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  财联社4月24日讯(编辑杨斌)今日,2025年超长期特别国债首次招标结果重磅出炉,业内表示整体符合预期。其中,30年期特别国债中标利率为1.88%。结果落地后,上午一度下行至1.8725%的30年期国债活跃券收益率回升至1.88%。

  今年的特别国债发行提前,单期规模更大。此前30Y-10Y国债的利差走扩,随着首批发行落地,业内建议把握30Y-10Y国债利差走扩后的配置机会。

  招标结果符合预期,落地后市场小幅回调

  2025年超长期特别国债今天(24日)首次发行,根据财政部安排,本次发行20年期500亿元,30年期710亿元。

  今日11:40,超长期特别国债招标结果出炉。结果显示,20年、30年期超长期特别国债中标利率分别为1.98%、1.88%,全场倍数分别为3.11、3.66,边际倍数分别为8.42、3.43。

  在结果公布前,今日30年期国债活跃券收益率开盘后震荡下行,最多时下行了1.25BP。招标结果落地后,30年期国债收益率下行幅度收窄。至13:30,30年期国债收益率下行0.65BP至1.88%,共成交944笔。

  图:30年国债活跃券收益率日内走势

(资料来源:Wind数据,财联社整理)

  事实上,本周前几日30年期国债活跃券收益率曾有所上行。昨日(4月23日)上午,30年期国债收益率一度接近1.90%。

  业内交易员指出,部分机构对于超长期特别国债的发行提前调仓应对,但并没有出现超长债的大量卖出,表明机构没有太大的久期压力。

  根据qeubee市场预测,截止11:00时,30年期超长国债“2500002”的市场预测中值为1.88%。其中,超四成参与者预期中标利率为1.88%。

  对于今日的超长特别国债招标结果,上述交易员表示整体符合预期。“由于是特别国债,部分投资者会预期发行结果可能低于二级市场,所以招标结束后二级市场略有上行。”

  根据安排,这两期超长特别国债将在4月29日上市交易。

  今年单期特别国债规模更大,把握30Y-10Y利差走扩的机会

  根据上周公布的2025年特别国债发行安排,今年的1.3万亿特别国债共分21期发行,其中首发6期、续发15期。从发行节奏上看,今日首次招标后,5月、8月、9月都有4期超长特别国债发行,6月、7月各有3期特别国债发行,最后一期特别国债于10月10日招标。

  浙商银行FICC团队分析,今年超长期特别国债的发行期数更少,单期平均发行量更大。又因为今年的特别国债发行安排披露时间较去年提前,发力靠前、单期增量成为今年特别国债的新特点。

  华创证券固收首席周冠南预计,若各期限规模占比和单只规模的“大小月”节奏参考2024年,则今年超长期特别国债的发行高峰在5月和8月(单月达到2500亿附近),其次是6月和9月(单月达到2200亿附近),7月发行规模或在1000亿-2000亿之间。

  特别国债的发行增加了利率债供给,对市场或有所扰动,但投资者更关心超长期特别国债上市后的投资机会。

  西部证券固收首席姜珮珊建议把握30Y-10Y利差走扩中的配置机会。央行呵护下,超长期特别国债发行对资金面冲击偏中性。历史来看,超长期国债放量发行对30Y-10Y利差在发行预期与首批发行时的扰动影响更大,若发行时30Y-10Y利差突破28BP的前高可关注超长债的配置机会。

  图:30Y-10Y国债利差

(资料来源:Wind数据,财联社整理)

  浙商银行FICC团队在微信公号发文指出,目前的30Y-10Y利差处在近一年的偏高位置,超长债的交易结构并不算拥挤,长债超长债表现短期内仍比较稳定。今日首发的30年特别国债2500002会发5期,期数占比大,且首期公告710亿元,若按每期均匀发行计2500002规模会达到3100亿元。其规模相对较高,不排除未来流动性较好进而成为主力券的可能。

  韩国产业通商资源部周四表示,韩国贸易监管机构决定对两家越南公司的冷轧不锈钢产品征收反倾销关税。

  韩国贸易委员会(KTC)表示,最终决定建议财政部在未来五年内对从越南永进金属技术公司(YongjinMetalTechnologyCo)进口的不锈钢产品征收18.81%的关税,对从TVL联合股份公司(TVLJointStockCo.)进口的不锈钢产品征收11.37%的关税。

  这一决定是在韩国钢铁巨头浦项制铁控股公司(POSCOHoldings)一年前提起诉讼后做出的。

  韩国贸易委员会的结论是,越南钢铁产品在韩国的倾销对当地钢铁行业造成了“实质性”损害。

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