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我的美利坚本科岁月:重温热血青春的传奇岁月!
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财联社4月26日讯(编辑黄君芝)近几日,随着特朗普态度缓和、美联储官员释放降息信号,以及科技股的带领,美股在一段时间的“跌跌不休”下终于实现了“四连涨”。

但美国银行(BankofAmerica)似乎不相信最近的股市反弹能够持续下去,而是认为,在不确定性持续存在之际,投资者最好逢高卖出。

美银首席投资策略师MichaelHartnett建议,在不确定性彻底结束前,投资者应该趁美股、美元反弹时卖出。

他和他的团队在最新报告中指出,“我们(上半年)仍然会在债券、国际和黄金下跌时买入,在标准普尔指数/美元上涨时卖出。”Hartnett补充说,市场的“痛苦交易”表明未来还会有更多的下行空间。

报告还指出,美元正处于长期贬值趋势中,而资金撤离美国资产的趋势还将延续。这一趋势将持续到美联储开始降息、贸易战彻底结束以及消费者支出保持韧性为止。

Hartnett强调,除非三个具体的发展成为现实,否则持久的反弹是不可能发生的。

首先,美国必须达成一项贸易协议。德意志银行(DeutscheBank)在最近的一份报告中也警告称,取消关税所需的时间越长,对美国经济的影响就越严重。

其次,美联储必须通过降息来帮助推低美国国债收益率。4月份的关税闹剧给债券市场带来了冲击波,推高了基准收益率。

美联储暗示,其对市场的支持可能有助于降低收益率,如果利率下调,收益率将进一步降低。美联储官员本周的言论暗示,如果经济数据走弱,美联储准备在夏季降息。根据CME美联储观察工具的数据,市场目前预计美联储在6月会议上降息25个基点的可能性接近60%。

第三,消费者必须保持弹性。

到目前为止,Hartnett预计支出将继续保持稳健,这可能是由于劳动力市场的持续强劲。就目前而言,这降低了人们对美国消费者将陷入衰退的预期,这种衰退是由高收入家庭股本财富下降和通胀焦虑加剧推动的。

除了Hartnett外,派杰投资(PiperSandler)也在周五的报告中提醒投资者,特朗普在贸易问题上尚未改变立场。所以在经济没有遭受更大痛苦的情况下,特朗普很可能将关税维持在目前水平。投资者应保持防御姿态,直到有证据表明特朗普已经达到承受阈值。

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