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Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-16.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-16.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-16.com/label.php on line 82

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Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-16.com/label.php on line 82

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Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-16.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-16.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-16.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-16.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-16.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-16.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-16.com/label.php on line 82
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投资要点

25Q1归母利润略好于市场预期,收入同比增速转正。25Q1收入847亿,同环比+6%/-18%;归母净利润139.6亿,同环比+33%/-5%;扣非净利润118.3亿,同环比+28%/-8%;毛利率24.4%,较24Q4同口径+1pct,归母净利率16.5%,同环比+3.3pct/+2.2pct。亮点如下:1)Q1电池确收120gwh+,在途待确收规模进一步提升:25Q1动储合计出货量120gwh+,同增25%+,环降15%,其中动力100gwh,同比+30%,储能20gwh+,同比增15%+,环比持平。生产端我们预计Q1排产140gwh,同增50%+,在途产品进一步提升。全年出货量我们预计为630-650gwh,同增35%,其中储能我们预计为140-150gwh,增长50%+。动力端,公司国内份额维持42-45%,欧洲份额提升5pct至43%;储能端,公司中东、澳大利亚、欧洲市场放量,且交流侧占比超50%,对冲美国关税影响。2)储能均价回升,动储盈利环比提升:25年Q1动力电池均价我们预计微降至0.68元/wh(含税),同比-15%,价格已持续走稳,单wh利润我们预计接近0.09元/wh(不考虑其他业务),环比微增。储能方面,25Q1均价我们预计为0.6元/wh,环比提升5-10%,主要受益于交流侧占比提升,单wh利润我们预计恢复至0.08元,环比大幅提升0.03元/wh。另外,Q1储能国内占比进一步提升,已充分反应关税影响,后续新兴市场储能确收,储能结构将优化,盈利仍有提升空间。全年动储单wh利润我们预计为0.09-0.1元/wh。3)存货增加为25年高景气度备货,现金流依旧亮眼,投资收益有所增加。Q1投资收益13亿,同环比+64%/+56%;其他收益30.8亿,同环比-4%/-5%。费用端,Q1费用率7.1%,较Q4同口径降低0.8pct,主要由于财务费用为-23亿,而24Q4为-12亿;Q1减值损失为12亿,较24Q4减少5亿。Q1末存货656亿,较年初增加10%,主要为发出商品;Q1末预计负债为735亿(质保金和返利),较年初增16亿。Q1经营性净现金流329亿,同环比+16%/+11%;Q1资本开支103亿,同环比+46%/+4%。盈利预测与投资评级:我们维持公司25-27年归母净利润661/802/966亿元的预期,25-27年同增30%/21%/20%,对应PE为15/12/10x,考虑到公司为全球动力电池龙头,我们给予25年28xPE,对应目标价421元,维持“买入”评级。风险提示:电动车销量不及预期,原材料价格波动,竞争加剧超预期。正文1.业绩:25Q1归母利润略好于市场预期,收入同比增速转正25Q1归母利润略好于市场预期,收入同比增速转正。公司25年Q1营收847亿元,同环比+6%/-18%,归母净利润140亿元,同环比+33%/-5%,毛利率24.4%,较24Q4同口径+1pct,归母净利率16.5%,同环比+3.3/+2.2pct。

2.业务:Q1电池确收120gwh+,在途待确收规模进一步提升,储能均价回升,动储盈利环比提升Q1电池确收120gwh+,在途待确收规模进一步提升。公司预计25Q1动储合计出货120gwh+,同增25%+,环降15%,其中动力100gwh,同比+30%,储能20gwh+,同增15%+,环比持平。生产端我们预计Q1排产140gwh,同增50%+,在途产品进一步提升。全年出货量我们预计为630-650gwh,同增35%,其中储能我们预计为140-150gwh,增长50%+。动力端,公司国内份额维持42-45%,欧洲份额提升5pct至43%;储能端,公司中东、澳大利亚、欧洲市场放量,且交流侧占比超50%,对冲美国关税影响。

储能均价回升,动储盈利环比提升。25年Q1动力电池均价我们预计微降至0.68元/wh(含税),同比-15%,价格已持续走稳,单wh利润我们预计接近0.09元/wh(不考虑其他业务),环比微增。储能方面,25Q1均价我们预计为0.6元/wh,环比提升5-10%,主要受益于交流侧占比提升,单wh利润我们预计恢复至0.08元,环比大幅提升0.03元/wh。另外,Q1储能国内占比进一步提升,已充分反应关税影响,后续新兴市场储能确收,储能结构将优化,盈利仍有提升空间。全年动储单wh利润我们预计为0.09-0.1元/wh。

