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  本报记者 吴晓璐

  4月18日召开的国务院常务会议(以下简称“国常会”)提出,要持续稳定股市。

  从去年9月份以来,高层多次强调稳股市。作为经济的“晴雨表”,股市稳定,不仅有助于稳定企业和居民的预期和信心,为科技创新、产业转型升级提供资金支持,还可以通过股市“财富效应”促进消费,助力扩内需。此外,在全球股市波动加剧的背景下,我国股市稳定,还将吸引全球避险资金。

  政策工具向常态化治理演进

  去年9月份召开的中共中央政治局会议提出,要努力提振资本市场。去年12月份召开的中共中央政治局会议和中央经济工作会议、今年2月份召开的中共中央政治局会议,以及今年的《政府工作报告》均提出,“稳住楼市股市”。

  自去年9月份以来,为了稳住股市,多部门出台举措,打出政策“组合拳”。中长期资金入市指导意见及实施方案先后落地,入市长钱增多。两项资本市场支持工具落地显效,中国人民银行开展两次证券、基金、保险公司互换便利操作,金额超过1000亿元。监管部门持续推动股票回购增持再贷款增量扩面,据Wind资讯数据统计,截至4月20日,494家上市公司累计披露523单回购增持贷款,贷款金额上限合计1065.79亿元。

  4月初,全球股市波动加剧,中央汇金投资有限责任公司(以下简称“中央汇金”)出手增持ETF,并明确类“平准基金”定位,央行等多部门表态,多家央企真金白银护盘,A股韧性凸显。

  在此背景下,此次国常会提出,“要持续稳定股市,持续推动房地产市场平稳健康发展”,进一步凸显稳股市对经济的重要意义。

  “在当前国内外经济环境复杂多变的背景下,国常会再度强调‘要持续稳定股市’,既是短期应对全球金融波动、稳定市场预期的必要举措,更是深化资本市场改革、服务经济高质量发展的重要战略布局。”中国银河证券首席经济学家章俊在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示,从经济意义看,稳定股市是多重目标的协同:首先,通过财富效应提振居民消费意愿,促进内需循环;其次,引导资金向科技创新、新质生产力领域聚集,推动产业结构升级;最后,在美联储政策摇摆、地缘风险升温的背景下,以稳定的资本市场吸引全球避险资金,强化中国作为全球资金“避风港”的定位。

  “去年底中央经济工作会议与今年全国两会的工作部署中,已经多次提及防范外部冲击。同时,稳定股票市场也是稳增长政策的重要组成部分。”中金公司研究部首席国内策略分析师李求索在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示,一方面,股市是经济的“晴雨表”,稳定股票市场有利于提振信心;另一方面,当前稳增长政策对相关需求形成支撑,尤其支持消费的必要性进一步上升。提高居民可支配收入,从而带动消费“水涨船高”,将成为消费可持续发展之路,稳定股市,有利于拓宽居民财产性收入渠道。

  另外,国常会提出,“相关举措一旦推出,要直达企业和群众,提高落地效率,确保实施效果。”在章俊看来,政策逻辑从“应急干预”转向“长效机制”。“直达企业和群众”“确保实施效果”等细化要求,强调通过制度改革、中长期资金引入等举措增强市场韧性,标志着政策工具从短期托底向常态化治理演进。

  进一步完善稳市机制

  章俊表示,推动中长期资金入市是股市持续稳定的核心“抓手”,包括社保基金、险资等长线资金的权益投资比例提升,以及央企市值管理与分红回购的常态化。

  从公开信息来看,险资、社保基金、公募基金等中长期资金入市举措正在推进中。近日,第二批保险资金长期股票投资试点(以下简称“试点”)迎来新进展。泰康资产管理有限责任公司关于发起设立全资私募基金管理子公司泰康稳行私募基金管理有限公司的申请已获批。此前,第一批试点500亿元私募证券投资基金已全部投资落地,加上第二批试点额度1120亿元,试点规模累计达到1620亿元。另外,获准参与试点的保险公司也从2家增至8家。除了泰康人寿外,第二批其他获准参与试点的保险公司设立私募基金的工作正在积极推进中。

