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财联社4月17日讯(编辑杨斌)经历了短暂的调整,黄金价格回到了屡创历史新高的轨迹。在昨日突破前期高点,冲上3300美元/盎司后,今日COMEX黄金期货价高位震荡,盘中触及3370美元。在近期的反弹中,国际金价与美元指数走势的负相关性十分明显。业内认为,美元信用体系正在弱化,而关税冲击将加速去美元化进程,黄金的牛市逻辑再度被强化。

尽管在对等关税落地之初,黄金因流动性问题被抛售跟随其他大类资产一同下跌,但4月8日起黄金期货价格便开始反弹,目前已从低点上涨了约13%。

图:COMEX黄金期货价格K线走势

(资料来源:Wind数据,财联社整理)

东方金诚指出,特朗普关税政策反复不定,引发市场对美元资产的系统性信任危机,导致美债遭受大规模恐慌性抛售、美元指数大幅下挫,支撑金价回升。

与波动剧烈的10年期美债利率相比,近期国际金价与美元指数的反向走势更明显,单日涨跌趋势基本全部相反。

图:金价与美元指数反向走势明显

(资料来源:Wind数据,财联社整理)

兴业研究指出,财政赤字和贸易逆差是美元作为本位币的一个特征,也是当前美元环流体系的重要组成部分。作为本位币,美元指数长期以来享受到了相对于含金量的高估。但旨在解决双赤字问题的特朗普关税破坏美元环流体系,使得市场重新关注到含金量问题,而美元指数中期存在进一步下行的空间。

对于美元和黄金的关系,东方金诚认为,关税冲击将成为全球去美元化进程加速的催化剂,加剧美元霸权的裂痕与瓦解,进一步提升美元信用风险,而黄金作为全球广泛接受的最终支付手段,将对金价形成有力支撑。

兴业证券全球首席策略分析师张忆东近期更是在公开直播中表示,逆全球化将从根本上摧毁美元的霸主地位,黄金的超级牛市远没有结束。

事实上,弱化的美元信用使得以美元计价的资产(包括美债、美股)近期都发生了大跌。美联储主席鲍威尔今日凌晨已发出警告称,白宫的关税政策可能使美联储在“控制通胀”与“支持经济增长”之间陷入两难境地。对于下一步利率政策方向,美联储只得表示继续观望。

浙商银行FICC团队认为,前期黄金看涨的主要逻辑是主要是关税政策不确定性避险情绪、美元信用弱化支撑长期看涨逻辑、央行购金与散户投资情绪推动。短期来看,黄金价格能否进一步突破上涨要看美联储保经济还是治通胀的抉择,但美元信用弱化支撑长期看涨逻辑、央行购金将会持续存在。

本轮黄金价格自前期发生了约9%的调整。对于未来的金价走势,兴业研究预计,没有进一步流动性冲击的情况下,出现大幅调整的概率较低,黄金“可遇不可求”的买点仍将是常态。美元环流体系的破坏将进一步强化黄金的货币属性,使得牛市逻辑再度被强化。相较于此前的牛市,本轮黄金回撤幅度明显下降。

  英国半导体制造商AlphawaveIP集团周四表示,由于美国关税“快速发展的性质”带来的不确定性,无法提供2025年及以后的财务预测。

  Alphawave是一家为数据中心、网络和存储设计和许可芯片技术的公司,该公司报告称,2024财年的新订单激增34%,达到5.155亿美元。

  本月早些时候,美国芯片制造商高通公司表示有兴趣收购Alphawave。

  奢侈品集团爱马仕报告称,受美国市场销售强劲增长的推动,第一季度营收实现增长,但略低于分析师预期。

  按固定汇率计算,营收同比增长7%至41亿欧元(合46.5亿美元),略低于花旗分析师预期的7.6%增幅。花旗称这一业绩“表现稳健”。

  美洲地区销售额增长11%,法国以外的欧洲地区增长13%,法国本土增长14%,日本市场激增17%,包括中东在内的地区销售额增长14%,共同推动了整体增长。

  以铂金包闻名的爱马仕,其核心业务皮具和马具部门增长10%,但腕表销售额骤降10%,香水与美妆业务则与去年同期持平。集团在声明中表示:“中期来看,尽管全球经济、地缘政治和货币存在不确定性,集团仍对固定汇率下的营收增长保持信心。”

  本周早些时候,爱马仕市值超越法国同业巨头路威酩轩集团(LVMH),成为全球最大奢侈品企业。后者此前公布的第一季度销售额意外下滑。FactSet数据显示,截至周三,爱马仕市值为2495亿欧元,略高于路威酩轩的2427亿欧元。

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