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日本高清一区二区三,掀起全新人类的冒险与探索之旅
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  四月以来,特朗普关税风暴引起全球市场波动加剧,南向资金买入港股引人注目。

  Wind数据显示,自4月7日“黑色星期一”以来,南向资金净流入日均136.05亿港元、总计952.36亿港元,创下2021年以来同时间段新高。

  仅4月9日当天,南向资金净买入港股超355亿港元,创造了有史以来日度净买入额新高。

  港股科技板块近期多次成为A股和港股全口径资金净流入的前5大板块之一。在指数振幅较大的4月7日、8日、9日,科技板块净流入资金分别达到了31.8亿元、41.3亿元、29.6亿元。

图:4月7日以来,港股科技多次成为全市场资金净流入的前5大板块之一来源:Wind界面新闻整理

  除了沪深300ETF、中证1000ETF等代表性较强的宽基ETF外,港股ETF也成为大量资金买入的重点标的,尤以“市场风向标”两融资金行径清晰。

  Wind数据显示,截止4月14日,恒生科技指数ETF华夏(513180.SH)、港股通互联网ETF富国(159792.SZ)、港股红利指数ETF摩根(513630.SH)、恒生科技ETF龙头(513380.SH)、恒生医疗ETF(159506.SZ)近一周融资净买入额分别为1.34亿元、0.83亿元、0.52亿元、0.27亿元、0.23亿元,位居全市场ETF的前20位。

  如果将统计范围扩展到今年以来,截至4月14日收盘,南向资金累计净流入港股已超5870亿港元,创下历史同期最高规模,日均成交净额83.67亿港元。2024年全年南向资金累计净流入8079亿港元,日均32.78亿港元。

  据中金公司3月中旬发布的研报,本轮南向流入始于2024年10月,春节后开始加速,呈现出规模大速度快的现象。2024年11月、今年1月和2月日均净流入均超50亿港元,而今年年初以来的27个交易日,有10个交易日单日净流入超100亿港元。

  多位业内人士向界面新闻记者分析,南向资金的坚定布局,本质是“低估值+政策红利+产业升级”的长期逻辑催化共同作用的结果。

  优美利投资创始人贺金龙向界面新闻记者分析,从估值层面来看,港股恒生指数长期处于全球主要市场中估值较低水平,恒生科技指数估值的市盈率截至2024年底也仅18倍,远低于纳指26倍和A股创业板35倍,低估值也带来了港股市场风险偏好的提升。

  中泰国际策略分析师颜招骏还向界面新闻记者表示,港股红利蓝筹(如中国移动00941.HK、中国海洋石油00883.HK)股息率普遍高于A股同类公司,在国内无风险利率下行背景下,也成为南向资金配置的“安全垫”。

  在政策红利层面,据颜招骏分析,如“双柜台模式”推动人民币国际化,社保、养老金等长线资金通过港股通增配港股;沪深港通ETF将再次扩容也增加了内资南下的渠道。国内监管机构明确支持内地龙头企业赴港上市,港交所同步优化上市规则(如降低特专科技公司市值门槛)。

  “此外,港股科技股在AI产业链布局更“纯正”,涵盖芯片(中芯国际00981.HK、华虹半导体01347.HK)、大模型(阿里巴巴-W09988.HK、腾讯控股00700.HK)、应用(美团03690.HK、快手01024.HK)等全链条。泡泡玛特(09992.HK)、小米集团-W(01810.HK)、毛戈平(01318.HK)等新消费龙头在港股稀缺性显著,叠加政策推动扩内需,吸引南向资金加仓。”颜招骏提到。

  从南向资金个股偏爱类型看,Wind显示,截至4月14日,南向资金偏爱净买入的个股仍然以科技类为主,前十大净流出个股则偏向生物、金融板块。

  其中,阿里巴巴-W获南向净买入已达到921.7亿港币,距离破千亿港币已近在咫尺;腾讯控股期间获南向净买入591.55亿港币,紧随其后,为第二大净买入个股。

  此外,小米集团-W、中国移动、和中芯国际(00981.HK)南向买入规模也均已超过百亿元。

截至4月14日,南向净买入/卖出个股详情来源:Wind界面新闻整理

  华安基金分析,自4月7日以来,恒生一级行业中,所有行业均下跌,必需性消费、电讯业跌幅较小,非必需性消费、能源业领跌。资金面上,南向资金净流入创2021年以来新高。上周(4月7日-4月11日)南向资金净流入约780亿人民币,而前一周为594亿元。

  从投资标的来看,华安基金建议,港股红利板块南向持仓占比高、受外资变动影响小、盈利能力相对稳定,波动或更小。在近期调整的阶段中,港股央企红利展现出较强的低波动属性,历史来看在市场低迷阶段中港股红利也更抗跌。在贸易冲突升级的背景下,虽然外资或因恐慌流出港股,但以金融为代表的港股红利板块的外资持仓相对较少,南向资金的持续流入仍利好港股红利资金面。

  在刚刚披露的一季报中,中欧互联网混合基金经理王颖表示,将继续维持港股互联网的较高仓位、强化AI推理侧和应用的配置,同时加入一些估值低位的科技消费产品。

  王颖表示,之所以维持高比例的互联网仓位,是因为她观察到,整体互联网行业在经过过去几年的业务调整后,不仅在业务优化、提质增效、股东回报等方面取得明显效果,也在技术迭代、业务创新、战略拓展方面有所突破,这对于行业重回成长通道、实现价值重估是有帮助的;同时互联网平台是国内技术和资本最为密集的企业,他们对于AI的研发投入是积极的。

  随着南向资金在港交所成交额中的比重逐年走高,港股市场的定价权也正在向南向资金转移。

  Wind显示,2024年全年,南向资金买卖总额达11.23万亿港元,占到港股全年总成额比重34.63%。而在今年以来南向资金加速流入趋势下,截至4月14日,南向资金年初至今买卖总额7.61万亿港元,占同期港交所成交额比重已提升至42.96%。

  中金公司研报分析,从长期趋势看,南向资金在大举流入阶段和聚焦的部分个股和板块上,的确存在“定价权”不断抬升的现象,典型如近两年的高分红。

  “这种定价权主要体现在持股集中度高、流动性充裕、与内地经济强关联的领域,尤其在新经济、大消费、高股息板块中,南向资金的交易行为对股价波动和估值中枢的影响显著增强。”贺金龙分析。

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