  长周期考核制度即将出台,有助于加大资金的中长期投资力度。据悉,财政部、人社部等部门正积极推进长期资金长周期考核政策文件的制定修订工作,将全面建立全国社保基金五年以上以及年金基金、保险资金三年以上长周期考核机制。另外,证监会将推出公募基金改革方案,进一步提高公募基金三年以上长周期考核比重。

  “后续,中长期资金的考核机制有待细化落地,打通中长期资金入市的堵点和难点。”李求索表示,同时,监管部门可能将进一步完善稳市机制,如优化类“平准基金”的运作机制,提高其在稳定市场方面的效率和作用。此外,持续提高上市公司质量和回报股东力度,让投资者形成稳定回报预期,加强交易监管,严惩违规行为,推动市场稳健运行。

  章俊表示,预计增量政策将聚焦三方面,首先,完善资本市场基础制度,包括优化退市机制、加速劣质企业出清,强化对控股股东减持的穿透式监管,以及探索资本利得税差异化征收以激励长期投资;其次,丰富政策工具箱,如推动类“平准基金”转向常态化运作,并通过立法明确资金来源、决策机制与透明度要求;最后,强化内外市场协同,包括深化跨境审计监管合作,以及扩大衍生品监测范围,以防控高频量化策略的顺周期风险。

  中国资产重估逻辑未变

  从基本面来看,今年一季度我国经济超预期,实现“开门红”,为A股提供支撑。据国家统计局数据,一季度国内生产总值318758亿元,按不变价格计算,同比增长5.4%,比上年四季度环比增长1.2%。

  另外,上市公司2024年年报和2025年一季报正在披露中。据Wind资讯数据统计,截至4月20日记者发稿,有309家上市公司披露2025年一季报,其中,208家公司营业收入同比增长,占比67.31%;192家公司归母净利润同比增长,占比62.14%。其中,电子、医药生物、机械设备等行业业绩增长态势较好。

  中央汇金等“国家队”增持托底,市场下行风险减弱。近日宽基指数ETF成交量增加,全市场ETF突破4万亿元大关。据Wind资讯数据统计,截至4月20日,全部ETF达到40147.98亿元,其中股票型ETF为29528.00亿元。

  章俊认为,A股中长期走势将呈现“渐进修复、结构分化”的特征。从短期视角看,市场仍处于盈利周期拐点与政策效果验证的过渡期。政策层面对资本市场的战略定位及类“平准基金”等工具的常态化预期,将为市场提供“下有底”的支撑。

  从中长期视角看,中国经济向科技与消费驱动的转型趋势明确,人工智能、低空经济等新兴产业将成为结构性主线,叠加企业盈利增速触底回升,科技板块有望在产业催化下引领市场重拾上行趋势。从资金层面来看,目前,A股主要指数估值仍存在上升空间,叠加居民储蓄向权益资产转移、险资配置比例提升及外资回流预期,中长期增量资金潜力可期。

  贝莱德首席中国经济学家宋宇在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示,在当前背景下,中国资产重估逻辑仍然成立。去年9月24日政策调整后,宏观政策更加灵活有力,监管政策更有利于民企发展及科技创新。今年以来,中国政策思路出现了很多积极的变化,如消费方面,在以旧换新的基础上更加重视收入增长,更加重视财富效应等;在科技发展方面更加尊重企业主体,提高投资容错空间。

蒙娜丽莎(002918.SZ)已经连续三年业绩下滑。继2021年净利润下滑44%、2022年下滑221%之后,2024年蒙娜丽莎营收46.31亿元,同比下滑22%;归属净利润1.25亿元,同比下滑53%。

房地产行业下行继续、陶瓷产业价格战内卷持续升级,蒙娜丽莎正和行业一起面临前所未有的严峻挑战。

产能过剩

主要用于建筑物装修的陶瓷作为房地产下游,市场需求深受房地产周期影响。根据中国建筑卫生陶瓷协会统计,2024年,全国陶瓷砖产量为59.1亿平方米,较2023年下降12.18%。

