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  中国货币市场

  人工智能在我国支付领域得到广泛应用,相应地对我国央行的履职能力产生一定的影响。文章从支付视角详细分析人工智能给我国央行带来的机遇与挑战,并提出应对策略。

  近年来,凭借强大的数据处理能力和自我学习能力,人工智能在我国支付领域得到广泛应用,影响力不断扩大。它不仅重塑了支付行业,相应地提升了我国央行监管洗钱欺诈、分析经济金融形势、制定货币政策和监测金融风险的能力,还带来新的问题。对于人工智能技术而言,我国央行不仅是监管者,还是使用者。因此,我国央行既要抓住机遇,又要迎接挑战,驾驭人工智能向善履行好职责。

  一、支付视角下人工智能带给我国央行的机遇

  (一)有助于提升支付数据获得水平

  人工智能在支付领域广泛应用后,进一步简化了支付流程,提高了支付效率,提升了支付体验,为个人带来智能化、个性化的支付服务,促使更多的人使用非现金支付。支付是一种经济活动,它将消费者、商家、企业、金融机构连接起来。商家和企业及时分析收集到的销售情况,有助于商家精准营销及企业开发出符合消费者需求的新产品。金融机构利用客户数据对其画像,精准营销理财产品和贷款。这些微观经济活动都是依靠支付完成,相应地在金融机构生成了支付数据,最终使我国央行获得整个社会的、以市场需求为中心的支付数据。

  (二)有助于提升洗钱欺诈监管水平

  当前我国金融机构普遍运用机器学习、知识图谱等人工智能技术完善支付业务监控模型,对海量支付数据进行实时监测、智能分析和及时预警,实现对可疑交易和欺诈行为进行精准化识别、自动化拦截和智能化处置,极大地提升了对洗钱、欺诈等犯罪行为防范的及时性和准确性,有力地打击了洗钱、支付欺诈等违法违规行为,提高了洗钱、支付欺诈监管工作水平,同时还能为我国央行提供反映真实经济活动的支付数据。

  (三)有助于提升经济金融分析水平

  我国央行传统的经济金融分析主要依靠少量、静态、单一的统计数据开展,存在一定的局限性。人工智能广泛应用于支付领域后,我国央行能够获得更为全面的、反映市场需求和真实经济活动的支付数据,为经济金融分析及时提供了海量、动态、多样的数据资源。这些海量的支付数据关系复杂,结构各异,个人无法处理。但是借助机器学习模型,充分发挥其高效安全处理数据和强大学习能力的优势,对海量支付数据进行智能关联和深入分析,挖掘出其中的关联关系,可使我国央行能够及时准确捕捉到经济金融运行的变化趋势,前瞻性做好经济金融形势的预研预判,为宏观调控决策提供更加高效、更加精准的信息支持。特别是,我国央行可以运用大模型对特定事件进行推演,分析其产生原因、影响因素和最终结果,从而进行提前预判和评估,以便快速出台政策应对。

  (四)有助于提升货币政策制定水平

  长期以来,为促进经济高质量发展,我国央行一直寻求最优的货币政策组合,但受到多种因素的制约。现在,人工智能凭借其强大的数据处理能力和自我学习能力,为实现这一目标提供了巨大助力。我国央行运用人工智能高效数据处理能力对海量支付数据进行挖掘分析,了解各个行业、地区的发展状况和资金需求情况,然后进行政策模拟,筛选出最优的货币政策组合,引导金融机构加大对重大战略、重点领域和薄弱环节的信贷支持力度,促进实体经济高质量发展。不仅如此,我国央行还能通过对支付数据分析,及时获得货币政策执行后的情况,快速作出反应,主动进行微调。

  (五)有助于提升金融风险监测水平

  传统的金融风险监测办法主要是金融机构每月向央行报送报表,人工根据监测指标进行分析判断,存在一定的时间滞后性,难以及时发现金融风险,容易错失防范金融风险的最佳时机。特别是在当前全球金融一体化的时代,金融风险的联动性更强,传播速度更快,这种传统办法难以满足快速、准确监测金融风险的要求。人工智能的应用给监测金融风险带来了机会,通过机器学习等人工智能技术,实时监测金融体系运行情况,对海量支付数据进行实时分析,不仅能迅速找出潜在的金融风险,还能及时发现金融风险的形成原因、传播途径,提高对金融风险的精准识别能力和应对速度,帮助我国央行对金融风险做到早识别、早预警、早处置,提高对系统性金融风险的防范能力,更好地维护金融稳定。

