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中山市

  “自上周起客户陆续停止下单了,说要‘等等看’,工厂也停产了”,在东莞市茶山镇经营一家玩具代工厂陈静,第一次直观感受到地缘政治冲击意味着什么。

  美国关税政策一变再变。白宫于当地时间4月15日宣布,中国输往美国的商品现面临最高达245%的关税。广东作为中国最大的玩具生产和出口基地,美国政府加征关税背景下,外贸从业者首当其冲。

  英国《金融时报》4月12日指出,从微波炉到芭比娃娃,美国消费者高度依赖中国产品,去年美国人购买的玩偶、三轮车、滑板车等玩具,有四分之三产自中国。

  其中,2024年,广东玩具出口额为148.11亿美元,向全球贡献了超过37%的“中国制造”玩具。

  “一下子变得特别闲。”陈静提到。她的玩具厂已经经营了20多年,面向美国市场做毛绒玩具的代加工,采用传统的出口外贸模式,客户下单才生产,员工有20多人,但上周开始都放假了。

  在湛江市经营玩具OEM公司的郑琳同样表示,渠道商已经停止了采购,生产线都处于闲置中。郑琳的工厂主要给美国玩具品牌美泰(Mattel)加工塑胶玩具。

  2024年,美泰收入为53.8亿美元,以全球玩具总销售额1080亿美元计算,这家巨头的全球占有率约5%。郑琳原以为“背靠大树好乘凉”,长期专注美国市场,但客户单一化也让公司面临黑天鹅事件时没有任何回旋余地。

  “渠道商表示,现在也没办法拿货,我们只能先观望,希望政策不会持续太久。”郑琳说。

  劳动密集型产业是受关税振荡影响最大的产业。由于商品附加值低,传统玩具制造业走的是以量取胜的道路。但翻倍的关税甚至超过商品本身的价值,无论是代工厂还是渠道商都不得不暂停生产和贸易,把希望寄托于政策改变上。

  陈静暂时没有计划发展别的市场,对于小微企业而言,新的市场意味着新的渠道拓展和人员铺设,对资金有较高的要求,目前难以负担。

  她希望能保住美国市场,一方面,去年美国订单需求出现回升,客单价也较高;另一方面,美国客户的优势在于“回款快”,一般两个月之内能够回款,而做其他市场的同行可能需要半年甚至更久。

  不过,并非所有玩具行业都受到关税冲击。另一个从传统玩具衍生出来的新品类,如潮玩、IP衍生品等,暂时没有被这场风波牵连。

  在广东,东莞跟汕头澄海区是潮玩产业的重要基地。早在2023年,东莞本土原创IP产值就超过了代工业务,占比达到53%。

  周婷在汕头市澄海区一家IP周边玩具生产公司工作,她提到,IP授权方来自广州某动漫品牌。由于美国业务偏少,目前看来关税战对公司业务没有什么影响,海外业务主要来自东南亚和欧洲市场。

  周婷提到,品牌旗下某个IP此前有拓展北美市场的计划,不过现在也要搁置,而这不完全是关税的原因,也跟中国IP文化出海“水土不服”有关。

  “IP本土化需要前期投放较大的精力,去年尝试过投放美国市场,但收益、反馈各方面没有达到预期,因此会暂时放缓铺开。”周婷分析道,美国欣赏动漫的节奏、风格跟国内出入较大,其动漫语境主打英雄主义,而公司主打中国传统文化元素和符号,会跟当地审美有一定出入。

  同样具备文化属性的潮玩行业目前受到的冲击也较小。在一家深圳潮玩设计和生产企业负责市场业务的王婷婷告诉界面新闻,“有少数实力比较弱的美国客户暂停了采购,但大型客户,例如有几百家门店以上的,反而想在关税确定之前再快速增加一批货品。”

  王婷婷所在公司旗下有多个自研IP,主打盲盒、手办等品类,生产线在东莞。其中,美国营收占整体比重在7-8%左右,通过投放在当地的线下连锁门店进行销售,包括潮牌零售商超、玩具连锁店等。在公司今年的规划里,美国业务计划达到10%。

  “整体来看没有什么影响。美国的渠道伙伴并不觉得关税会长期持续。另外一个原因是,我们上一笔大宗交易前不久就完成了,这个季度的订单已经发到美国。”王婷婷透露,该交易额达到数百万美元,消化这批货品大概需要2个月左右,加上1个月在途,因此下一笔订单可能是在下个季度,“所以美国合作方会觉得现在讨论这个事情没有什么意义,因为每天都在变。”

  关税影响较小,一方面是由于公司美国业务比重不大;而更重要的原因在于,IP属性能够抵御外部风险,产品存在溢价空间。

  王婷婷提到,即使关税情况持续,合作伙伴也认为这类产品可以增加售价,IP属性具备溢价空间:“比如,我们5美元供货给下游零售商,零售商再以20美元售出。关税政策出来后,零售商的成本变成9到10美元,终端商品涨价到24到25美元。对于消费者而言,花在情绪消费品上,20美元和25美元在体感上的差别不大。”王婷婷透露,也可能通过调整、处理报价单的方式,尝试降低成本,不过具体细节还没有讨论。

  广东玩具市场面临关税战时呈现出的分化,也隐藏着产业升级的逻辑。近年来,以自主品牌为主的一般贸易玩具出口比例不断上升,去年占总出口额比例为65.51%,标志产业从代工向品牌化转型。

  “所以代工厂跟潮玩的情况截然不同。玩具代工厂只是供应链里的一环,品牌方或渠道商可以选择别的生产基地;而IP方是终端解决方案,没有可替代性。”王婷婷说。

  另一个可供参考的案例是泡泡玛特。近期,泡泡玛特美国市场玩具公仔价格已从16.99美元上调至18.99美元,显示其定价能力。

  美银证券最新研报指出,由于关税按离岸价征收,加上泡泡玛特于美国市场毛利率预计超过75%,估计约20%的零售价上涨可抵销超过100%的关税上涨幅度。公司在2024年将10%的生产从中国转移至越南,并计划在2025年进一步扩展至东南亚和墨西哥。供应链的多元化策略也有利于降低关税风险。

  而比起海外,潮玩从业者表示会加大力度投放国内市场。王婷婷提及,中国区域占整体营收70%以上,会持续投放精力,其中新推出的一款IP有望实现过亿GMV。另外,也会拓展卡牌、拼图等新形态产品,发展多品类增长模式。

  国内潮玩市场规模即将反超传统玩具市场。广东省玩具协会数据显示,2024年,我国传统玩具市场规模预计为774.19亿元,增速约为4.6%;潮玩市场规模预计为727亿元,增速约为26%。

  来自东莞的顺林模型主营汽车模型自主品牌,公司董事长刘学深告诉界面新闻,国内业务比重为55%,近年来国内业务每年增长15%到20%,15到35岁之间的群体是消费主力。

  “东莞现在的潮玩产业增速很快,哪怕美国加了关税,对我们而言也没什么影响,因为国内需求都没消化完。加上东莞做品牌的公司增加,也能够养活周边的代工厂。例如我们公司,就把生产交给了周边十几家工厂。”刘学深说。

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