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童媛媛和老赵:揭开梦境与现实交错的神秘面纱!
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  汇通财经APP讯——本周三亚洲交易时段,美元兑日元汇率再度下探至142.30附近,逼近上周低点。这已是美元兑日元连续第五日承压,反映出投资者在贸易政策反复无常下重新涌向日元等传统避险资产。

  美方周末决定对部分电子产品(包括智能手机与计算机)暂时豁免关税,缓解了部分市场压力,但紧接着特朗普又威胁将对半导体与医药品加征新一轮关税,引发全球市场再次陷入波动。

  “美国贸易政策缺乏连贯性,导致市场对全球经济增长前景愈发担忧,这种情绪直接推升了日元的避险买需。”——东京外汇分析师小泽卓也(TakeyaOzawa)

  周三公布的数据显示,日本2月核心机械订单月率增长4.3%,远高于前值-3.5%,创下一年来最大增幅。分项数据显示,制造业订单增长3%,非制造业订单更是暴增11.4%,显示企业投资意愿正在回暖。

  这一数据强化了日本经济复苏的趋势,并可能推动企业加薪,从而支撑消费与通胀上行。

  据市场调查显示,日本核心CPI已连续数月保持在2%以上,远高于日本央行的目标水平。

  这使得市场预期日本央行在2025年上半年可能再次加息,以控制结构性通胀。这种加息预期与美联储转向宽松的政策前景形成鲜明对比,为日元提供强劲支撑。

  美联储或将在6月重启降息,美元失宠加剧日元上行空间

  市场目前预期美联储将在6月开始新一轮降息周期,全年降息幅度可能高达100个基点。这使得美元长期收益率下行,资本流出压力上升。

  投资者正密切关注美联储主席鲍威尔周三的讲话,以获取未来利率路径的更多线索。同时,美国4月零售销售数据也将在晚间公布,可能成为美元短线波动的触发点。

  特朗普在上周表示,美日双方正就“公平但强硬”的贸易条款进行谈判,美国财政部长贝森特也表示日本将成为关税谈判的重点国家,这令市场对未来达成美日贸易协议抱有乐观预期。

  贸易紧张局势若能缓解,或将进一步提振日本出口企业盈利能力,强化日元在经济基本面层面的支撑。

  从技术角度看,美元兑日元在143关口上方连续遭遇卖压,暗示空头力量仍占主导。日线图动能指标处于深度负值区域,说明汇价下行趋势远未结束。

  下方支撑:142.25–142.00区间为多月低点区域,若跌破或触发新一轮抛售,目标或看向141.50和140.80;

  上方阻力:若反弹至143.60仍受压,则144.00将成为主要阻力区域。若突破该位,可能出现短期空头回补,推动汇价向145.50及146.00进发。

  编辑观点:

  日元目前具备“避险属性增强+日本经济复苏+利差逻辑回归”三重支撑。从全球货币政策的角度看,日本央行正朝着政策正常化迈进,而美联储则被迫重启宽松周期,这种方向性的背离是推动USD/JPY下行的根本驱动因素。

  短期内,若特朗普继续在关税问题上释放强硬信号,且美联储传达鸽派立场,则美元兑日元有望下探至140附近。

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