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4月22日,当地时间周一,美国总统特朗普加大了对美联储主席鲍威尔的施压力度,称他是“大输家”,并警告说,如果不立即降低利率,美国经济可能会放缓。特朗普当天在TruthSocial上写道,由于能源和食品价格下降,几乎不会有通货膨胀。在提到鲍威尔时,他表示:“但经济可能会放缓,除非大输家‘太晚’先生现在就降低利率。”鲍威尔上周在芝加哥经济俱乐部发表演讲时表示,美联储必须确保关税不会引发更持续的通胀上升,并表示美联储将“等待更明确的情况,然后再考虑对我们的政策立场进行调整”。

  另外,资管巨头警告,如果当前高关税政策持续存在,美国在2025年将“绝对”陷入经济衰退,并可能导致国内生产总值下降4个百分点。阿波罗全球管理首席经济学家TorstenSlok周一在接受CNBC采访时表示,若当前高关税水平维持不变,美国2025年陷入衰退已成定局,“这完全取决于关税是否保持在这些水平,如果保持在这些水平,我们在2025年绝对会陷入衰退。“Slok预计,如果高关税政策继续有效,美国经济连续两个季度萎缩的概率高达90%,国内生产总值将下降4个百分点。这一严峻预测远超华尔街其他机构的悲观预期,如摩根大通资产管理公司的DavidKelly此前预测的60%衰退概率。

  今日需要关注的数据有,美国4月里士满联储服务业收入指数和欧元区4月消费者信心指数初值。

  美元指数

  美元指数昨日大幅下挫,一度失守98.00关口并刷新3年低位,现汇价交投于98.50附近。除美联储的降息预期持续对汇价构成打压外,美国总统特朗普对美联储主席鲍威尔的批评打击投资者对美国经济的信心也是施压汇价下挫的重要因素。此外,美元指数在跌破99.00关口的支撑后,吸引部分技术面卖盘的介入也对加剧了汇价的跌幅。今日关注99.00附近的压力情况,下方支撑在98.00附近。

  欧元/美元

  欧元昨日大幅攀升,突破1.1500关口并刷新41个月高位,现汇价交投于1.1490附近。美元指数在美联储降息预期升温和美国总统特朗普炮轰美联储主席鲍威尔的打压下跌大幅下挫并刷新3年低位是支撑欧元攀升的主要原因。此外,市场对欧元区经济的信心有所上升也对汇价构成了一定的支撑。今日关注1.1600附近的压力情况,下方支撑在1.1400附近。

  英镑/美元

  英镑昨日震荡上行,一度突破1.3400关口并刷新7个月高位,现汇价交投于1.3380附近。美元指数在美联储降息预期和美国总统特朗普炮轰鲍威尔的打压下大幅下挫并刷新3年低位是支撑英镑攀升的主要原因。此外,对英国央行的降息预期降温也持续对汇价构成一定的支撑。今日关注1.3450附近的压力情况,下方支撑在1.3300附近。

  公募连续三周高密度调研,三大科技成长赛道包揽450次调研

  上市公司一季报和年报密集披露期,公募机构调研活动持续升温。公募排排网最新数据显示,在2025年4月14日至4月20日这一周内,A股市场迎来公募机构调研热潮,共有151家公募机构对87只个股展开深入调研,覆盖23个申万一级行业,合计调研频次高达1080次。值得注意的是,这已是公募机构连续第三周保持单周调研频次超千次的高强度态势,充分彰显了公募机构在当前市场环境下积极布局、深度挖掘投资机会的强烈意愿。

  上周A股市场整体呈现窄幅震荡格局,东方财富全A指数全周下跌4%。然而,公募机构调研个股却展现出较强的抗跌性,87只调研标的平均涨幅达0.49%,跑赢大盘4.49个百分点。其中,44只个股实现上涨,占比超过五成。从涨幅分布来看,39只个股涨幅在5%以内,另有5只个股涨幅超过10%,涨幅前十的个股均录得5%以上的可观涨幅。

  具体来看,电力设备板块的海陆重工以17.71%的周涨幅领跑,吸引了天弘基金、华夏基金等5家公募机构前来调研。同飞股份、合合信息、星帅尔、利通科技等4只个股紧随其后,周涨幅均突破10%。值得关注的是,在家用电器板块中,星帅尔和盾安环境双双跻身涨幅前十,成为上周股价表现最为亮眼的行业之一。

  上周公募机构调研重点覆盖到59只个股,被调研次数均不少于5次,平均每个工作日至少接受一次调研。具体来看,18只个股被调研5-9次,26只个股被调研10-19次,10只个股被调研20-39次,5只个股被调研不少于40次,调研次数前十个股均被调研不少于31次。银行股宁波银行上周被调研61次居首,成为上周最受公募机构调研关注个股,吸引到博时基金、华夏基金等一众头部公募机构纷纷前来调研,,同时该股股价也逆势上涨3.89%。上周公募调研次数前十个股主要集中在医药生物行业,华东医药、贝达药业和奥浦迈三只医药股携手跻身调研榜前十,占据三席,依次被调研58次、37次和36次。

  上周公募机构调研呈现明显的行业集中特征,18个申万一级行业获得10次以上调研。从调研强度来看,15个行业调研频次在10-80次区间,而医药生物、电子、计算机三大科技成长板块尤为突出,单周调研频次均突破100次大关。从覆盖广度来看,13个行业有2只以上个股获得调研,其中10个行业覆盖2-9只个股,3个行业覆盖个股数均达10只以上。

  具体来看,医药生物行业以213次调研高居榜首,覆盖12只个股;电子行业紧随其后,14只个股合计获得125次调研;计算机行业位列第三,10只个股收获112次调研。这三大科技成长板块无论是覆盖广度还是调研深度,都显著领先于其他行业。

  公募机构调研活跃度持续攀升,上周90家公募机构调研频次均达5次以上,日均至少调研1次,其中49家公募机构调研5-9次,35家公募机构调研10-19次,6家公募机构调研不少于20次,前十名调研均不低于16次,其中,博时基金以33次调研拔得头筹,其重点关注的33只个股中,同飞股份、合合信息、百亚股份表现尤为亮眼,周涨幅位居前列。工银瑞信基金以25次调研紧随其后,其调研组合中的利通科技、百亚股份、绝味食品等标的同样取得显著超额收益。华夏基金则以23次调研位列第三,其重点覆盖的海陆重工、绝味食品和科达利等个股成为上周市场中的领涨品种。

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