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  汇通财经APP讯——在全球外汇市场即将进入复活节假期之际,美元展开了一场令人意外的“复活”反击战。周四亚洲时段,美元兑日元从七个月低点强势反弹,带动美元指数小幅回升,一度上涨0.48%至99.74附近,为近期持续下跌的美元带来一线生机。

  美日谈判成关键转折点

  美元兑日元在亚洲早盘一度跌至141.61日元的七个月低点,但在日本经济再生大臣赤泽亮正明确表示美日贸易谈判未涉及汇率问题后快速反弹,最高触及142.88日元,涨幅约0.72%。这一表态缓解了市场对美日可能达成汇率协议的担忧,为美元提供了喘息之机。值得注意的是,日元多仓目前处于1986年以来的最高水平,这意味着一旦谈判出现不利结果,日元可能面临大规模获利了结的压力。欧元涨势暂歇但韧性犹存

  欧元在亚洲早盘小幅回落,一度下跌0.48%至1.13643美元,尽管如此,欧元仍有望实现连续第四周的上涨。市场普遍预期欧洲央行将在当日晚些时候宣布降息25个基点,但这一预期似乎已被市场充分消化。花旗分析师最新报告预测,欧元在未来6-12个月内可能触及1.20美元的高点,之后美元或将重新走强。

  商品货币回吐涨幅

  美元近期的疲软使得商品货币获得喘息空间。纽元成功站上50日和200日移动均线,但未能进一步扩大涨幅,周四小幅走弱,目前下跌约0.5%,交投于0.5902附近,上一交易日曾触及0.5943的近五个月高点。澳元目前下跌0.49%至0.6339美元,尽管就业数据表现强劲,但市场对澳洲联储5月降息的预期仍未改变。

  小结

  随着复活节长周末的临近,外汇市场交投趋于清淡。尽管美元出现技术性反弹,但分析师普遍认为,全球投资者减持美元资产的趋势仍在持续。花旗报告指出,虽然美元储备货币地位尚未受到真正威胁,但“抛售美国资产”的资金流动可能在今年持续对美元构成压力。在美日贸易谈判、欧洲央行决议等重大事件影响下,外汇市场的波动可能才刚刚开始。

  北京时间14:56,美元指数现报99.61。

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