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新傲慢与偏见:揭开那些不为人知的隐秘瞬间

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  每经编辑杜宇

  据央视新闻,当地时间22日,美国总统特朗普称美联储应该降低利率,且他无意解雇美联储主席鲍威尔。此外,特朗普还表示,希望美联储主席鲍威尔在利率问题上采取更加积极的行动。

  近期,美国总统特朗普施压美联储降息。在第一任期中,特朗普就频繁公开批评美联储及美联储主席鲍威尔,经常敦促美联储降息。开启第二任期以来,特朗普也多次对鲍威尔施压,要求其降息。4月17日,特朗普再度对鲍威尔施压,要求美联储立即降息。特朗普还称,鲍威尔的行动总是“又迟又错”。他说,行动太慢的鲍威尔早该像欧洲央行一样降息了,现在更应该立即降息。他还说,鲍威尔“越早走人越好”。而特朗普威胁解职鲍威尔的言论令市场不安。据彭博社21日报道,由于担心美国总统特朗普可能解雇美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔,引发投资者抛售美国股票、债券和美元,金价飙升至历史新高。

美国总统特朗普 图片来源:视觉中国

  美国联邦储备委员会主席鲍威尔表示,美联储不会屈从政治压力,面对特朗普政府近期关税政策带来的复杂经济局面,美联储将重点考虑对抗通货膨胀。

  据央视新闻,美国总统频繁攻击美联储主席,引发市场担忧。据美国媒体21日报道,美联储官员表示,美联储的独立性对于应对通胀非常重要。

  芝加哥联储银行行长奥斯坦·古尔斯比在接受美国消费者新闻与商业频道采访时表示,对于将通胀率压低至2%的长期目标来说,美联储的独立性至关重要。

  据央视新闻,《财富》杂志网站4月17日报道说,特朗普希望降低利率,以“抵消”他自己的关税政策所带来的通胀。美联社则认为,特朗普的关税政策令美国经济衰退风险加剧,而特朗普似乎希望把责任推到鲍威尔身上。

  彭博社记者怀特洛表示,不管是不是总统,特朗普都一向对利率有自己的想法,经常与美联储主席的想法相悖。特朗普的想法似乎是,“我要制定经济政策,美联储应该配合我”。

图片来源:央视新闻

  据央视新闻,美国《华盛顿邮报》分析了美联储暂不降息的四大原因:

  一是美联储想在行动前看到更多显示美国经济受阻的实质性证据。

  二是当前美国发动贸易战的背景是通胀依然高于美联储设定的2%目标。

  三是美国政府发动的贸易战存在显著不确定性,美联储因而不太可能快速行动。

  四是当前金融市场虽然高度震荡,但依然“功能正常”,而美联储一般在大型金融机构突然崩溃时才快速干预,以免引发系统性金融问题或经济衰退。

  据英国《金融时报》报道,市场目前普遍预测,美联储将在6月宣布降息25个或50个基点。然而,美国彼得森国际经济研究所所长亚当·波森认为,美联储“可能而且有理由等到9月”再降息。

  由于美国政府当前的关税政策,美国经济正面临通货膨胀加剧和经济增长放缓同时发生的风险,这可能令美联储陷入“艰难权衡”的困境。美联社分析称,就业疲软、失业率上升通常会导致经济衰退,此时美联储往往会通过大幅降息以刺激借贷和支出。如果通胀加剧,美联储可能被迫维持甚至提高利率来抑制物价上涨。

  美国有线电视新闻网给出了具体解释,美联储本身担负双重职责——保障就业市场健康和保持物价稳定,而这两点正处于矛盾之中。鲍威尔曾指出一个路线图,即如果要在保障就业市场健康和保持物价稳定中选择优先处理哪一个,他会选择处理两者中更加紧迫的问题。考虑到美国当前的情况,这可能是高通胀,这就意味着要保持高利率。鲍威尔的表态可能暗示着,美联储正为某种形式的滞胀做准备。在这种情况下经济增长会停滞,通胀居高不下,而失业率开始上升,而美联储只能两害相权取其轻,选择去处理通胀问题。

  每日经济新闻综合央视新闻

  封面图片来源:视觉中国

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