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  美国关税政策的影响笼罩市场,美债暂时缺乏明确方向,而投资者对持有较长期债券所要求的补贴升至了逾十年来的最高水平。

  美国10年期收益率周二基本持平于4.35%,周一一度创下1月以来的最大跌幅。与此同时,根据纽约联储的数据,期限溢价——投资者持有长期债券而非短期债券所要求的额外回报——升至71个基点,为2014年9月以来的最高水平。

  随着美国经济政策变得愈发难以预测,期限溢价持续攀升。在特朗普宣布征收全面关税又撤回部分关税后,本月一项衡量此番不确定性的指数接近纪录高点。减税提案以及提高美国政府债务上限的潜在需要也助长了这一趋势。

  YardeniResearch创始人EdYardeni在一份报告中写道:“存在推动收益率上升的切实根本性担忧,而不仅仅是投资者在市场波动时平仓。也许新的债务上限法案可能会大幅增加赤字,再加上政策的不确定性,正在推高债券的期限溢价。”

  本月初,美国财政部长贝森特表示,联邦政府可能最早在5月或6月就会面临无力按时履行所有支付义务的风险。

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