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かすみ果穂-探索浪漫与激情的完美结合
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かすみ果穂-探索浪漫与激情的完美结合

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  财联社4月22日讯(编辑潇湘)面对暴虐无道的“懂王”,全世界的投资者本周一再度交出了它们的市场交易“答卷”:抛售一切美国资产……

  行情数据显示,美国市场本周一再度经历了“股债汇三杀”的悲壮剧本——美元、美股、美债当天同步下跌,而且跌幅都不小。

  事实上,就连资深经济学家、RosenbergResearch的创始人兼总裁DavidRosenberg也不禁感慨,“人们曾以为,随着关税战从报纸的头版消失,我们会看到美元和股价走高,债券收益率和黄金走低。但显然不是这样。问题是,当一场危机转移到A2版时,A1版上取而代之的是(特朗普)解雇鲍威尔的威胁。想象一下,如果彼得·纳瓦罗或凯文·哈西特成为特朗普的首选,会发生什么,金价只会增加一个零。”

  值得一提的是,尽管这个周末特朗普团队试图解雇鲍威尔的做法已遭到了各方的猛烈抨击,但当地时间周一,美国总统特朗普依然加大了对美联储主席鲍威尔的施压力度,称他是“大输家”,并警告说,如果不立即降低利率,美国经济可能会放缓。

  特朗普当天在TruthSocial平台上发帖写道,由于能源和食品价格下降,几乎不会有通货膨胀。在提到鲍威尔时,他表示:“但经济可能会放缓,除非大输家‘太晚’先生现在就降低利率。”

  近期以来,特朗普一再批评鲍威尔,并暗示他有能力在任期结束前撤换美联储主席,这让华尔街感到不安。在去年大选预测中曾“大显神威”的在线预测市场Polymarket数据已显示,鲍威尔今年年底被解职的可能性目前已达到了19%。除非特朗普突然改变主意,否则这一概率——以及美元面临的压力,很可能还会进一步上升。

  Pepperstone高级研究策略师MichaelBrown表示,如果鲍威尔被解雇,人们的第一反应就将是这会给金融市场注入巨大的波动性,以及可以想象的最剧烈的美国资产抛售潮。“不仅美联储的独立性明显受到威胁,而且去美元化和摆脱美国霸权的前景也将越来越贴近现实。”

  不少全球范围内的对冲基金精英们对此也深有同感。据在场人士透露,ElliottInvestmentManagement创始人PaulSinger最近在阿布扎比的一次私人活动上警告称,美元可能会失去其储备货币地位。

  华侨银行货币策略师ChristopherWong则认为,特朗普斥责美联储有可能使美国货币政策政治化,这让市场深感不安。

  “坦率地说,解雇鲍威尔令人难以置信,“Wong称,“如果美联储的信誉受到质疑,可能会严重削弱人们对美元的信心。”

  而无论如何,在本月美国市场的动荡中,最明显的赢家之一就是黄金。

  自4月7日触及“解放日”后的低点2955美元/盎司以来,现货黄金价格已累计上涨15%,周二早盘已最高触及3444美元/盎司。今年早些时候还看似极其乐观的3500美元/盎司的部分机构预测,如今看来已不再那么遥不可及……

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