3.存货增加为25年高景气度备货,现金流依旧亮眼,投资收益有所增加费用端环比下降,主要系财务费用下降,投资收益有所增加。费用端,25年Q1期间费用60亿元,同环比-42%/-27%,财务费用为-23亿,而24年Q4为-12亿,期间费用率7.1%,同环比-5.9/-0.8pct,销售费用率1.0%,同环比-3.2/+0.1pct,管理费用率3.1%,同环比+0.2/+0.3pct,研发费用率5.7%,同环比+0.2/+0.3pct,财务费用率-2.7%,同环比-3.1/-1.5pct。25年Q1计提减值损失为12亿,较24Q4减少5亿。25年Q1投资收益13亿元,同环比+64%/+56%;其他收益30.8亿元,同环比-4%/-5%。

25年Q1末存货增加,为25年高景气度备货。25Q1末存货656亿元,较年初增加10%,主要为发出商品;Q1末预计负债为735亿元,较年初增16亿元;合同负债371亿元,较年初增长93亿元;账面现金3213亿元,较年初增长6%。

现金流依旧亮眼,资本开支有所增长。Q1经营性净现金流329亿元,同环比+16%/+11%,投资活动现金流净额-178亿元,同环比+125%/+1712%,筹资活动现金流净额7亿元,同环比-87%/-88%;Q4资本开支103亿元,同环比+46%/+4%。

4.投资建议

盈利预测:我们维持公司25-27年归母净利润661/802/966亿元的预期,25-27年同增30%/21%/20%,对应PE为15/12/10x,考虑到公司为全球动力电池龙头,我们给予25年28xPE,对应目标价421元,维持“买入”评级

5.风险提示

电动车销量不及预期,原材料价格波动,竞争加剧超预期。宁德时代三大财务预测表

团队介绍

往期报告:

2024.08.06:深度!【东吴电新】宁德时代:麒麟千里,神行逐电,破浪无疆

2025.03.16:【东吴电新】宁德时代2024年年报:业绩亮眼,25年高景气度可期

2024.10.19:【东吴电新】宁德时代2024年三季报:毛利率新高,实际利润大超预期

免责声明本公众订阅号(微信号:Green__Energy)由东吴证券研究所电新研究团队设立,系本研究团队研究成果发布的唯一订阅号。本公众号所载的信息仅面向专业投资机构,仅供在新媒体背景下研究观点的及时交流。本订阅号不是东吴证券研究所电新研究团队研究报告的发布平台,所载内容均来自于东吴证券研究所已正式发布的研究报告或对已发布报告进行的跟踪与解读,如需了解详细的报告内容或研究信息,请具体参见东吴证券研究所已发布的完整报告。本订阅号所载内容不构成对具体证券在具体价位、具体时点、具体市场表现的判断或投资建议,不能够等同于指导具体投资的操作性意见。本订阅号所载内容仅供参考之用,接收人不应单纯依靠本资料的信息而取代自身的独立判断,应自主做出投资决策并自行承担风险。东吴证券研究所及本研究团队不对任何因使用本订阅号所载任何内容所引致或可能引致的损失承担任何责任。本订阅号对所载内容保留一切法律权利。订阅人对本订阅号发布的所有内容(包括文字图片、影像等)未经书面许可,禁止复制、转载:经授权进行复制、转载的,需注明出处为“东吴证券研究所”,且不得对本订阅号所截内容进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节或修改。特别声明:《证券期货投资者适当性管理办法》、《证券经营机构投资者适当性管理实施指引(试行)》于2017年7月1日起正式实施。通过新媒体形式制作的本订阅号推送信息仅面向东吴证券客户中的专业投资者,请勿在未经授权前进行任何形式的转发。若您非东吴证券客户中的专业投资者,为保证服务质量、控制投资风险,请取消关注本订阅号。请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何推送信息。因本订阅号难以设置访问权限,若给您造成不便烦请谅解!感谢您给予的理解和配合。

东吴证券投资评级标准投资评级基于分析师对报告发布日后6至12个月内行业或公司回报潜力相对基准表现的预期或三板做市指数(针对做市转让标的),北交所基准指数为北证50指数),具体如下:公司投资评级:买入:预期未来6个月个股涨跌幅相对基准在15%以上;增持:预期未来6个月个股涨跌幅相对基准介于5%与15%之间;中性:预期未来6个月个股涨跌幅相对基准介于-5%与5%之间;减持:预期未来6个月个股涨跌幅相对基准介于-15%与-5%之间;卖出:预期未来6个月个股涨跌幅相对基准在-15%以下。行业投资评级:增持:预期未来6个月内,行业指数相对强于基准5%以上;中性:预期未来6个月内,行业指数相对基准-5%与5%;减持:预期未来6个月内,行业指数相对弱于基准5%以上。

我们在此提醒您,不同证券研究机构采用不同的评级术语及评级标准。我们采用的是相对评级体系,表示投资的相对比重建议。投资者买入或者卖出证券的决定应当充分考虑自身特定状况,如具体投资目的、财务状况以及特定需求等,并完整理解和使用本报告内容,不应视本报告为做出投资决策的唯一因素。

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