司首席市场策略师阿特·霍根在接受媒体采访时直言:“这就是最坏的情境,因为没有有效的货币政策工具来应对这一点,这正是鲍威尔所提到的,这有点棘手。因为如果要面对上涨的价格并希望抑制它,就需要采取限制性政策;但如果价格上涨,同时经济增长放缓,那么你就希望刺激经济增长,然后你会发现自己处于进退两难的境地。我认为这并不是我们对未来的预测,但肯定的是,一切都取决于这场贸易战持续的时间。如果一个月后我们仍在讨论相同水平的关税,我肯定会说这种不确定性已经造成了重大经济损失。”

  “美国的政策正在损害市场对美元的信心”

  值得注意的是,在特朗普指责美联储不同意降息的时候,欧洲央行已经被迫行动起来了。

  欧洲央行17日在位于德国法兰克福的总部召开议息会议,决定将三大关键利率下调25个基点,这是欧洲央行自去年6月以来第七次降息。

  显然,与美联储相比,欧洲央行没有面临“两难”局面。

  最新数据显示,欧元区通胀持续回落,3月整体和核心通胀均呈下降趋势。与此同时,欧元区经济增长动能仍显不足,金融环境的放松未能有效刺激企业和居民融资意愿。

  欧洲央行行长拉加德17日表示,在美国关税政策引发贸易紧张局势的情况下,此次降息旨在应对外界对欧元区经济增长的担忧。拉加德警告称,美国的关税政策有可能使欧元区今年的经济增长由此前预期的0.9%降至更低。

  拉加德同时强调,关税战没有赢家,立场不同,所采取的策略决策将不尽相同。

  “我不会给现状下定义,贸易专家和评论人士都同意,关税战将带来负面后果。但负面影响各不相同,取决于你的立场。这也证明了这样一个事实,世界各地的货币政策决策不会相同。”

  多名专家指出,在通胀下降、经济增长乏力的背景下,如果贸易摩擦状况进一步恶化,不排除欧洲央行被迫采取更激进降息措施的可能。

  无论各国央行的决策如何,各国货币政策管理者都对美国单边贸易政策表达了担忧。

  当地时间16日,加拿大央行——加拿大银行宣布将基准利率维持在当前2.75%的水平不变。在该机构看来,美国贸易政策方向的重大转变和关税政策的不可预测性增加了不确定性、拖累经济增长前景并推高通胀预期。

  加拿大银行上个月刚刚宣布将基准利率下调25个基点至2.75%,并表示尽管加拿大经济今年开局强劲,但贸易紧张局势加剧和美国关税政策可能减缓加拿大经济活动步伐,并增加通胀压力。

  日本央行17日发出警告,称特朗普关税政策带来的不确定性可能严重冲击日本脆弱的经济复苏,并影响央行未来的加息决策。

  日本央行行长植田和男说:“一方面,美国关税政策将直接影响贸易活动,例如影响日本的出口,进而影响日本经济,此外美国的关税等政策会导致不确定性显著增加,对企业和家庭的信心造成冲击,还可能对国际金融资本市场产生负面影响。照此下去,美国的关税政策预计将成为导致日本经济下行的主要原因。”

  法国央行行长维勒鲁瓦近日对媒体的“吐槽”道出了全球货币政策管理者的心声。

  在维勒鲁瓦看来,特朗普政府的保护主义政策及其反复无常的贸易立场,正在动摇美元作为全球主要储备货币的信任基础,损害市场对美元的信心。

  素材来源丨环球资讯广播《环球深观察》

  策划丨陈濛

  记者丨尚娟

  编辑丨杨楠

  签审丨邹浩宇

  监制丨关娟娟

  来源:总台环球资讯广播

  中新社潍坊4月20日电题:鸢都千年线乘风万里云

  作者李欣王采怡祁建月

  4月19日,一年一度的潍坊国际风筝会如期而至,世界各地的风筝再次飞上“鸢都”潍坊的天空。

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