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2024年是智驾企业密集上市的一年。据《每日经济新闻》记者不完全统计,仅2024年就有高达15家智驾企业在各大交易所上市或推进上市流程,包括速腾聚创(2498.HK)、黑芝麻智能(2533.HK)、地平线(9660.HK)、文远知行(WRD.US)、小马智行(PONY.US)等。

值得注意的是,在扎堆IPO的背后,智驾上市公司在商业化层面呈现出“冷暖各异”的情况。近期,黑芝麻智能、地平线、文远知行、小马智行四家公司都公布了其上市后的首份年报。

从主要财务指标来看,地平线和黑芝麻智能主要聚焦自动驾驶芯片、自动驾驶解决方案,面向L2级辅助智能驾驶市场,2024年两家均实现了营收和归母净利润的大幅增长。而文远知行和小马智行以Robotaxi、Robotruck等业务为主,面向L4级通用自动驾驶市场,2024年仍处于规模投入阶段。

制表:每经记者刘曦

对此,辰韬资本执行总经理刘煜冬表示,目前,机构看重的是智驾公司自身实际的规模化商业应用进展,以及在新技术变革下迅速调整和适应的能力。下一阶段,智驾公司的盈利能力也是机构关注的焦点。

L2级智能驾驶渗透率飙升,研发投入成行业痛点

乘联分会数据显示,2024年,新能源乘用车L2级及以上的辅助驾驶功能装车率达67.8%,与2023年相比提升12.5个百分点。进入2025年,随着车企高喊智驾平权,L2+级别智能辅助驾驶需求旺盛,与之相对应的则是以黑芝麻、地平线为代表的面向L2级辅助驾驶市场的玩家,营收和归母净利润的大幅增长。

具体来看,黑芝麻智能2024年营收达到4.74亿元,同比增长51.8%。其中,自动驾驶产品及解决方案收入4.38亿元,同比增长58.5%;毛利率方面从2023年的24.7%提升至41.1%,归母净利润为3.13亿元。

地平线的主要业务包括自动驾驶芯片及解决方案、授权及服务。2024年,地平线全年营收达到23.84亿元,同比增长53.6%,其中授权及服务业务收入同比增长70.9%至16.47亿元,占总收入比重从2023年的62%提升至69.1%。毛利率则从2023年的70.5%提升至77.3%,归母净利润为23.47亿元。

尽管地平线和黑芝麻智能在2024财年均实现了扭亏为盈,但值得注意的是,在剔除公允价值变动等非经营性因素后,这两家公司仍存在一定程度的亏损。其中,地平线经调整后的净亏损为16.81亿元,同比扩大2.8%;黑芝麻智能经调整后的净亏损为13.04亿元,同比扩大4%。

对此,盘古智库高级研究员江瀚在接受记者采访时表示,智驾企业集中IPO,一方面是由于技术的成熟和市场潜力吸引了资本的关注。另一方面,政策支持和竞争压力也在推动智驾企业加快上市步伐。江瀚强调,自动驾驶行业需要大量的资金投入用于技术研发和市场拓展,这是一个长期的过程。

记者在上述两家企业2024年的财报中发现,两家企业均存在研发投入较高的特点。其中,黑芝麻智能2024年的研发投入达到14.35亿元,相较于2023年的13.63亿元,同比增长5.3%。地平线2024年的研发投入高达31.56亿元,同比增长33.4%,占总营收的132.4%。

L4自动驾驶待爆发,Robotaxi迎来商业化元年

今年3月13日,北京三环区域迎来了自动驾驶商业化运营的重要突破,小马智行和文远知行两家自动驾驶企业同时宣布,其Robotaxi服务正式获准在北京南站至亦庄之间开展收费运营。4月1日,《北京市自动驾驶汽车条例》正式生效,符合国家规定条件的自动驾驶汽车,可以用于个人乘用车出行。

随着Robotaxi运营区域的持续拓展及政策的有力支持,这一领域正迎来新的发展契机。不过,与L2级辅助驾驶的快速普及和成功商业化落地相比,以Robotaxi为代表的L4级自动驾驶企业的发展步伐则稍显缓慢。

营收层面,2024年小马智行同比小幅增长4.35%至5.39亿元,文远知行则是出现了10%的负增长为3.61亿元。在毛利率方面,小马智行和文远知行分别为15.2%和30.66%。在归母净利润方面,两家仍处于亏损阶段,文远知行2024年净亏损达25亿元,是营收的7倍;小马智行净亏损近20亿元,是营收的3倍。

记者发现,小马智行亏损与运营费用支出大幅增长有关。财报显示,小马智行2024年的运营费用(包括研发费用,销售、一般和管理费用等)同比增长85.4%达到2.97亿美元。文远知行亏损扩大的主要原因也是由于开支较高,尤其是研发费用占比近半。2024年,文远知行的营业费用为22.8亿元,同比增长33.7%,其中研发费用为10.9亿元,同比增长3.1%。

德邦证券研报表示,Robotaxi的发展高度依赖技术、政策支持和资金投入。其中,技术是核心动力,涵盖软件和硬件两大关键领域;政策支持则是商业化的重要推动力。中金公司研报显示,Robotaxi尽管商业化进展较慢,但市场潜力巨大。据美国NHSTA报告显示,94%的交通事故因是人为因素导致,自动驾驶技术可有效规避这些风险,减少道路伤亡。弗若斯特沙利文预测,到2030年,中国与全球Robotaxi的市场规模预计将分别达到4888亿元和8349亿元。

不过,如何坚持到Robotaxi市场迎来爆发,仍是小马智行、文远知行等L4级通用自动驾驶公司亟待解决的难题之一。对此,小马智行副总裁、Robotaxi业务负责人张宁此前在接受记者采访时表示:“小马智行计划在2025年实现单车盈亏平衡,但要支撑高额研发成本,仍需扩大运营规模。”

“今年更像是Robotaxi商业化逐步放量的元年。之前,无人驾驶的体验还相对有限,没有那么快走进寻常百姓家。但今年,随着更多城市逐步开放,以及上千台车辆的逐步下线,小马智行的运营规模和体量将增加5倍甚至10倍。因此,今年也是证明商业模式可行性的关键一年。”张宁称。

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