  二、支付视角下人工智能带给我国央行的挑战

  (一)缺乏人工智能应用法律规范

  我国央行是支付行业的监管者,人工智能在支付领域的应用必须接受其监管,使之规范发展。目前我国没有出台专门的《人工智能法》,更没有制定规范人工智能在支付领域应用的法律规定。现有的规范人工智能的法律规定是2023年7月13日网信办等7部委联合发布的《生成式人工智能服务管理暂行办法》,但它只是部门规章,效力等级较低,规范力度有限,针对性不强。这种现状使央行在履行支付监管职责时面临无法可依问题,且难以解决。问题主要有:一是没有建立人工智能在支付领域应用的市场准入和退出机制。二是没有建立对人工智能在支付领域应用的算法和模型的合规性、安全性、有效性进行持续评估的制度。三是当前人工智能在支付领域很多场景得到广泛应用,每种服务在功能、安全等方面存在较大差异,一旦发生问题,责任主体难以界定,后续处理难度比较大,成本比较高。四是人工智能的算法和模型十分复杂,普遍存在黑箱问题,其决策过程不透明,输出结果较难解释,不容易被外界理解。如果出现偏差,容易影响使用者准确作出决策。

  (二)削弱数量型货币政策调控的有效性

  由于人工智能的辅助,越来越多的人选择使用非现金支付,导致现金被进一步替代,降低了现金漏损率,提高了货币流通速度,放大了货币乘数。同时,消费者可以通过移动支付快速实现活期存款、货币型基金等不同金融资产之间的相互转换,而且转换成本为零,这提高了消费者货币需求对利率变动的敏感程度,在目前低利率时代使得不同层次货币供应量之间的边界更为模糊,基础货币的结构发生改变。这些变化进一步导致货币供给量的可测性、可控性下降。基础货币、货币供应量分别是现阶段我国货币政策的中介目标、操作目标,可测性、可控性是它们有效发挥作用的基本标准。人工智能的应用在一定程度上减弱了我国央行调控货币供应量的能力,使得传统的数量型货币政策传导效果受到干扰,有效性被削弱,增加了我国央行运用货币政策工具调控的难度。

  (三)容易引发更多的金融风险

  目前人工智能在支付领域多个场景获得广泛应用,使支付变得更加高效、智能,在已有的支付业务风险外,还可能带来新的金融风险。主要表现为:一是大多数人工智能模型由少数实力强大的金融科技公司开发提供,这导致金融机构在使用或改编这些公司开发的模型时,对金融科技公司过于依赖,加剧了集中度风险。二是大部分金融机构使用的模型相同或相近,大概率会使用相同的算法,将会加剧羊群效应,进一步放大市场波动,容易引发系统性金融风险,不利于金融稳定和宏观审慎管理。三是人工智能的训练和使用需要用到大量支付数据,因此做好支付数据的收集、存储和使用是人工智能技术成功应用的前提。当前部分金融机构收集、存储、处理支付数据存在不规范的问题,再加上安全防范意识不足,缺乏有效的技术保护手段,一旦遭受不法分子的恶意攻击,就会造成支付数据和个人隐私泄露。

  (四)增加复合型人才培养难度

  当前人工智能技术发展迅速,在金融领域得到广泛的应用。因此,不论是作为监管者,还是作为使用者,我国央行支付结算、调查统计、货币政策、金融稳定等部门员工不仅要精通本部门业务,还要与时俱进熟悉人工智能技术,这对员工的素质提出更高的要求。目前的现状是既熟悉业务、又懂人工智能的复合型人才不多。如何在提升现有人力知识技能水平的同时吸引高级人工智能人才加入,给我国央行人才队伍建设带来了挑战。

