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  文/赵斌

  黄金价格再创历史高点。

  截至17日19时,纽约商品交易所(COMEX)黄金期货价格最高触及3371.90美元/盎司。

  2025年开年以来,金价已累计暴涨23%,华尔街投行纷纷给出惊人预测:花旗押注3500美元,摩根大通瞄准4000美元,高盛更是将目标锁定在4200美元的高位。

  这场席卷全球的金价狂飙,究竟是一场理性的避险盛宴,还是资本的投机游戏?

  地缘烽火点燃避险狂潮

  中东冲突、乌克兰危机等地缘政治风险持续刺激着黄金的避险属性。

  “当央行成为最大买家,黄金市场已不再是简单的商品交易,而是国家战略储备的竞技场。”汇管信息研究院副院长赵庆明在接受中新社国是直通车采访时表示,全球央行化身“黄金买家团”,持续净购入黄金的行为,正在打破市场供需平衡,形成巨大的供给缺口。

  特朗普政府挑起的“关税战”也推动了金价上涨。

  工信部信息通信经济专家委员会委员盘和林在接受国是直通车采访时称,这波金价上涨主要是因为全球投资人避险情绪所致,本轮避险还有个附加情况,那就是美元、美债受关税战影响,也变得不稳定。过去,投资人避险是卖出股票等风险资产,买入美元和美债,当美元和美债失去稳定性后,投资人能选择的避险资产就只剩下黄金。

  普通投资者警惕“尾声风险”

  黄金牛市正上演着现代版的“淘金热”。

  4月17日,金价单日波动超每盎司45美元,赵庆明提醒,追涨杀跌的心理陷阱,可能让投机者最终沦为市场的“韭菜”。

  赵庆明还提醒普通投资者要警惕“尾声风险”。他以1980年至2000年美国通胀周期为例,揭示了一个残酷真相,即黄金与通胀并非永远正相关。在通胀肆虐的80年代,金价反而从每盎司850美元跌至250美元。“追逐黄金避险的投资者,可能正踏入一个历史陷阱。”

  赵庆明建议,非专业投资者应远离实物黄金的“保值陷阱”。他算了一笔账:高端珠宝的溢价往往超过金价涨幅,回收时却只能按基础金价折价。他认为,用珠宝保值,就像用“奢侈品当存钱罐”,最终可能血本无归。

  消费理性与金价飙升的反差

  金价狂飙的另一面,是消费市场的理性回归。国内黄金饰品销量经历萎缩,但“存量黄金赎回潮”却暗流涌动。

  赵庆明认为,这一现象折射出投资者对金价波动的预期:“他们正在用脚投票,将黄金从饰品盒搬回银行账户”。

  投机者仍在狂欢。黄金期货市场上,多空双方展开搏杀。赵庆明称,传统定价模型已失效,机构预测沦为“水涨船高”的盲猜游戏。

  “一旦金价突破4000美元,我们会见证历史,也可能在制造泡沫。” 新闻结尾 王子不爱丑小鸭吗-发现无限可能,开启你的数字新世界!的相关文章
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