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  转自:北京商报

  据Wind数据统计,截至4月14日,1800多家A股上市公司拟分红1.82万亿元,这构成了A股公司的巨大价值基础,也是A股高安全边际的关键所在。从中长期来看,上市公司的投资价值与分红有直接关系,持续分红且稳定的公司,投资价值会被持续认可。

  近年来,A股市场在经历了多轮周期考验后,逐渐显现出一个鲜明的价值特征,持续稳定的高分红。大额分红同时揭示了一个深层次的市场规律,真金白银的分红正在成为衡量企业价值的核心标尺,也是A股抵御外部冲击、夯实价值基础的关键力量。

  回望A股市场发展历程,重融资、轻回报曾被投资者长期诟病。十年前,A股年度分红总额不足5000亿元,分红公司占比不足六成,部分上市公司甚至连续十余年未实施分红,铁公鸡现象一度引发投资者信任危机。

  但如今的A股市场,现金分红、回购股份等回报投资者的风气已然形成,部分头部公司股息率甚至超过银行理财收益率。这种转变绝非偶然,而是注册制改革下市场约束机制强化的必然结果。随着监管层鼓励一年多次分红,上市公司已逐渐形成用现金分红和回报投资者展示自身投资价值的良好习惯。

  在成熟资本市场,分红能力向来是价值投资的重要因素。当前沪深300股息率已经超过3%,相比国际成熟股市也已经具备估值优势。特别是在国际股市波动加剧的背景下,高分红板块成为资金避风港的特征愈发显著。这印证了资本市场的底层逻辑,能够持续创造自由现金流并回馈股东的企业,天然具备更强的抗风险能力和估值修复弹性。

  对于A股市场而言,1.82万亿元分红的深层意义在于推动价值发现机制的重构。分红数据成为检验上市公司盈利质量的试金石,只有能够持续进行现金分红的上市公司,才能让投资者真正做到放心持有。

  同时,持续分红还能起到倒逼企业提升资本配置效率的作用,上市公司不得不将分红和回报投资者作为自己在生产经营中必须考虑的问题,盲目投资和并购行为将会明显减少。

  随着中长期资金的持续入市,现金分红指标含金量还在不断提高。耐心资本更为关注现金分红因素,稳定现金分红的上市公司更容易获得耐心资本的青睐。

  尽管A股分红体系日趋完善,但结构性矛盾仍需警惕。突击分红、清仓式分红等现象偶有发生。导致有投资者质疑个别上市公司的巨量分红是为了给控股股东提供巨量资金支持。因此,现金分红的持续性和可预测性就显得更加重要。上市公司现金分红目的是为了回报投资者,如果存在充足的现金储备,可以考虑通过回购股份的形式来提升上市公司的每股收益水平。

  北京商报评论员周科竞

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