  三、我国央行的应对建议

  (一)不断健全法律规定体系

  一是尽快出台《人工智能法》。既要借鉴欧盟制订《人工智能法案》的成功经验,不生搬硬套,又要充分考虑我国人工智能产业发展的实际情况,做到安全与发展并重、监管与创新并重,为人工智能规范发展提供坚实的法律保障。二是我国央行要相应地根据《人工智能法》和支行行业的实际情况制定配套的管理办法,从而安全稳妥有序地推进人工智能在支付领域的广泛应用。例如要建立人工智能在支付行业应用的市场准入和退出机制;要求金融机构对算法和模型的合规性、安全性、有效性进行持续评估,发现问题及时解决;要求建立人工智能应用时出现问题的后续处理程序、责任划分和资金补偿机制,确保消费者权益不受侵犯;要求提升人工智能应用的透明度,提高生成内容的可靠性和准确性,等等。

  (二)持续推进货币政策转型

  人工智能的辅助使非现金支付得到更加广泛的使用,削弱了数量型货币政策工具的使用效果,提高了消费者货币需求对利率变动的敏感程度,为我国货币政策工具选择从数量型转向价格型提供了契机。国际经验表明,当前各国货币政策框架逐步淡化数量目标,已经取消了部分数量指标,转而以价格调控为主。因此我国央行在选择和制定货币政策时,要根据经济金融运行情况逐步淡化数量型货币政策工具的使用,更加注重对利率等价格型货币政策工具的运用力度和频率,充分发挥其调节配置金融资源的作用,促进实体经济高质量发展。

  (三)大力加强金融风险防范

  一是我国央行在鼓励人工智能在支付领域积极应用的同时,要正确对待人工智能应用过程中带来的错综复杂的金融风险,不断健全金融风险监测、评估、预警和处置体系,精准有效预判、评估、防控金融风险,防止其扩大为系统性金融风险。二是我国央行要按照“相同风险、相同监管”原则,根据金融科技公司的运营情况、风险管理水平,将其与银行同等对待以进行监管,防范集中度风险。三是我国央行督促金融机构要按照《个人信息保护法》《数据安全法》规范支付数据收集、存储、使用等环节的安全标准,实现支付数据全生命周期统一管理,保障支付数据的质量。要不断完善支付数据安全管理制度,把安全管理责任落实到人。要采取分类分级防护、访问权限控制、敏感信息脱敏处理等安全措施,积极做好支付数据的安全保护工作,避免支付数据的丢失、篡改或泄露。

  (四)抓紧培养复合型人才

  一是当前我国知名高校已经开设人工智能专业,我国央行可与其合作,对员工进行系统培训,使他们成为既精通金融业务、又熟悉人工智能技术的高素质复合型人才。二是持续开展岗位培训,邀请人工智能知名专家为员工授课,让员工了解人工智能前沿动向,提高使用技能,以便他们能够自如地适应人工智能技术的快速发展、更好地履行职责。三是我国央行要制定有吸引力的职业发展规划并营造良好的工作环境,为员工提供成长机会,从而留住现有人才,进而吸引顶尖人才加入。

  据韩联社,韩国全州地方检察厅24日表示,以涉嫌违反《特定犯罪加重处罚法》(贿赂)而对前总统文在寅提起不捕直诉。

  报道称,检方其间就文在寅前女婿“航空公司开小灶聘用”疑点进行了调查。检方指控,文在寅涉嫌与女儿文多惠和前女婿徐某合谋,拜托前议员、易斯达航空创始人李相稷实际持有的泰国易斯达航空公司违规聘用徐某。

  李相稷2018年3月担任中小风险企业振兴公团理事长时,徐某入职泰国易斯达航空并担任高管。徐某在泰国易斯达航空担任高管期间(2018年8月至2020年3月)获得1.5亿韩元(约合人民币76.5万元)薪酬和6500万韩元住宿补贴。

  根据报道,检方认为,文在寅在徐某被聘用后暂停对文多惠夫妇的经济支持,可将其视为徐某就业给文在寅带来直接的经济利益。检方表示,经查发现,青瓦台民政秘书室和特别监察组、总统警卫处等曾为文多惠夫妇赴泰国旅居提供各种帮助。检方表示,此案核心在于总统行使权限,通过政治家兼企业家李相稷实际持有的航司为其女儿夫妇提供特惠。

  另外,检方还针对李相稷以涉嫌行贿及渎职提起公诉,并暂缓对文多惠和徐某提起公诉。

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