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  本周初发展中国家的货币和股票均出现上涨,原因是资金持续从美国流出,促使投资者关注被低估的新兴市场资产。MSCI发展中国家货币指数周一上涨0.3%,收于去年10月初以来的最高水平。在Bloomberg追踪的一篮子货币中,波兰兹罗提、匈牙利福林和罗马尼亚列伊的升值幅度最大。

  对美国经济放缓的担忧,以及最近对美国总统唐纳德·特朗普可能解雇美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的担忧,助长了所谓的“抛售美国”交易,导致美国股市和美元下跌。美元一度跌至2023年底以来的最低点。

  杰富瑞外汇主管BradBechtel表示:“这是从美国向欧洲的轮换,这也使一些新兴市场受益。”

  美元贬值,新兴市场货币触及六个月高位

  道明证券外汇策略师JayatiBharadwaj认为,美联储降息将导致美元在今年下半年进一步走软。她表示,这样的背景对新兴市场来说是个好兆头。

  周一,特朗普加大了对鲍威尔的批评力度,警告称如果美联储不立即降息,美国经济可能会放缓,并称鲍威尔为“失败者”。

  尽管美国的困境在短期内增强了新兴市场的吸引力,但投资者将密切关注全球经济放缓的迹象。这种情况如果成为现实,可能会对发展中经济体造成重大打击,并扼杀风险偏好。

  麦格理集团宏观策略师ThierryWizman表示,“只要即将到来的全球经济放缓对新兴市场的影响相对较小”,新兴市场的反弹就能持续下去。“然而,我担心,我们最终会看到经济放缓影响到新兴市场。”

  在拉丁美洲,墨西哥比索兑美元回吐了早些时候的涨幅,而巴西市场因当地假日休市。

  新兴市场股票指数也上涨了0.3%,缩减了本月迄今的跌幅。

  在信贷市场,对油价波动更为敏感的国家——从安哥拉、加蓬到哥伦比亚——表现不佳。由于对全球能源需求的担忧日益加剧,布伦特原油价格下跌超过2%。

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