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我会很温柔不会弄疼你:解读流行趋势与社会心理!
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  4月16日下午,临近收盘,十余只宽基指数ETF大幅放量,其中多只ETF成交额较4月15日增加一倍以上,尾盘由跌转涨,引发市场关注。

  十余只宽基指数ETF大幅放量  

  下午2:43分左右,华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF、华夏上证50ETF、华夏沪深300ETF、易方达沪深300ETF、嘉实沪深300ETF、南方中证500ETF等多只基金出现大量买单,盘中交易价格直线拉升,且交易量较前一日大幅增加。

  截至收盘,华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF成交额超过80亿元,华夏上证50ETF成交额超过60亿元,华夏沪深300ETF、易方达沪深300ETF成交额均超过50亿元,嘉实沪深300ETF、南方中证500ETF成交额分别为40.77亿元、36.92亿元。

  值得关注的是,多只中证1000ETF也在尾盘出现大量买单,南方中证1000ETF、华夏中证1000ETF、广发中证1000ETF尾盘均大幅放量,其中南方中证1000ETF成交额达到24.35亿元,换手率4.05%。

  受益于大量资金涌入,多只宽基指数ETF由跌转涨。华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF收盘上涨0.23%,华夏上证50ETF上涨0.89%,华夏、易方达、嘉实等多家基金公司旗下沪深300ETF亦上涨,南方中证500ETF跌幅收窄至0.88%。

  对比前一交易日,上述宽基指数ETF成交额均出现大幅增长,华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF、华夏上证50ETF、易方达沪深300ETF、嘉实沪深300ETF、南方中证500ETF、华夏中证1000ETF的成交额均增长一倍以上;广发中证1000ETF、富国中证1000ETF成交额增幅更是超过200%。

  此外,部分A500ETF、央企科技ETF、A50ETF成交额也有所增长。

  从今日盘面来看,贵金属表现依旧强势。随着国际金价再创历史新高,近日多家知名金融机构纷纷上调黄金目标价,其中,高盛将2025年底目标价提高至3700美元/盎司。今日多只黄金股ETF涨超2%。

  此外,旅游及酒店、交通运输、饮料制造、电力公用事业等板块较为活跃。

  单日超60亿元净流入沪深300ETF

  从资金动向来看,4月15日有超69亿元资金净流入A股ETF,其中仅华泰柏瑞、华夏、易方达、嘉实旗下4只大型沪深300ETF净流入就超过63亿元。

  具体来看,华夏沪深300ETF、华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF、华夏上证50ETF、嘉实沪深300ETF分别净流入27.27亿元、15.15亿元、12.14亿元、11.32亿元。此外,易方达沪深300ETF、南方中证500ETF净流入额均在9亿元以上。

  此外,中证A500ETF、中证A50ETF在4月15日出现小幅资金净流出,多只中证A500ETF、中证A50ETF资金净流出额在1亿元以上。

  ETF动向

  沪深300ETF规模重回1万亿元 

  Wind数据显示,4月7日以来,A股ETF资金净流入合计超过1678亿元。具体来看,华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF、华夏沪深300ETF、易方达沪深300ETF、嘉实沪深300ETF这4只产品分别净流入337.46亿元、261.31亿元、244.95亿元、163.56亿元,7个交易日合计净流入超过1000亿元。此外,南方中证500ETF、中证1000ETF、华夏上证50ETF7个交易日合计净流入额均在百亿元以上。

  伴随大资金持续买入沪深300等宽基指数ETF,近期沪深300ETF规模持续增长,总规模重新突破1万亿元大关。据Wind统计数据,截至4月15日,跟踪沪深300指数的27只ETF规模合计达10068.83亿元,其中,四只为千亿ETF。规模最大的华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF达3648.42亿元,易方达沪深300ETF为2512.92亿元,华夏沪深300ETF为1806.21亿元,嘉实沪深300ETF为1604.69亿元。此外,天弘沪深300ETF、广发沪深300ETF规模均突破百亿元。

  ETF解盘

  金价再创历史新高

  黄金扮演的角色日益重要

  对于国际金价再创历史新高,永赢黄金股ETF及联接基金经理刘庭宇认为,近期美国关税政策的摇摆带来全球经济不确定性提升,同时也进一步侵蚀美元和美债信用,或推动各国央行去美元化趋势持续,黄金扮演的角色将越来越重要。

  机构投资者方面,刘庭宇认为,美国宏观周期正在由滞胀迈向潜在的衰退,随着美国通胀降温,美联储降息概率快速上升,黄金的传统投资者有望继续回流。同时,国内保险资金等长钱的流入也不容忽视,据测算本次参与黄金业务试点的保险资金投资黄金上限可达2000亿元左右,而这一规模与央行2022年至2024年的购金总量接近。此外,本世纪以来金价和美国赤字率呈现高度正相关,美国债务上限的持续上升将进一步侵蚀美债信用,因此近期美债遭到抛售、美元指数快速下行,作为美元美债的替代,金价再创历史新高。在金价中枢持续抬升背景下,黄金股的表现值得关注。

  广发中证全指电力ETF基金经理陆志明表示,在不确定因素增加的市场环境下,电力公用事业凭借“需求刚性、成本改善、高股息防御性”三重优势,成为资金短期避险的选择。

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