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  来源:全景财经

  上市五年,抗体专家——优宁维的股价已经自上市之初的134.13元暴跌了近八成。

  01

  上市业绩即变脸

  净利润三连跌

  公开资料显示,优宁维成立于2004年。公司自设立以来,始终坚持“优宁维-抗体专家”的战略定位。经过多年发展,目前优宁维已经成为一家提供抗体为核心的生命科学试剂及相关仪器、耗材和综合技术服务的科学服务商,客户覆盖高校、科研院所、医院、生物医药企业等等。

  2021年,优宁维凭借着强劲的发展势头与不错的业绩表现,成功实现创业板上市。2021年,公司实现营业收入11.10亿元,实现净利润1.09亿元,分别同比增长30.69%、42.15%。

  然而好景不长,自上市的第二年开始,优宁维就连续遭遇业绩滑坡。

  数据显示,优宁维2022、2023年营收分别为11.95亿元、12.26亿元,增长基本停滞;公司净利润分别为1.06亿元、0.40亿元,相较于2021年大幅下滑。而公司的业绩预告,则是将公司2024年的净利润定格在了盈利800万元至1200万元的区间,同比降幅高达70.24%至80.16%,扣非后净利润更是首度亏损1324万元至1724万元。

  图表:优宁维过去五年主要业绩表现

  资料来源:公司定期报告与业绩预告

  如果说过去几年公司的营收表现还算勉强,那净利润的表现就实在太不尽如人意。

  公司解释称,这两年生命科学服务业下游客户尤其是生物医药等工业客户正在遭受资本寒冬,下游需求下降,公司2024年营业收入未达预期;同时国内生命科学服务市场竞争进一步加剧,公司毛利率进一步承压;公司围绕抗体极致战略,持续加大对自主产品的研发投入,以及公司“自主品牌产品生产基地项目(生物制剂生产线建设项目)”投入使用新增运营成本,共同导致公司净利润大幅的下降。

  需求减弱与竞争加剧的双重因素夹击之下,公司盈利能力在不断削弱,导致公司毛利率水平自2020年的22.77%一路下行至2024年前三季度的18.54%。

  而现阶段优宁维目前不到20%的毛利率水平,也实在很难让人将这家公司与抗体专家、生命科学这些高大上的定位关联起来。

  02

  生命科学、抗体专家外衣下的代理商?

  实际上,稍微仔细了解一下优宁维的商业模式就能发现,这家公司的本质,并不是,至少目前还不是一家高技术壁垒的研发型生物医药企业,而仅仅只是披着高大上外衣下的经销商、代理商与贸易商。

  公司产品根据客户类型及需求,采取线上平台与线下渠道并行,直销为主、经销为辅的多元化销售体系,线上销售主要通过自有电商网站、微信公众号、微信小程序等线上平台开展。公司整合了Agilent、BD、CST、Cytiva(原GE生命科学)、R&Dsystems、Miltenyi、MSD、Qiagen等60多家行业知名品牌产品,形成了以第三方品牌产品为主、自主品牌产品为辅的供应体系,截止2024年底,公司能够提供生命科学产品SKU超900万种。

  900万这个看起来非常庞大的SKU规模当中,有多少是公司的自主品牌,多少是公司作为经销商代理的其他品牌产品,公司这几年年报当中并未详细披露。但参考公司2021年的招股说明书数据可知,截止2021年,公司自有品牌的SKU为45.87万种,在当年整体469.92万的SKU当中占比不到10%;而如果按照营收规模的标准来看,则比重更小。数据显示,2021年上半年,公司自有品牌的抗体与试剂销售收入仅为1169.49万元,占公司整体营业收入规模的比重仅为2.79%,而这已经是公司在过去三年所能达到的最大的自有品牌营收比重。

  作为对比,公司在IPO招股书当中提及的同为代理业务为主的对标企业达科为2021年自主品牌销售收入已经超过1.71亿元,占比超过20%,明显高于优宁维,且值得关注的是,达科为这几年毛利率水平基本维持在40%左右,更是遥遥领先于优宁维。

  此外,同为对标企业的联科生物作为三板企业,尽管其营收规模偏小,但是这家公司很早就有壮士断腕的魄力,自2012年开始从一家代理进口产品国内销售型企业转型做自主研发、进口替代产品。2021年,其营收规模近3800万元,毛利率46.45%,表现也都要好于优宁维。

  过低的自有品牌销售占比,以及过低的业务毛利率,使得优宁维甚至是以批发业企业的身份完成上市的,而并非医药制造业,这样来看优宁维的低毛利率也就不难解释了。

  当然这或许也是优宁维的无奈之举,因为仅依靠自主品牌当年那几千万的收入显然是无法达到上市标准,只能通过代理业务换取营收与利润规模,以实现上市目标。

  在近两年的公司定期报告当中,优宁维一直强调在稳步推进数字化转型建设和自主品牌产品研发的投入,持续提升一站式服务能力和研发能力。公司表示,截止2024年中,公司杭州抗体研发中心累计研发产品(IVD抗体、病理IHC抗体、伴随诊断抗体等原料抗体)SPU数超1900个,南京蛋白研发中心累计研发产品(药物靶点、细胞因子等)SPU数超1,500个,公司自主品牌产品进一步丰富。

  但截止目前,公司自有品牌产品到底到了多大的规模,能够给公司支撑多少的业绩,公司并未列明,但从公司这两年的盈利与业务表现当中或可见一斑。

  03

  贸易冲突下

  未来业务将更加如履薄冰?

  展望未来,优宁维以代理为主的业务模式,在愈演愈烈的贸易对抗当中,或将愈发如履薄冰。

  现阶段,全球生命科学行业的创新和发展仍然主要默克(MerckKgaA)、赛默飞(Thermo-Fisher)、丹纳赫(Danaher)等欧美企业主导。根据Frost&Sullivan 相关数据,当前中国抗体试剂市场90%以上都是被欧美国家垄断,而这也就导致了国内产业内企业以代理为主的业务模式。

  目前,优宁维所售产品主要生产厂商大多位于美国,在贸易冲突的影响下,未来一方面可能导致公司采购的的生命科学试剂、仪器及耗材受到限制。另一方面,即便采购行为不受限制,也会在关税的影响之下导致公司产品的采购成本大幅提升。而供应商、经销商如果涨价,对于现阶段正处于资本寒冬之下的生物医药行业而言,无疑是自杀式行为。而如果不涨价,那么成长增加的苦果,只能是优宁维自己吞下,这无异于在现阶段公司惨淡的财务表现之上,雪上加霜。

  现阶段,生命科学领域的国产替代之路看起来仍然任重道远,但展望未来,国内生命科学产业也将会同大多数先进制造业一样走上自主化的道路,像联科生物这样的坚定转型做自主研发、进口替代产品才是做的难而正确的事情。

  而对于优宁维而言,贸易冲突之下,或许留给它突围的时间已经所剩无多了。

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