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财联社4月26日讯(编辑潇湘)在特朗普频繁催促美联储主席鲍威尔降息的背景下,本周美国市场对于美联储货币政策话题的关注度也有所升温。而其中,克利夫兰联储主席哈马克本周四的一番讲话无疑是其中最为受到瞩目的。

哈马克在当时的讲话中排除了美联储5月降息的可能性,但暗示6月可能降息。受其被市场解读为“鸽派”的言论影响,利率互换合约一度显示美联储6月降息概率攀升至了约65%。

然而,在美联储自本周六起正式踏入5月议息会议前的“噤声期”之际(接下来一周多时间里将不会再有美联储官员发表公开讲话),素有“新美联储通讯社”之称的著名美联储“喉舌”记者NickTimiraos却突然在X平台上发帖提醒投资者,不应过度理解哈马克的这段讲话。

换言之,他认为哈马克的讲话并不像人们脑补的那么鸽派。Timiraos指出:

事实上,尽管目前距离美联储6月议息会议已只剩下了不到2个月的时候,但美联储届时究竟会如何抉择,眼下依然很难下断言。因为一系列能够反映对等关税影响的关键经济指标,要等几周后才能初见眉目——在当前还很难说到6月议息会议时,美国经济和通胀形势会处在一个怎样的状态之下。

美国银行证券公司高级美国经济学家AdityaBhave周五也表示,“他们(美联储)或许宁可晚一点,也不想犯错。美联储将选择静观事态对其双重使命的影响,然后再决定如何行动”。

对于美联储主席鲍威尔而言,眼下慢吞吞总比犯错误强……

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