产能利用率方面,全国陶瓷砖年产能122亿平方米,实际产量在60亿平方米左右,产能利用率不足50%,属于“严重过剩”级别。各生产线出现频繁开停局面,生产周期缩短,部分产区甚至出现年初开窑晚,年末停窑早的现象。

随着需求下滑,陶瓷市场竞争进一步加剧。根据广东陶瓷协会公布的数据,2024年前11个月全国陶瓷砖产量75.2亿㎡,同比下降2.8%;全国卫生陶瓷产量1.39亿件,同比下降1.2%。产量下滑,价格战则进入白热化阶段。前11个月,全国建筑卫生陶瓷企业经营的主要业务收入2871亿元,同比下降12.8%;利润总额138.2亿元,同比下降26.2%。

应收款项抵房的暗雷

2017年12月在深交所上市的蒙娜丽莎是从集体所有制企业转制而来,后经股改整体变更为股份有限公司。公司主要从事建筑陶瓷产品研发、生产和销售,拥有“蒙娜丽莎”、“QD”、“美尔奇”三个品牌,主要产品可分为陶瓷砖、陶瓷板、岩板、瓷艺,销售渠道以国内市场为主,国际市场为辅。

蒙娜丽莎目前有四个生产基地,主要分布在广东佛山、广东清远、广西藤县、江西高安。公司以“大瓷砖、大建材、大家居”为发展战略,是陶瓷大板、岩板的开拓者,属行业头部品牌。不过,由于陶瓷行业门槛不高,公司2024年产量约为1.1亿平方米,市占率较低。

雪上加霜的是,上游危机已经波及下游,蒙娜丽莎也陷入信用危机。受房地产客户(主要为恒大、融创等)债务违约影响,公司2022年计提信用减值损失5.69亿元,其中主要为坏账准备。

需要注意的是,蒙娜丽莎手中还有应收款项抵房的“暗雷”。截至2024年8月12日,公司与房地产公司签订以房抵债协议金额为13.25亿元。此外,公司还有8.92亿元应收账款未收回。2024年公司仅计提坏账损失1.18亿元,未来不排除还有进一步减值的风险。

为了要回工程款,蒙娜丽莎甚至和客户对簿公堂。截至2月28日,除已披露的诉讼、仲裁事项外,蒙娜丽莎及子公司新增累计发生的诉讼、仲裁事项涉案金额合计为3.79亿元,占公司最近一期经审计净资产的10.97%。其中主要为公司作为原告涉及的诉讼、仲裁,合计金额为3.71亿元,主要系公司的应收款项回收。

蒙娜丽莎此前表示开始减少部分经营风险较大的房地产客户的销售规模,同时放弃了部分账期长、收款风险大、毛利水平低的工程订单。然而线下经销商方面,公司直言2024年经销商开拓情况和专卖店新增情况不如往年,经销网络开拓难度非常大,经销客户新建专卖店投入比较谨慎,也反映了大家对未来信心问题。

通过净利润率也可以看出蒙娜丽莎的业务陷入困境。2024年公司净利润率为2.7%,创出上市以来新低(不包括2022年因上游债务违约导致的亏损);毛利率为27.32%,创出上市以来第二低。

缺钱的恶性循环

工程核心业务缩减、线下消费端拓展不顺、债务难以收回,蒙娜丽莎自身也陷入了债务泥潭中。截至2024年底公司披露的资产负债率达52.59%,流动比率和速动比率分别为1.23和0.87,负债压力较大。

截至2024年末,蒙娜丽莎有息负债高达19.06亿元,占公司归母净资产的57%。其中一年内到期的非流动负债为4.51亿元,短期借款2.79亿元,长期借款8.59亿元,应付债券3.17亿元。

此外,蒙娜丽莎还有对外担保的隐形债务。截至2024年底,公司及控股子公司对外实际担保余额为3.67亿元,占公司2023年度经审计净资产的10.61%,均为公司对子公司提供的担保。

更令人担心的是,蒙娜丽莎现金流问题还在加剧。截至2024年底,公司应收账款周转率为6.14,创出历史第二低。应收账款周转率低加剧了坏账风险,再叠加行业产能过剩危机,使得蒙娜丽莎陷入了缺钱—难卖货—更缺钱的恶性循环中。

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