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  华尔街见闻

  对美联储独立性的担忧使投资者加大抛售美债的力度,美债作为避险资产的信用也受到了质疑。分析指出,如果美联储如特朗普所期望的转向对通胀更为宽松的立场,或者特朗普提前提名“影子主席”干预货币政策,美债市场将进一步下跌。

  美联储独立性担忧弥漫,投资者加速抛售美债。

  近几周来,由于特朗普多次施压鲍威尔降息,对美联储独立性的担忧加剧了美国国债的抛售。本周,10年期美国国债收益率一度突破4.4%,接近本月早些时候市场动荡时达到的水平。

  这一担忧推高了美债收益率的风险溢价,导致其作为避险资产的信用也受到了质疑。相关数据显示,与安全的德国国债相比,投资者因持有风险被认为更高的美国国债而获得的溢价约为1.9个百分点,高于本月早些时候的不到1.3个百分点。

  M&GInvestments的固定收益首席投资官AndrewChorlton警告说:

  如果美联储真的转向,美债可能进一步下跌

  投资者担心,特朗普可能会成功地将美国货币政策转向对通胀更为宽松的立场,以实现其降低利率的目标。

  有分析指出,如果市场察觉到这种转变,即使特朗普已收回解雇鲍威尔的威胁,美债尤其是长期债券也将受损。

  德意志银行美国利率研究主管MatthewRaskin认为,总统仍可能继续削弱美联储的独立性,通过提前提名继任者,制造一个在鲍威尔仍在任时就影响货币政策预期的“影子主席”。

  目前,关于可能人选的猜测已经开始,曾被考虑担任财政部长的美联储前理事凯文·沃什(KevinWarsh)被视为可能的替代者。沃什去年曾严厉批评美联储的政策,但近期对决策基本保持沉默。

  CapitalEconomics在一份报告中写道:“如果沃什想要这个职位,他将不得不妥协其更传统的共和党货币主义观点,并向特朗普和低利率宣誓效忠。”

  报告还提及,特朗普国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈西特(KevinHassett)是另一位潜在替代者。

  DoubleLine的Campbell表示,下一任美联储主席的任命“充满风险”,尤其是在全球投资者“开始质疑其投资的基本基础”之际。Campbell警告说,提名并暗示非传统人选——或为美联储政策转向铺路——可能引发美国国债相对于其他债券市场进一步下跌。

  风险提示及免责条款

  市场有风险,投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议,也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资,责任自负。

  周五标普500指数期货延续涨势,此前华尔街已连续三日收高,且谷歌母公司Alphabet最新季度业绩表现亮眼。

  标普500指数期货上涨0.45%,纳斯达克100指数期货上涨0.51%,道琼斯工业平均指数期货持平。

  Alphabet股价盘后跳涨约5%,因其一季度营收与利润双双超预期。作为“科技七巨头”之一,该公司业绩缓解了市场对科技股疲软的担忧。英特尔股价下跌逾5%,因其发布悲观业绩指引并宣布将大幅削减运营与资本支出。

  周四美国三大股指集体收涨,实现三日连阳,主要得益于科技巨头的反弹。过去一个月,因全球贸易紧张局势升级,科技股持续承压。

  自4月2日特朗普宣布“对等”关税政策后,股市陷入震荡格局。

  Ameriprise首席市场策略师AnthonySaglimbene指出:“市场只需一点火花就能摆脱低迷,当前涨势正是如此。但股市仍将波动,下周科技巨头财报将主导指数走向。”

  截至周四收盘,标普500指数本周累涨近4%,道指与纳指分别上涨超2%和5%。

 

  韩国SK集团的电池子公司SKOn周五表示,已被选定为美国电动汽车初创公司Slate的电池供应商。

  根据协议,SKOn将在2026年至2031年期间向Slate供应20吉瓦时的电池,并可以选择随着生产规模的扩大而增加数量。这些电池足以为大约30万辆中型电动汽车提供动力。

  合同的财务条款没有披露,但业界估计价值约为4万亿韩元(约合27.8亿美元)。

  Slate成立于2022年,总部位于密歇根州,是一家由亚马逊创始人杰夫·贝佐斯支持的电动汽车初创公司。

  该公司计划明年推出首款电动皮卡,预计售价在3万美元以下。

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